1/4
"Smaller enterprises account for 60 per cent of China's GDP and 80 per cent of urban employment. But they have also suffered the brunt of the economic downturn brought by the pandemic, despite tax and fee cuts from the government."
scmp.com/economy/china-… via @scmpnews
2/4
Lower fees and taxes, easier credit, better infrastructure, and other supply-side measures can help private-sector businesses if their problem consists mainly of high costs, scarce or expensive credit, or other constraints on their abilities to serve burgeoning demand.
3/4
This was certainly the case during most of the past four decades. These same supply-side measures cannot help, however, if the main problem is weak demand, which seems to have become the case in the past several years.
4/4
But while the problems facing smaller, private sector businesses seem to have changed, the kinds of solutions offered by local governments don't seem to have.

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More from @michaelxpettis

3 Jan
1/4
SCMP: "Beijing intends for consumption to play the role of a 'ballast stone' to counter external headwinds, according to a five-year document released by multiple authorities on Friday."
scmp.com/economy/china-… via @SCMPNews
2/4
The document goes on to say: "It is urgent for us to improve the quality and capacity of consumption, to unleash the potential of domestic consumption, and to build a strong domestic market."
3/4
They're right, of course, but they've been saying this for 15 years without getting much closer to doing so. And it's still not clear that regulators are any closer to understanding how to rebalance domestic demand.
Read 4 tweets
3 Jan
1/6
This seems pretty significant: according to a PBoC survey, "a majority of Chinese residents think home prices will stay unchanged or fall in the first quarter of 2022."
english.news.cn/20220102/873fb…
2/6
The Xinhua article provides the details: "56.7% of respondents expect home prices to remain flat during the first quarter, while 15.2% forecast a fall. Some 16.8% of respondents expect an increase in home prices."
3/6
This matters because speculative markets rise mainly on expectations of further rises. For many years the main reason for buying hugely overpriced apartments in China's major cities was the expectation that prices could only go up.
Read 6 tweets
2 Jan
1/7
While infrastructure investments in the Suez Canal Economic Zone will probably help strengthen China's export capacity, I wish Beijing showed the same enthusiasm and dynamism in developing domestic consumption.
scmp.com/news/china/dip… via @scmpnews
2/7
I've been reading a great deal about Japan's attempts to recover growth in the 1990s, including its recognition fairly early on that until it boosted domestic consumption it was unlikely either to achieve reasonable growth rates or get debt debt under control.
3/7
The problem for Japan seems to be the difficulty in adopting the institutional adjustments that were part of any significant rebalancing of demand, among the most rigid of which was Japan's over-reliance on exports as the main source of manufacturing profitability.
Read 7 tweets
28 Dec 21
1/5
The deputy director of a Chinese research institute argues that in order to prevent provincial debt problems from getting worse, local governments must cut back on wasteful infrastructure spending.
caixinglobal.com/2021-12-24/opi…
2/5
"Based on the structure of expenditure in these regions," he says, "the only way to alleviate debt risks is to reduce general expenditures by reducing unnecessary infrastructure expansion, and to improve the efficiency of investment in infrastructure and public transport."
3/5
While there are still a few people who don't think wasted infrastructure spending is a major source of China's soaring debt burden, by now most economic policymakers and advisors seem to recognize how serious the problem has become.
Read 5 tweets
27 Dec 21
1/11
Zhou Xin makes a very important point here – obvious to my economist friends who specialize in Latin America, but not always to those who specialize in China – about the intense pro-cyclicality of high levels of infrastructure spending.
scmp.com/comment/articl… via @scmpnews
2/11
It always works the same way: high levels of spending create rapid growth in economic activity, which in turn justifies even higher levels of spending. This can continue long after the growth in economic activity has become illusionary.
3/11
As rapid growth in the past encourages predictions of rapid growth in the future, these predictions are used to justify the need for even more infrastructure, on the grounds that at the pace at which it is growing, China will soon outgrow its existing infrastructure.
Read 11 tweets
27 Dec 21
1/11
Good article. While a 2021 current account surplus of 6.8% of GDP is better than the 8.6% it ran in 2016, the fourth largest economy in the world should not be running persistent surpluses anywhere near this level.
wsj.com/articles/germa… via @WSJ
2/11
They create huge problem for the rest of the world, and especially for Germany's European partners. I am surprised there hasn't been a lot more pushback from the countries who have had to absorb the bulk of the country's beggar-thy-neighbor policies.
3/11
Germany’s current account surplus is 2-4 times the levels that Japan and China are running. Even if the surplus does decline to 5.5% in 2022, as @TomFairless suggests here, this is still irresponsibly large, and the world should not be forced to absorb it.
Read 11 tweets

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