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Trung Phan Profile picture
@TrungTPhan
Jan 2, 2022 • 21 tweets • 9 min read • Read on X
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When Steve Jobs unveiled the iPhone in Jan 2007, the maker of BlackBerry — Research in Motion (RIM) — had a market cap near Apple's ($60B vs. $75B).

Now, it’s $5B vs. ~$3T.

While Jobs positioned iPhone perfectly, RIM made 5 decisions that led to its fall.

Here's a breakdown🧵
1/ The BlackBerry vs. iPhone story is not as clean as it seems in hindsight. When iPhone officially hit markets in June 2007, many thought it would fail.

Former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer famously balked at the price ($500) and design ("no keyboard").

Tech media was skeptical:
2/ Blackberry sales actually grew for many years after iPhone's launch.

In 2007, RIM moved <10m BlackBerry units.

In 2011, RIM moved more than 5x the units, selling 50m+ handsets for the year.
3/ The Research in Motion (RIM) story begins in 1984 in Waterloo, Ontario.

Founded by two engineering students -- Mike Lazaridis and Douglas Fregin -- RIM started as a consultancy.

But after a contract with Canadian telecom firm Rogers, it started making wireless technology.
4/ RIM launched its first successful device in 1997: Inter@ctive Pager.

The device was a 2-way pager that could send text messages. Priced at $675 with a compact keyboard, corporate exces loved it.

RIM IPO'd in 1998 with sales at $20m+. It raised $100m to expand its device biz.
5/ Blackberry made 2 big leaps in the following years:

◻️1999: Inter@ctive Pager 850 supported email from Microsoft exchange server (email on-the-go was a killer app)
◻️ 2000: Blackberry 957 was the first familiar phone form factor (w/ calendar, email, contacts)
6/ The first voice-enabled BlackBerry smartphone was in 2002 (but -- absurdly -- you had to use earphones to talk).

From there, BlackBerry released new models w/ additional functionality: *actual* voice, track wheel, camera, Bluetooth + more.

RIM crossed $1B sales in FY 2005.
7/ By 2008, BlackBerry was ubiquitous. Sales doubled to $6B vs. prior year.

Its addictiveness -- especially Blackberry Messenger (BBM) feature -- earned it the name "Crackberry".

Large corps and govn’t orgs relied on it (incoming President Obama was a huge fan).

What happened?
8/ Decision #1: Keyboard

Blackberry pioneered mobile typing. The keyboard was its brand and RIM was slow to embrace touchscreen.

Steve Jobs focused his iPhone reveal on Apple’s superior touch experience:
9/ Decision #2: Software

Blackberry made some very bad decisions with its mobile OS:

◻️It was slow to develop an app store ecosystem (developers flocked to Apple, Android)
◻️It believed — like Adobe — that Flash was the future of mobile (very wrong)
10/ Decision #3: Lack of consumer focus

Corporates and governments relied on Blackberry for its security and email.

Serving this market helped build RIM into a $60B+ firm. But by being satisfied with its 10s of millions of Enterprise users, it lost out on billions of consumers.
11/ Decision #4: BBM

A big consumer fumble was locking the uber-popular Blackberry Messenger (BBM) to RIM hardware.

Younger consumer (eg KimK) were huge BBM boosters. Cross-platform messaging was a huge opportunity (read: FB’s $19B WhatsApp acquisition in 2014) that RIM missed.
12/ Decision #5: Carrier

In 2006, neither Android or Apple had a carrier relationship. And when iPhone first launched, it did so exclusive to AT&T.

RIM had an opportunity to win millions of Verizon customers that wanted a touchscreen phone…but totally flopped w/ the Storm.
13/ While RIM peaked at 50m+ units sold in 2011 ($19B sales), that was the first full year iPhone outsold BlackBerry.

Blackberry share of the exploding smartphones fell from 21% in 2009 to 2% in 2013 (same year RIM renamed to Blackberry).

It stopped making phones in 2016.
14/ Blackberry is now a $5B firm that mainly sells cybersecurity software.

On Jan 4, it shuts down text, call and data for legacy phones.

Blackberry’s success — combined w/ complacency — locked it into a losing hand. Its sales chart captures the post-iPhone story arc perfectly:
15/ If you enjoyed that, I write interesting threads 1-2x a week.

Def follow @TrungTPhan to catch them in your feed.

Here's one you might like:
16/ PS. I also write a weekly newsletter that rounds up hilarious memes and tweets on trending tech, business and internet topics

trungphan.substack.com
17/ Sources

Company Man:

MakeUseOf: makeuseof.com/the-reasons-bl…

Pocket Lint: pocket-lint.com/phones/news/13…

Investopedia: investopedia.com/articles/inves…



The Verge: theverge.com/platform/amp/2…
18/ Here's another slide from Steve Jobs iPhone reveal in Jan 2007. It shows a 2x2 matrix with these axes:

◻️”smart” / “not so smart”
◻️ “hard to use” / “easy to use”

Apple has since sold more than $1 trillion worth of iPhones.

LESSON: Always be in the top right quadrant.
19/ Here is a great insight on BlackBerry vs. Apple missing from the thread.

via: libertyrpf.com/p/223-blackber…
20/ The good people at BBC asked your boy to hop on to discuss BlackBerry vs. Apple

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More from @TrungTPhan

Trung Phan Profile picture
Jan 25
This timelapse of Alex Honnold’s 1 hour 35 minute free solo climb of Taipei 101 is unreal.

He said the main challenge was “not getting complacent up the bamboo boxes, because it’s 64 of the same sequence over and over.”

His music playlist (mostly Tool) helped because each bamboo box took about the length of a song and he could keep pace.

Honnold wants to climb other mega skyscrapers if allowed.

Thinks Taipei 101 was the ideal challenge, though: “This one is so perfect for climbing. There are some buildings that are almost too easy for climbing. Like, ones that have a window washing track on the outside, where you’re just hand over handing on some track the whole way. You can climb it, but it’s not a challenge. The thing about Taipei 101 is it’s perfectly in the sweet spot for me, where it’s possible, and it’s not too insanely hard.”

***

Post-climb intervie with Variety: variety.com/2026/tv/news/a…

Timelapse: reddit.com/r/nextfuckingl…
Honnold says the scariest parts were the dragons:

“The dragons, they’re also probably the scariest thing to actually do. I mean, they’re really fun, they’re really cool. It’s an incredible sequence, cool position. But every time I set up on the dragon, I’d be like, “this is kind of crazy.” You’re like, out over the abyss. It’s cool.”Image
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x.com/climbingcoachx… x.com/climbingcoachx…
Read 4 tweets
Trung Phan Profile picture
Jan 16
Matt Damon and Ben Affleck on Rogan taking about how Netflix has changed filmmaking.

A major considerations is dealing with distracted viewers. To keep them tuned in, “you re-iterate the plot 3-4x in the dialogue because people are on their phones.”

Then, in action films, you change the ordering of climatic fights.

In traditional action films, you’d have “three set pieces” in every act (I, II, III) and each would “ramp up” (spend the big money on third set piece).

But streaming has to hook viewers within 5 minute, so the incentive is to put a major battle or action sequence much earlier.

Also, the directors have less incentive to make a film look great because so many people watch on laptops and phones.

They do say that streaming allows for more bets on risky projects since the theatre economics are geared towards IP, sequels and super-heroes.

Example: an independent film with a $25m budget would spend $25m on marketing (1:1 ratio). But since it splits box office with the theatre, the film needs to make $100m (1/2 of which is $50m) just to break even.

They’re realistic about the state of film and call it a supply-demand issue. If the demand is for at-home viewing (eg. Netflix 300m+ subs), then filmmaking approach will change to feed the algo.

When there’s demand for theatre, Damon will go team up with Christopher Nolan to make “The Odyssey”.
A similar dynamic is happening to streaming TV shows. The incentives for story arc, dialogue and character types warped thr medium.

I explain it more here: readtrung.com/p/the-case-aga…
Damon cooks.

Here is full Rogan: youtu.be/AVEZBy1uAk8?si…

Here is Hot Ones: youtu.be/yaXma6K9mzo?si… x.com/trungtphan/sta…
Read 4 tweets
Trung Phan Profile picture
Jan 15
The Economist has a great piece on strategy sportsbetting apps use to throttle smart bettors:

▫️Skilled players are “sharps” and given “stake restrictions” if they play too well (bets are capped).

▫️Rest of players called “Square”.

▫️In 2025, 4.3% of active UK accounts had a “stake factor” below the maximum bet allowance of 100%.

▫️Sportsbook will take bets with a profit margin as low as 4.5%.

▫️If they are able to do good “player-profiling” and keep the “sharps” from playing, the profit margin can reach 10-20%.

▫️As important as keeping out “sharps” is hooking “whales”, the deep-pocketed players that are willing to keep playing (and losing) large sums.

▫️Some “whales” are actually “sharps” in disguise, though. They’ll lose a bunch of bets to lull the sportsbook then put down a massive bet when they have an edge.

▫️While there is a risk of a “whale” being a “sharp”, the value of a real “whale” is so high that sportsbook will take the risk

▫️“In March 2024 PointsBet, raised its share of online sports-gambling revenue in New Jersey from 11% to 24% after wooing a single cash-spouting customer away from DraftKings.” (I can confirm that this wasn’t me).

▫️How sportsbook profile players:

> Playing on Mobile is a good sign (where majority of people play)
> Playing on PCs is a bad sign (it’s easier to compare odds and run models)
> E-wallets are a red flag (sportsbooks prefer debit direct deposit that can attach a player to a single account; e-wallet is more anonymized and players can move cash between sportsbook more quickly to shop for the best odds)
> Women bettors are a red flag (most bettors are men and “sharps” often use women to place bets)

▫️First wagers are a major tells (typical bettors go after top leagues — NFL, NBA, EPL — and do so near the start of the game).

▫️Popular bets for “squares”: who will win, scoring margins and how star player will perform (also, they love multi-leg parlays).

▫️“Sharps” go after less popular leagues and place bets as soon as odds are published, when they are most mispriced. They also go after less popular bets such as “pts in Q3” or stats from a random player (“Sharps” rarely do parlays and don’t withdrawal winnings often).

▫️One gambling consultant tells The Economist that “By the time a customer places his first bet, [sportsbooks] are 80-90% certain they know the lifetime value of the account.”

▫️”Sportsbooks look at a player’s ‘closing-line value’ — a measure that compares the odds at which he bets with those available right before a match begins. If it is consistently ahead of the market over his first ten wagers, he is highly likely to beat the book in the long run.”

▫️Sportsbook mathematically monitor players and creates a new risk score every 6-8 hours (risk score = estimate of probability that customers will wind up unprofitable).

▫️E-wallet users, women and bets over $100 are flagged. These suspicious bettors are given 30% of maximum bet (and proven sharps only allowed 1%).

▫️High-skilled players will often get a “beard” to bet on their behalf. Most sportsbooks ban this practice but it is widespread.

▫️Safest “beards” are close friends and relatives because you can mostly rely on them to pay out any winnings. The “beards” try to look like degens (playing at 3am, bet non-stop and doing ridiculous parlays) before placing a winning bet.

▫️The most effective strategy for “sharps” is “whale-flipping”. Find a losing gambler, then ask to put a (likely) large winning bet amongst their pool of guaranteed losers.

▫️Once “sharps” max out the people they can use as “beards”, they tap professional networks called “movers”. These “movers” employ a bunch of “mules” who can put down bets on the behalf of the network. Low-end movers charge 10-20% while high-end movers charge 50% of winnings.

***

Lots other great details here: economist.com/christmas-spec…Image
On a related note, I wrote on how slot machines make $10B+ a year in Las Vegas (~70% of all casino gaming revenue).

The history, psychology and design of the device…which went from a throwaway game to the industry’s “cash cow” and “gambling’s crack cocaine.”readtrung.com/p/the-ludicrou…
x.com/trungtphan/sta… x.com/trungtphan/sta…
Read 4 tweets
Trung Phan Profile picture
Nov 19, 2025
Satya Nadella on why Microsoft Excel has been so durable after 40 years:

> the power of lists and tables
> the malleability of the software (“a blinking canvas”)
> spreadsheet software is Turing complete (“I can make it do everything”)
> it’s the world’s most approachable programming environment (“you get into it without even thinking your programming”)
fantastic pod ep: Image
throwback!
Read 4 tweets
Trung Phan Profile picture
Jul 28, 2025
The invention of bánh mì is a combination of climate, trade and urban layout of Saigon in late-19th century designed by French colonist.

When the French captured the area in 1859, most economic activity in the region took place along the Saigon river.

The population built makeshift homes tightly bundled by the river banks. Outgrowth from this eventually lead to narrow alleyways between many buildings that is trademark of the city (the Khmer named the region Prey Nokor then French renamed it Saigon and then it was renamed to Ho Chi Minh City in 1976 after end of Vietnam War).

Over decades, the French created European street grids and built wide Paris-type boulevards in the city to funnel commerce to larger markets (also make the city easier to administer).

It was at these markets that French baguettes were introduced and traded.

Bánh mì bread is known for being flaky and crispy on the outside while fluffier on inside (so god damn good).

Two features of Saigon helped create this texture:

▫️Climate: The heat and humidity in Southeast Asia leads dough to ferment faster, which creates air pockets in bread (light and fluffy).

▫️Ingredient: Wide availability of rice meant locals added rice flour to wheat flour imports (which were quite expensive). Rice flour is more resistant to moisture and creates a drier, crispier crust.

Fast forward to the 1930s: the French-designed street layout is largely complete. Now, the city centre has wide boulevards intersected by countless narrow alleyways.

The design was ideal for street vendor carts. These businesses were inspired by shophosue of colonial architecture to sell all types of goods as chaotic traffic rushed by.

Vietnam has some of the most slapping rice and soup dishes, but many people on the move in the mornings wanted something more portable and edible by hand.

Bánh mì was traditionally upper class fare but it met the need for on-the-go food.

Just fill the bread with some Vietnamese ingredients (braised pork, pickled vegetable, Vietnamese coriander, chilies) along with French goodies (pate).

Pair it with cà phê sữa đá (aka coffee with condensed milk aka caffeinated crack) and you’re laughing.Image
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Haven’t lived in Saigon for 10+ years but ate a banh mi every other day when I did.

While there, I also sold a comedy script to Fox (pitch: “The Fugitive meets Harold & Kumar set in Southeast Asia”).

It never got made but fun story to retell: readtrung.com/p/im-making-a-…
Classic episode Image
Read 4 tweets
Trung Phan Profile picture
Jul 26, 2025
the most underrated winner of the AI boom is the 15,000 person Caribbean island of Anguilla (which has a GDP of ~$320m) Image
The research team is happy to announce that we’ve played our part contributing to Anguilla’s windfall.

We also paid $99 to GoDaddy to see if we could secure one more .AI domain. Bearly.AIImage
Polynesian island Tuvalu has an even smaller population (10,000)!!
Read 4 tweets

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