Thread by @ICannot_Enough

Here is my latest Tesla forecast thread. The trend is up. 😎

I'm tweeting this sooner after the deliveries release than I normally would so that @heydave7 and I can talk about it when we record a podcast tonight, so please forgive any typos, formatting problems, etc. 🙏
/1 $TSLA

This chart shows Tesla's actual revenue for every quarter (except for Q4 2021, which is my forecast, since it won't be reported for another ~3 weeks).

That's exponential growth, y'all.
/2

Here are the deliveries I'm forecasting by site, by model, by quarter.

You can tell what site produces each model by color:
California = red
China = green
Texas = gray
Germany = blue
/3

While the previous chart showed all models (including unannounced and pre-production models), this one shows only the S3XY models, for all gigafactory sites combined.
/4

This chart shows only Tesla's top 2 selling vehicles.

For the next few years, Model 3 will continue its ramp only from California and China.

Model Y will be produced by all assembly sites, beginning this year, hopefully 🤞 becoming the world's top-selling vehicle.
/5

This chart shows the expense related to Elon's 2018 CEO Performance Award (stock compensation plan), by quarter.

$1.974B of the $2.283B max possible expense has already hit, so there won't be many more large quarterly expense hits.
/6

This chart shows the breakdown of Tesla's revenue by source, on an average dollar basis.

I expect regulatory credits (in orange) to become a smaller and smaller contributor as a percent of revenue over time.

Automotive revenue includes FSD sales, which I expect to grow.
/7

Similarly, this chart shows how Tesla spends its average dollar of revenue.

"Everything Else Excl. Stock Comp." includes taxes, which is why it decreases in Q4 2021 when I think Tesla will take a 1-time benefit from prior years' losses and then pay more taxes as profit grows.
/8

Here's a chart showing what I forecast for Non-GAAP Earnings per Delivery.

This is shown on a TTM basis, to exclude seasonality, so I expect a Q4-only number significantly higher than what's shown.

I boxed the quarters benefiting here from that 1-time tax benefit.
/9

This is the same chart except if you subtract the regulatory credits revenue from the earnings. That's not valid accounting, btw.

This Tesla 🐻 criticism has mostly fallen by the wayside since Tesla is consistently profitable with or without regulatory credits (as shown).
/10

Here's my forecast for quarterly Adjusted EBITDA.

This assumes (among other things) Tesla can supply the new factories with enough cells to all ramp successfully, no chip shortages, a few unannounced models, and enough progress on FSD to increase its price steadily.
/11

This chart shows an aspect of Tesla's business strategy that fundamentally differentiates them from competitors:
gross margins have improved significantly over the past 4 years *despite falling revenue per delivery*.

Folks, that ain't normal.
/12

I've been tweeting this forecast for 3+ years now. Yes, I've had to take the numbers down since way back then, but I got the shape & direction mostly right.

It's almost all actuals now.

If you try duplicating this page for any legacy brand, you will not see a similar trend.
/13

This page shows deliveries, Automotive revenue per delivery, and Automotive Revenue, all by model.
/14

Here's my Q4 Income Statement forecast shown next to the quarterly actuals going all the way back to Q1 2018.
/15

Here's some share count, COS %, Margin %, and delivery by site and model info.
/16

OK, here's the Income Statement I'm forecasting for the next 2 years.

The long and growing order backlog bodes well for Tesla's ability to take additional pricing and start ramping new models (as cell supply permits).
/17

Here's a bunch of metrics I use to forecast the CEO compensation plan expense, a breakdown of stock comp by type, non-GAAP Earnings and EPS:
Q4
$4.49 total includes
$1.43 of 1-time tax benefit
$3.06 excluding 1-time items

... and other metrics that may be of interest to you.
/18

This page shows metrics related to P/E, PEG, a reconciliation of GAAP Net Income to Adj. EBITDA (Non-GAAP), regulatory credits as a % of automotive revenue, automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits, and total production, inventory, and deliveries.
/19

And finally we have deliveries by site and model, by quarter, through 2023.

You made it to the end of the 4 20 thread. Thank you for reading and a very Happy New Year to each of you! 🥂🎉🥳
/20

Well, I wasn’t *not* going to take a screenshot of it. 🤣