Here is my latest Tesla forecast thread. The trend is up. 😎
I'm tweeting this sooner after the deliveries release than I normally would so that @heydave7 and I can talk about it when we record a podcast tonight, so please forgive any typos, formatting problems, etc. 🙏
/1 $TSLA
This chart shows Tesla's actual revenue for every quarter (except for Q4 2021, which is my forecast, since it won't be reported for another ~3 weeks).
That's exponential growth, y'all.
/2
Here are the deliveries I'm forecasting by site, by model, by quarter.
You can tell what site produces each model by color:
California = red
China = green
Texas = gray
Germany = blue
/3
While the previous chart showed all models (including unannounced and pre-production models), this one shows only the S3XY models, for all gigafactory sites combined.
/4
This chart shows only Tesla's top 2 selling vehicles.
For the next few years, Model 3 will continue its ramp only from California and China.
Model Y will be produced by all assembly sites, beginning this year, hopefully 🤞 becoming the world's top-selling vehicle.
/5
This chart shows the expense related to Elon's 2018 CEO Performance Award (stock compensation plan), by quarter.
$1.974B of the $2.283B max possible expense has already hit, so there won't be many more large quarterly expense hits.
/6
This chart shows the breakdown of Tesla's revenue by source, on an average dollar basis.
I expect regulatory credits (in orange) to become a smaller and smaller contributor as a percent of revenue over time.
Automotive revenue includes FSD sales, which I expect to grow.
/7
Similarly, this chart shows how Tesla spends its average dollar of revenue.
"Everything Else Excl. Stock Comp." includes taxes, which is why it decreases in Q4 2021 when I think Tesla will take a 1-time benefit from prior years' losses and then pay more taxes as profit grows.
/8
Here's a chart showing what I forecast for Non-GAAP Earnings per Delivery.
This is shown on a TTM basis, to exclude seasonality, so I expect a Q4-only number significantly higher than what's shown.
I boxed the quarters benefiting here from that 1-time tax benefit.
/9
This is the same chart except if you subtract the regulatory credits revenue from the earnings. That's not valid accounting, btw.
This Tesla 🐻 criticism has mostly fallen by the wayside since Tesla is consistently profitable with or without regulatory credits (as shown).
/10
Here's my forecast for quarterly Adjusted EBITDA.
This assumes (among other things) Tesla can supply the new factories with enough cells to all ramp successfully, no chip shortages, a few unannounced models, and enough progress on FSD to increase its price steadily.
/11
This chart shows an aspect of Tesla's business strategy that fundamentally differentiates them from competitors:
gross margins have improved significantly over the past 4 years *despite falling revenue per delivery*.
Folks, that ain't normal.
/12
I've been tweeting this forecast for 3+ years now. Yes, I've had to take the numbers down since way back then, but I got the shape & direction mostly right.
It's almost all actuals now.
If you try duplicating this page for any legacy brand, you will not see a similar trend.
/13
This page shows deliveries, Automotive revenue per delivery, and Automotive Revenue, all by model.
/14
Here's my Q4 Income Statement forecast shown next to the quarterly actuals going all the way back to Q1 2018.
/15
Here's some share count, COS %, Margin %, and delivery by site and model info.
/16
OK, here's the Income Statement I'm forecasting for the next 2 years.
The long and growing order backlog bodes well for Tesla's ability to take additional pricing and start ramping new models (as cell supply permits).
/17
Here's a bunch of metrics I use to forecast the CEO compensation plan expense, a breakdown of stock comp by type, non-GAAP Earnings and EPS:
Q4
$4.49 total includes
$1.43 of 1-time tax benefit
$3.06 excluding 1-time items
... and other metrics that may be of interest to you.
/18
This page shows metrics related to P/E, PEG, a reconciliation of GAAP Net Income to Adj. EBITDA (Non-GAAP), regulatory credits as a % of automotive revenue, automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits, and total production, inventory, and deliveries.
/19
And finally we have deliveries by site and model, by quarter, through 2023.
You made it to the end of the 4 20 thread. Thank you for reading and a very Happy New Year to each of you! 🥂🎉🥳
/20
Well, I wasn’t *not* going to take a screenshot of it. 🤣
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Hello, friends. I have updated my Tesla charts and quarterly earnings forecast through 2025 and will post videos publicly over the next 2 weeks (subscribe if you want early access).
Let's see some pretty charts for the first 34 slides.
1/69 $TSLA
Tesla may yet break all previous production & delivery records in 2024, as they've done for many years now. ... and I expect they'll do it again in 2025, 2026, 2027...
🚀 The S3XY growth story is really just getting started...
2/69
Tesla makes the two best-selling luxury vehicles in the world: Model 3 and Model Y.
Model 3 sales are still growing, but not by as much as Model Y, which continues ramping production up at both of Tesla's newest factories (Austin and Berlin).
3/69
Hello, friends. I have updated my Tesla charts and quarterly earnings forecast through 2025 and will make some videos tomorrow and post them publicly over the next 10 days (subscribe if you want early access).
Let's see some pretty charts for the first 30 slides.
1/69 $TSLA
Tesla will break all previous production & delivery records in 2024, by a wide margin, as they've done for many years now.
... and then they'll do it again in 2025, and 2026, and 2027... 🚀
The growth story is really just getting started...
2/69
Tesla makes the two best-selling luxury vehicles in the world: Model 3 and Model Y.
Model 3 sales are still growing, but not by as much as Model Y, which continues ramping production up at both of Tesla's newest factories (Austin and Berlin).
Hello, friends. I have updated my Tesla charts and quarterly forecast through 2025 and will make a bunch of videos about what's changed (subscribe for early access).
Q3 may not break many records, because factory upgrades limited production, but Q4 probably will. 📈
1/69 $TSLA
Tesla will break all previous production & delivery records in 2023, by a wide margin, as they've done for many years now.
... and then they'll do it again next year, and the year after that, and the year after that... 🚀
The growth story is really just getting started...
2/69
Tesla makes the two best-selling luxury vehicles in the world: Model 3 and Model Y.
Model 3 sales are still growing, but not by as much as Model Y, which continues ramping production up at both of Tesla's newest factories (Austin and Berlin).
Now that Ford, GM, and Tesla have all reported their first half of 2023 earnings results, I have updated my charts comparing the trailing 12 months' actuals against each other and the prior 7 years.
Despite selling less than half as many vehicles:
🧵 $F $GM $TSLA
... and collecting barely more than half as much revenue:
... Tesla is earning more profit: 🤓
(GAAP Net Income)
I have updated my earnings forecast model and charts with the record production & deliveries already reported for Q2.
Here's a chart showing the deliveries by model and production location in my forecast model:
Tesla doesn't report actual deliveries by model and production… https://t.co/knGxjzdKjMtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
If you're used to seeing my forecast threads, this one's going to flow a bit differently.
I decided to lead off with the same 4 familiar delivery charts, but next I'm skipping straight to my EPS estimate and income statement forecast table, for those only interested in the… https://t.co/RyM8apPQu4twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Here's a chart of the Adjusted EBITDA I'm forecasting for Tesla alongside the history of this profit metric going back to 2018.
I don't have any robotaxi fare or autonomous robot revenue in my forecast, but I do assume that FSD Beta performance will gradually but steadily… https://t.co/0LqPuzeuODtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
I will record a series of videos tomorrow discussing these charts and my detailed forecast model, making 1 video Public per day at youtube.com/jrs97t (my subscribers will have early access).
The growth story continues. 📈
1/69
Earlier today, a notorious short seller claimed Tesla will never sell more than 400,000 vehicles in a quarter again... 🤣
Meanwhile, Tesla continues expanding global production of its S3XY lineup, and record deliveries will follow in 2023 and into the future.
2/69
Tesla makes the two best-selling luxury vehicles in the world: Model 3 and Model Y. Model 3 sales are still growing, but not by as much as Model Y, which continues ramping production up at both of Tesla's newest factories (Austin and Berlin).