Bank analyst complaining about the dotcom bubble in March 2000.

"The run-up in technology stocks... has been such a sizable distraction on our ability to provide guidance on bank stocks, that I felt compelled to make some sort of commentary on the complete and total insanity"
"I don't think bank stocks can make a meaningful recovery until tech stocks have corrected

Until the performance dissipates, money will continue to chase it in the tech sector"
"The investing public has taken on the role of amateur VCs - funding excessively risky ventures years from profitability at prices hundreds of times higher than professional VCs"

"Most of today's investors have never experienced a sharp, protracted downturn in equity values"
"The internet will change the way we live, but it is unlikely that investors will realize high investment returns from holding these stocks over the long term"

"Many shall be restored that are fallen ... But, I'm not holding my breath."
mch-inc.com/pdf/and%20the%…

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More from @NeckarValue

3 Jan
I get excited by the liminal space between the years. Anything seems possible with the blank canvas of 12 fresh months.

But it's a conundrum: I know from experience that long lists of goals don't work. They're quickly forgotten.

Instead, I combined several frameworks this year:
First I thought I'd get fancy. Forget goals and resolutions. We want Objectives and Key Results (aka OKRs). If it's good enough for Google...

This is John Doerr’s formula: “I will (Objective) as measured by (this set of Key Results).” ImageImageImage
You don’t have to reinvent the wheel here. Check out this template by @patriciamou_

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d… Image
Read 13 tweets
2 Jan
Always enjoy @danwwang's annual letter

"It’s too soon to say that regulatory actions have snuffed out entrepreneurial dynamism in China, it’s easier to see that a decade of tightening has strangled cultural production. I expect China will grow rich but remain culturally stunted"
"An important factor in China’s reform program includes not only a willingness to reshape the strategic landscape but also a discernment of which foreign trends to resist."
"leadership is targeting a high level of manufacturing output, rejecting the notion of comparative advantage. That model ... has leaked out of the lecture hall and morphed into a political justification for only watching as American communities of engineering practice dissolved."
Read 11 tweets
30 Dec 21
This is Henry Ellenbogen who managed the massive T. Rowe Price New Horizons Fund.

E. picked growth and compounder stocks, expanded into venture, beat the market, then left to found Durable Capital.

Here's what I learned from his letters about his playbook for "durable growth":
"Investing in small-cap growth stocks is an immensely creative process, where creativity and success are defined by the ability to see what others—most market participants—don’t see."
Ellenbogen moved fast: at 19 years a brief stint as Chief of Staff to Rep. Peter Deutsch (he was called "boy wonder of Capitol Hill"). Harvard JD/MBA, then joined T Rowe in 2001 to cover media and internet.

PM of Media and Telecom Fund 2004-09. New Horizons fund 2010-19.
Read 25 tweets
29 Dec 21
2021 left me grateful, excited, and terrified.

-Grateful because I got to write.

-Excited because I'm making money with it.

-Terrified because who knows if it's going to work out (tbd).

I sent my first email in August 2020 and as of today I have 6,689 free subscribers.🙏
... as well as 392 paid subscribers for annualized revenue of ~$45,000.

I hate that this creates mixed feelings. But it does.

I'm grateful for every single subscriber. But it's not sustainable. Yet.

And, compared to many others, it's small.🤏
“Envy is a really stupid sin because it’s the only one you could never possibly have any fun at. There’s a lot of pain and no fun. Why would you want to get on that trolley?” Charlie Munger

"Comparison is the thief of joy.” Theodore Roosevelt
Read 18 tweets
28 Dec 21
Averaging up in winners.

"...the neglected but critical follow-on investment decisions.

When one of our companies starts to become a compounding machine, we may commit a lot more money as well as time to let the compounding make a difference.
altos.vc/blog/howdoyouk…
We have committed 5 to 10x, and, in a couple of cases, more than 100x our initial investment (rather than 0.6x)."
"For follow-on investments, there will be more business metrics and operating history to analyze. However, paradoxically, we’ve learned that the people and our relationship with them may end up being the most important factor, even at the later stages."
Read 4 tweets
28 Dec 21
"How to Be Happy"

"Factors that don't correlate much... age, gender, parenthood, intelligence, attractiveness, money (above the poverty line)

Factors that correlate strongly include: genetics, love and relationship satisfaction, work satisfaction"
lesswrong.com/posts/ZbgCx2nt…
"Extroversion is among the best predictors of happiness, as are conscientiousness, agreeableness, self-esteem, and optimism."

Happiness is subjective and relative. Happiness is not determined by objective factors, but by how you feel about them
"Flow and mindfulness

being "lost in the moment" may provide some of your happiest moments ... when you're not in flow, taking a step outside the moment and practicing "mindfulness" - that is, paying attention - can reduce chronic pain and depression, reduce stress and anxiety"
Read 5 tweets

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