Thread by @olgatokariuk

'Every year, Ukraine becomes more confident, more united, more European. [It] inches a little bit closer to democracy and prosperity. What if it gets there? The idea of a flourishing Ukraine right on Russia’s doorstep is, for Putin, personally intolerable'
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

'One Russian analyst, Vladimir Frolov, notes that the costs of an invasion are steadily rising—because of Ukrainian economic growth, national consolidation, and military investment—and suggests that the price could rise more in the future, which is why Moscow should act now'

'even the most fanatical Russian military planner must realize that once an invasion begins, events will spin out of control: “You don’t know how many people you are going to lose [...]. And you will certainly have trouble keeping control of anything you have invaded.”

'Ukrainians, in government and in the opposition, have no difficulty understanding that their conflict with Russia will involve violence, because it already does. Americans and Europeans, meanwhile, desperately want a solution involving nothing more than diplomacy and sanctions'

'Seen from Kyiv, the Western attitude toward Russia also looks incredibly naive. Since the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008, Americans and Europeans have constantly been surprised by Russia, by Russian aggression, by Russian territorial ambitions, by Russian interference'

'Help make Ukraine the successful, prosperous, Western-facing democracy that Putin so clearly fears. Don’t make decisions about Ukraine without Ukraine.'
A really great report from Kyiv by @anneapplebaum, perfectly capturing the mood in Ukraine
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…