Thread by @TheBitcoinSpot

#Bitcoin Price Prediction for 2022 👀

Just follow the simple math —

A few weeks ago, the galaxy brains at @McKinsey calculated global wealth at $1,540 trillion, or $1.54 quadrillion.

mckinsey.com/industries/fin…

THREAD ⤵️

Financial advisors are rapidly allocating client assets to Bitcoin.

The *first sentence* of the last annual survey (March 2021) of the Journal of Financial Planning of the @fpassociation was...

[2/18] ⤵️

"While advisers remain cautious on digital assets, or cryptocurrencies, it seems that they may be shifting to embracing them due to client demand..."

financialplanningassociation.org/sites/default/…

Regarding financial advisors recommending allocations to digital assets, the survey found:

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1% of advisors were recommending in 2020
14% were last March
26% expected to be by March 2022

Only 4% said they don't discuss the topic with their clients

17% of their clients asked about allocations in 2020
49% were asking in March 2021

That is hyperbolic growth.

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That is enough to force skeptical advisors to join in, to avoid losing clients due to outperformance by their peers.

What percentage allocation are they recommending?

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Ric Edelman @ricedelman, thought leader among financial advisors, predicted that the standard allocation to digital assets in 2022 will be 3–5%.

401kspecialistmag.com/ric-edelmans-2…

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3–5% of $1.54 quadrillion in global wealth is $36–77 trillion.

(BTW, the corporate treasures Michael @saylor has you focused on? They're only $4 trillion, which is 0.26% of global wealth or 0.39% of financial assets, which is...nothing.)

treasury-management.com/news/corporate…

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Meanwhile, in December @NYDIG_BTC announced they had raised $1 billion to help move institutions and their clients into Bitcoin.

wsj.com/articles/bitco…

That tells you NYDIG expects to bring hundreds of billions of dollars into Bitcoin, possibly trillions.

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This past spring, @BankofAmerica calculated that it takes only $93 million flowing into Bitcoin to increase its price by 1%.

financialpost.com/pmn/business-p…

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At the time, Bitcoin's market cap was ~$1 trillion. 1% of that is $10 billion.

Divide that by $93 million and you get a multiplier effect of 107.5x, driven by Bitcoin's low float, inflexible supply and unwilling sellers (that's you, hodlers).

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Using the low end of $36–77 trillion (from @ricedelman's 3–5%) and applying the 107.5x multiplier to $36 trillion brings us to $3.87 quadrillion.

That is more than double the amount of global wealth.

In other words, more than enough to trigger hyperbitcoinization.

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Would the 107.5x multiplier hold at that scale?

It seems to me (I'm @_log_scale_) that the multiplier would only *increase* as the world swarms to acquire something would be increasingly scarce and the most precious asset on earth.

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Dividing the $1.54 quadrillion of global wealth by 21 million BTC yields a value of $73 million per 1 BTC.

(There would be no dollars to price Bitcoin in after hyperbitcoinization, so consider it purchasing power in today's dollars.)

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Subtracting the 2.08 million BTC that have yet to be mined per TimechainStats.com, and 1.78 million BTC that have never left their miner address and are mostly lost forever per @glassnode, there's a circulating supply of 17.1 million BTC.

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https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/1339989964298268673

Dividing $1.54 quadrillion in global wealth by a circulating supply of 17.1 million BTC yields a value of $90 million per BTC.

Most estimates of lost BTC are much higher, 3+ million BTC. If you go with that, the value of 1 BTC would be well over $100 million.

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This "prediction" is in line with the #Stock2FOMO model of @w_s_bitcoin, only greatly accelerated.

https://twitter.com/w_s_bitcoin/status/1464250485582479376?s=20

[16/18]

This is not a serious price prediction — mostly because governments would shut on-ramps to Bitcoin to slow the process and to prevent mass chaos.

Governments — all of them — would be forced to race to buy Bitcoin for their national treasuries, too.

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Where am I wrong?

Tell me in the Twitter Space I'm about to start:

[18/18]

twitter.com/i/spaces/1MnGn…