Ziad 😷 Fazel 🇨🇦🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jan 3, 2022 31 tweets 29 min read Read on X
Over the weekend, smart & caring people like this ⤵️ have been raising alarms about #COVID19AB virus measurable in Alberta wastewater.

So I'm here to explain:
• where to find the results for your city or town
• how to interact with the graph
• how to interpret the results
First, let me take you exactly to where to find these results:
• for now, it is the only graph on the "Wastewater" tab
• hosted at @ucalgaryCHI, the results are province-wide including years of innovative work by @UAlberta, @UCalgary, @ACWAWater et al

covid-tracker.chi-csm.ca
Now, although the CMOH said on 7 Dec 2021 it was just about here, after that I could find no information from CMOH, AB Health, or GoA about where to find the website, or how to use it.

It is as if the Gov had been suppressing this information for so long, it sorta squeezed out.
And it fell on @UofC_Science and @BabychStephanie at @calgaryherald to provide an explanation and a link to the site then.

Last week, @sarahoffin at @GlobalCalgary also explained how important wastewater sampling is.

Because AB Health is cutting back even further on PCR swab testing, we need other ways to see how fast #COVID19AB is spreading.

Spoiler Alert: WAY TOO FAST!

globalnews.ca/news/8479988/w…
In May when I built my #BalancedScorecard, I included @ucalgaryCHI wastewater sampling:
• it remains independent of government reporting
• not completely reliant on GoA funding
• everyone poops; not everyone gets swabbed
• wastewater sampling was a few days ahead of PCR
During Aug long weekend, I focussed on independent, daily R from @imgrund + wastewater sampling from @ucalgaryCHI, because:
• GoA's 28 July 2021 decimation of Test/Trace/Isolate would understate cases
• GoA was suppressing Alberta-wide results eg. UofA

In September, when we finally saw disinformation to cabinet in June to launch 4th wave:
• more empty promises about making wastewater results available
• which took until Dec to shart publicly
• did we ever see any local response, rather than top-down?

alberta.ca/assets/documen…
With above screenshot, I may have subtweeted @jvipondmd @PopAlberta @GosiaGasperoPhD with CMOH's notorious "SHIFTING FROM PANDEMIC TO ENDEMIC" document that:
• over-relied on highly-vaxed UK to predict AB Hospital
• cherry-picked worst to become worst

alberta.ca/assets/documen…
But I digress. Now that we have Alberta-wide wastewater sampling results:
• in a vacuum of information from PCR testing suppressed
• and rapid-testing results unavailable
• let's use it while we got it.

Lemme show you how...

covid-tracker.chi-csm.ca
1. Click on the name of your town or city on the map of Alberta on the right.

This will give you the graph for eg. Edmonton, which has been in just as much trouble as Calgary, and for which there are results since June 2020.

Why didn't we see that before, you may ask? Me too.
2. "Comparing sites is also problematic because different communities have different proportions of residential and industrial water use contributing to their municipal wastewater. The most important signals to compare are within a given community by following trends over time."
That's what most of us are looking for anyway:
• how is my town or city doing?
• how is the town or city of my loved ones, or my workplace, doing?
• oh ya, I remember we had it pretty bad around here before - you can see that confirmed in the wastewater sampling too, eh
"What the heck is this?" you may ask.
• Starting Date - eg. you can look since 1 July, for launch of the 4th Wave, or from 25 Nov, for neglect of the Omicron Wave
• Raw v Normalized - See Dr Parker explanation ⤵️
• I'll try to be your PhD whisperer

3. Raw v Normalized?

Raw = count of virus independent of whether lots of rainwater got into sewer, or industrial/residential mix

Normalized = uses fecal microbiota marker like Pepper Mild Mottle Virus* to focus on human poop in the wastewater.

* resists making jalapeño joke
4. N1, N2 or Average?

N1, N2, etc. are target sites on the virus that the wastewater sampling lab looks for.

If you want to know way more than me on this, read:

facetsjournal.com/doi/10.1139/fa…

@COVIDPoops19 is an awesome account to follow.

@threadreaderapp unroll

Thank you!
💩💩
Heavy media coverage yesterday about Alberta's wastewater sampling project, because:

Co-lead Dr Hubert: "There might be fewer people getting PCR tests, but what we do is a PCR test for the entire community."

@drdagly: ⤵️

AB Health: MonitoringClosely™

edmonton.ctvnews.ca/alberta-doctor…
Funding for the UofC and UofA projects has evolved, but AB Health is now funding the joint province-wide project with $3.4m (of Albertans' money).

As I explained throughout this thread, it is crucial these results remain publicly visible in realtime.

calgaryherald.com/news/wastewate…
True picture (therefore control) of #COVID19AB has been suppressed by 28 July 2021 Public Health Order that decimated Test/Trace/Isolate during 4th Wave.

Therefore we have to look at other signals like Wastewater Sampling, independent Daily R, and help from @bcCOVID19group...
@mentions@bcCOVID19group Dr Karlen had to switch from Cases to Hospital Admissions, and then analyze the lower testing volumes and higher test %, to explain Alberta's Urban/Rural Delta Wave.

pypm.github.io/home/docs/stud…

Impressive work from an experienced modeller to adapt to gaps in Alberta's information.
@mentions@bcCOVID19group @GosiaGasperoPhD @jvipondmd @PopAlberta @LeylaDAsadi @drdagly @noelgibney @RajBhardwajMD @dupuisj @demandsbetter @politicalham It will be interesting to see how Dr Karlan adapts to even more severe cuts in Testing, Tracing, Isolation, and the switch to unrecorded Rapid Testing, for Omicron now.

[Extremely unsubtle hint to read these].

pypm.github.io/home/docs/stud…

More on his work in a separate thread tbd.
@mentions@bcCOVID19group @GosiaGasperoPhD @jvipondmd @PopAlberta @LeylaDAsadi @drdagly @noelgibney @RajBhardwajMD @dupuisj @demandsbetter @politicalham We're fortunate that:
• despite Xmas reporting gaps
• 2-3 week lag of Albertans hitting hospitals from exponentially growing, unmeasured cases through Dec
• that Alberta-wide wastewater sampling became public
• so we can break down these graphs
Let's look at each one individually. Here:
• Virus measures N1 & N2 compared to new PCR swab test cases, and to test positivity
• As Dr Parkins explains (not Parker as I misstated above), wastewater virus sampling predicts both PCR swab test cases & positivity by about 6 days
Here, we see just how good the correlation between wastewater sampling results, and the 5-day moving average of daily new cases from swab tests.

Just as Dr Karlen at UVic infers underreported Cases from Hospital Admissions, we'll be able to infer them from Wastewater Sampling.
We see that here:
• Waves 2 & 3, qty of actual cases predicted 6 days earlier from wastewater sampling model was close.
• actual cases dropped off as swab testing capacity saturated ~ 20K tests/day
• in Wave 4, actual cases were below model, similar to what Dr Karlen saw.
Since we're here, let's look at Dr Karlen's 29 Dec model.

pypm.github.io/home/docs/stud…

He predicts severe outcomes at:
D: Hospital probability 10% of previous, Death 1%, Hospital Duration 10%
E: 30%, 9%, 30%
F: Same as previous

6-mo view ↙️ 2-mo view ↘️

pypm.github.io/home/docs/stud…
What's even scarier, is that Dr Karlen modelled these outcomes on 29 Dec, before AB Health had updated Hospital Admissions since 22 Dec (3.5/day/million people).

His next update will have the latest (currently 9.1).

2.6x higher, and climbing Omicron-fast.
I wish there were a simple formula like:

Cases = a x Wastewater + b

But we have to work more from trends than data points.

Dr Karlen has explained that pandemics have trends with the same slope for a while, than a switch to a new one. @GosiaGasperoPhD shows this too.
@mentions@GosiaGasperoPhD In the fall, I attempted to correlate @imgrund R with @ucalgaryCHI Wastewater project, who are inferring Cases from wastewater.

A different approach than @bcCOVID19group use of Hospital Admissions.

Or @KanjiJamil retrospective use of serosurveys.

Hoping there are connections.
@mentions@GosiaGasperoPhD @imgrund @ucalgaryCHI @bcCOVID19group @KanjiJamil For those of you new to Dr Karlen's work, there is this 54-min video, accessible to someone comfortable with first-year university-level math & science.



and this scientific paper, which is somewhat deeper.

pypm.github.io/home/docs/stud…
@mentions@GosiaGasperoPhD @imgrund @ucalgaryCHI @bcCOVID19group @KanjiJamil In retrospect, I won't be doing a separate thread on Dr Karlen's work.

I know I lost some of you moving from wastewater into his modelling, but may have picked up some ID docs, epidemiologists, engineers, etc along the way who are able to see the connections better than me.

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More from @ZiadFazel

Mar 14
🧵Respected Alberta political scientist @DuaneBratt posted in the friendlier place this same-day review of Health Min LaGrange's Statement of Defence in wrongful termination lawsuit from fired AHS CEO Athana Mentzelopoulos.

I have some thoughts too...

skyview.social/?url=https%3A%…
@DuaneBratt AB Justice Minister posted a link to the Statement of Defence from the Dropbox of a Heather Jenkins, who appears to be the Ministry's Press Secretary.

alberta.ca/news-spokesper…

x.com/mickeyamery/st… Screenshot of Min Amery's link showing the Statement of Defence on Heather Jenkins' Dropbox.
Screenshot from GoA "Media Inquiries" page showing role of Ms Jenkins.
@DuaneBratt GoA is again using external counsel rather than (excellent) in-house lawyers, just as they did in CM v Alberta in 2022, when LaGrange was Minister of Education.

Taxpayers paid for their representation + Justice Dunlop's penalty to pay Plaintiff's Costs.

canlii.org/en/ab/abkb/doc…Style of Cause for CM v Alberta Ruling on costs, from CanLII link in my tweet.
Scathing conclusion from Justice Dunlop's ruling, same link.
Read 24 tweets
Mar 13
🧵

The Honourable Raymond E. Wyant, former Chief Judge of the Provincial Court of Manitoba, certainly has a sparkling resumé and history of service.

However, there may be a problem with him providing these legal services to the Government of Alberta.

alberta.ca/release.cfm?xI…
That problem: no evidence that Judge Wyant is entitled to practice law in Alberta.

Search result from Law Society of Alberta directory, which lists lawyers of different practising statuses:
• lots of Raymond___
• no ___Wyant

/c @KathleenGanley

documents.lawsociety.ab.ca/wp-content/upl…no result for Wyant last name
Lots of Ray and Raymond, but none with last name Wyant
I've tagged my MLA Kathleen Ganley on this, as she is a lawyer and former Justice Minister. I am neither, so I would appreciate her review of this, with advisors at @albertaNDP as required.

It is baffling to me, but as a layperson I looked deeper...
Read 8 tweets
Mar 10
Hey Bath Fitter!

You're apparently renovating the bathroom above my friend's high-rise condo suite in NW Calgary, and here's what you (?) have done to her ceiling. Your "installer" apparently ran down to say he would "clean it up".

She called condo mgr.

bathfitteralberta.caPhoto of hole in ceiling - IIRC this WAS the access panel from suite below to tub in suite above.
Rain shower head in lower suite covered in junk
Way more debris in the floor drain of my friend's shower
Access panel from ceiling fallen into my friend's shower, likely because Bath Fitter or whoever did not come to "access" the bathtub below through it first.
My friend is worried about her safety. We recently had to get restraining order against a man who nearly sexually assaulted her there on 16 Dec 24.

💩 condo manager GAVE THE PREDATOR her suite number and allowed him up to her floor, without checking ID or calling her.

@CBCMeg
@CBCMeg So this banging on her bathroom ceiling and shower floor today..

..is reminding her of the man banging on her door on Mon 16 Dec 2024..

..is flashing back to an abusive marriage where my friend hid/barricaded in the bathroom from a husband banging on the bathroom door.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 9
Sunday Brunch Buffet at @HyattCalgary with my sister for her birthday tomorrow. All this chef-prepared food, on heavy plates and silverware, and graceful perfect service for $45.

Don’t tell her I could probably afford this more than once/year.

thomsonskitchenbar.ca/promotions
And yes, my video work is extremely sub-par. @rodmaldaner would give it an F if he were teaching me in a class. 😏

But:
• I’m hungry. Come film and eat your own.
• I promised the staff no faces - chefs, customers, staff. Just food.
@rodmaldaner Before the pandemic, @HyattCalgary used to have a weekday breakfast buffet. Best value in town.

First course would be sliced melon, with more of my weight in smoked salmon than a sea lion would eat, by proportion or absolute. My plate today of buttery, fork-tender smoked salmon with assorted melon, capers and berries.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 9
🧵I remember when AHS was an arms-length agency that delivered health care, and left the politicking to Health Minister, currently @AdrianaLaGrange.

Now, "refocused" AHS is schlepping Premier @ABDanielleSmith self-serving idea to dump $80m MHCare/Atabay boondoggle on Ukraine. Screenshot of tweet 1/7 below.
@AdrianaLaGrange @ABDanielleSmith @JMeddings @alanna_smithh @TheBreakdownAB @JenLeeCBC @PfParks @LukaszukAB @reportrix @CheSkulskiCTV @ByMatthewBlack @DuaneBratt We know 120 mg/5 mL is European concentration, and 160 mg/5 mL is N American.

Yet you paid MHCare Medical $70m for 5m bottles (10-14x Canada's annual demand) of European concentration, when Atabay would have happily mixed the Canadian concentration in this custom order for us. Image
@AdrianaLaGrange @ABDanielleSmith @JMeddings @alanna_smithh @TheBreakdownAB @JenLeeCBC @PfParks @LukaszukAB @reportrix @CheSkulskiCTV @ByMatthewBlack @DuaneBratt This "risk was identified" AFTER this thick suspension clogged the tiny diameter gastric feeding tubes of infants in Neonatal ICU, not "children under two years of age".

Evasive minimizers!

And you still defended this off-label use afterwards.

albertahealthservices.ca/news/Page17971… Tweet 3 of 7
Read 9 tweets
Mar 7
I have friends in Ukraine, including one in the Armed Forces. I did not speak with him this morning (would never reveal when I did) but I spoke to other friends about this proposed unsellable, expiring inventory dump disguised as an "aid shipment."

Like me, they were disgusted.
🧵 to come later, after my Ukrainian friends and I have done some more research. Likely on the weekend.

#MHCareMedical #Atabay #ChildrensAcetaminophen #Boondoggle

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1851465…Photo of glass bottle of children's acetaminophen, manufactured by Atabay of Turkey, but customized for Canada and imported by MHCare Medical, as part of an $80m boondoggle.
I dream of the day I can join my friends for Shashlik in Kyiv in a free and peaceful Ukraine.

If I forgot to restrict replies to people I follow only, I guess I will got trolled for that.

Hide Reply + Block will be my 🇨🇦 weapons instead of a 🇺🇦 rifle.

@threadreaderapp unroll
Read 4 tweets

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