First, let me take you exactly to where to find these results:
• for now, it is the only graph on the "Wastewater" tab
• hosted at @ucalgaryCHI, the results are province-wide including years of innovative work by @UAlberta, @UCalgary, @ACWAWater et al
Now, although the CMOH said on 7 Dec 2021 it was just about here, after that I could find no information from CMOH, AB Health, or GoA about where to find the website, or how to use it.
It is as if the Gov had been suppressing this information for so long, it sorta squeezed out.
In May when I built my #BalancedScorecard, I included @ucalgaryCHI wastewater sampling:
• it remains independent of government reporting
• not completely reliant on GoA funding
• everyone poops; not everyone gets swabbed
• wastewater sampling was a few days ahead of PCR
During Aug long weekend, I focussed on independent, daily R from @imgrund + wastewater sampling from @ucalgaryCHI, because:
• GoA's 28 July 2021 decimation of Test/Trace/Isolate would understate cases
• GoA was suppressing Alberta-wide results eg. UofA
In September, when we finally saw disinformation to cabinet in June to launch 4th wave:
• more empty promises about making wastewater results available
• which took until Dec to shart publicly
• did we ever see any local response, rather than top-down?
With above screenshot, I may have subtweeted @jvipondmd@PopAlberta@GosiaGasperoPhD with CMOH's notorious "SHIFTING FROM PANDEMIC TO ENDEMIC" document that:
• over-relied on highly-vaxed UK to predict AB Hospital
• cherry-picked worst to become worst
But I digress. Now that we have Alberta-wide wastewater sampling results:
• in a vacuum of information from PCR testing suppressed
• and rapid-testing results unavailable
• let's use it while we got it.
1. Click on the name of your town or city on the map of Alberta on the right.
This will give you the graph for eg. Edmonton, which has been in just as much trouble as Calgary, and for which there are results since June 2020.
Why didn't we see that before, you may ask? Me too.
2. "Comparing sites is also problematic because different communities have different proportions of residential and industrial water use contributing to their municipal wastewater. The most important signals to compare are within a given community by following trends over time."
That's what most of us are looking for anyway:
• how is my town or city doing?
• how is the town or city of my loved ones, or my workplace, doing?
• oh ya, I remember we had it pretty bad around here before - you can see that confirmed in the wastewater sampling too, eh
"What the heck is this?" you may ask.
• Starting Date - eg. you can look since 1 July, for launch of the 4th Wave, or from 25 Nov, for neglect of the Omicron Wave
• Raw v Normalized - See Dr Parker explanation ⤵️
• I'll try to be your PhD whisperer
3. Raw v Normalized?
Raw = count of virus independent of whether lots of rainwater got into sewer, or industrial/residential mix
Normalized = uses fecal microbiota marker like Pepper Mild Mottle Virus* to focus on human poop in the wastewater.
* resists making jalapeño joke
4. N1, N2 or Average?
N1, N2, etc. are target sites on the virus that the wastewater sampling lab looks for.
If you want to know way more than me on this, read:
True picture (therefore control) of #COVID19AB has been suppressed by 28 July 2021 Public Health Order that decimated Test/Trace/Isolate during 4th Wave.
Therefore we have to look at other signals like Wastewater Sampling, independent Daily R, and help from @bcCOVID19group...
@mentions@bcCOVID19group Dr Karlen had to switch from Cases to Hospital Admissions, and then analyze the lower testing volumes and higher test %, to explain Alberta's Urban/Rural Delta Wave.
Let's look at each one individually. Here:
• Virus measures N1 & N2 compared to new PCR swab test cases, and to test positivity
• As Dr Parkins explains (not Parker as I misstated above), wastewater virus sampling predicts both PCR swab test cases & positivity by about 6 days
Here, we see just how good the correlation between wastewater sampling results, and the 5-day moving average of daily new cases from swab tests.
Just as Dr Karlen at UVic infers underreported Cases from Hospital Admissions, we'll be able to infer them from Wastewater Sampling.
We see that here:
• Waves 2 & 3, qty of actual cases predicted 6 days earlier from wastewater sampling model was close.
• actual cases dropped off as swab testing capacity saturated ~ 20K tests/day
• in Wave 4, actual cases were below model, similar to what Dr Karlen saw.
Since we're here, let's look at Dr Karlen's 29 Dec model.
What's even scarier, is that Dr Karlen modelled these outcomes on 29 Dec, before AB Health had updated Hospital Admissions since 22 Dec (3.5/day/million people).
His next update will have the latest (currently 9.1).
2.6x higher, and climbing Omicron-fast.
I wish there were a simple formula like:
Cases = a x Wastewater + b
But we have to work more from trends than data points.
Dr Karlen has explained that pandemics have trends with the same slope for a while, than a switch to a new one. @GosiaGasperoPhD shows this too.
I know I lost some of you moving from wastewater into his modelling, but may have picked up some ID docs, epidemiologists, engineers, etc along the way who are able to see the connections better than me.
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🧵Respected Alberta political scientist @DuaneBratt posted in the friendlier place this same-day review of Health Min LaGrange's Statement of Defence in wrongful termination lawsuit from fired AHS CEO Athana Mentzelopoulos.
@DuaneBratt AB Justice Minister posted a link to the Statement of Defence from the Dropbox of a Heather Jenkins, who appears to be the Ministry's Press Secretary.
@DuaneBratt GoA is again using external counsel rather than (excellent) in-house lawyers, just as they did in CM v Alberta in 2022, when LaGrange was Minister of Education.
Taxpayers paid for their representation + Justice Dunlop's penalty to pay Plaintiff's Costs.
I've tagged my MLA Kathleen Ganley on this, as she is a lawyer and former Justice Minister. I am neither, so I would appreciate her review of this, with advisors at @albertaNDP as required.
It is baffling to me, but as a layperson I looked deeper...
You're apparently renovating the bathroom above my friend's high-rise condo suite in NW Calgary, and here's what you (?) have done to her ceiling. Your "installer" apparently ran down to say he would "clean it up".
Sunday Brunch Buffet at @HyattCalgary with my sister for her birthday tomorrow. All this chef-prepared food, on heavy plates and silverware, and graceful perfect service for $45.
Don’t tell her I could probably afford this more than once/year.
@AdrianaLaGrange @ABDanielleSmith @JMeddings @alanna_smithh @TheBreakdownAB @JenLeeCBC @PfParks @LukaszukAB @reportrix @CheSkulskiCTV @ByMatthewBlack @DuaneBratt We know 120 mg/5 mL is European concentration, and 160 mg/5 mL is N American.
Yet you paid MHCare Medical $70m for 5m bottles (10-14x Canada's annual demand) of European concentration, when Atabay would have happily mixed the Canadian concentration in this custom order for us.
@AdrianaLaGrange @ABDanielleSmith @JMeddings @alanna_smithh @TheBreakdownAB @JenLeeCBC @PfParks @LukaszukAB @reportrix @CheSkulskiCTV @ByMatthewBlack @DuaneBratt This "risk was identified" AFTER this thick suspension clogged the tiny diameter gastric feeding tubes of infants in Neonatal ICU, not "children under two years of age".
Evasive minimizers!
And you still defended this off-label use afterwards.
I have friends in Ukraine, including one in the Armed Forces. I did not speak with him this morning (would never reveal when I did) but I spoke to other friends about this proposed unsellable, expiring inventory dump disguised as an "aid shipment."