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Ziad 😷 Fazel 🇨🇦🇺🇦 Profile picture
@ZiadFazel
Jan 3, 2022 • 31 tweets • 29 min read • Read on X
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Over the weekend, smart & caring people like this ⤵️ have been raising alarms about #COVID19AB virus measurable in Alberta wastewater.

So I'm here to explain:
• where to find the results for your city or town
• how to interact with the graph
• how to interpret the results
First, let me take you exactly to where to find these results:
• for now, it is the only graph on the "Wastewater" tab
• hosted at @ucalgaryCHI, the results are province-wide including years of innovative work by @UAlberta, @UCalgary, @ACWAWater et al

covid-tracker.chi-csm.ca
Now, although the CMOH said on 7 Dec 2021 it was just about here, after that I could find no information from CMOH, AB Health, or GoA about where to find the website, or how to use it.

It is as if the Gov had been suppressing this information for so long, it sorta squeezed out.
And it fell on @UofC_Science and @BabychStephanie at @calgaryherald to provide an explanation and a link to the site then.

Last week, @sarahoffin at @GlobalCalgary also explained how important wastewater sampling is.

Because AB Health is cutting back even further on PCR swab testing, we need other ways to see how fast #COVID19AB is spreading.

Spoiler Alert: WAY TOO FAST!

globalnews.ca/news/8479988/w…
In May when I built my #BalancedScorecard, I included @ucalgaryCHI wastewater sampling:
• it remains independent of government reporting
• not completely reliant on GoA funding
• everyone poops; not everyone gets swabbed
• wastewater sampling was a few days ahead of PCR
During Aug long weekend, I focussed on independent, daily R from @imgrund + wastewater sampling from @ucalgaryCHI, because:
• GoA's 28 July 2021 decimation of Test/Trace/Isolate would understate cases
• GoA was suppressing Alberta-wide results eg. UofA

In September, when we finally saw disinformation to cabinet in June to launch 4th wave:
• more empty promises about making wastewater results available
• which took until Dec to shart publicly
• did we ever see any local response, rather than top-down?

alberta.ca/assets/documen…
With above screenshot, I may have subtweeted @jvipondmd @PopAlberta @GosiaGasperoPhD with CMOH's notorious "SHIFTING FROM PANDEMIC TO ENDEMIC" document that:
• over-relied on highly-vaxed UK to predict AB Hospital
• cherry-picked worst to become worst

alberta.ca/assets/documen…
But I digress. Now that we have Alberta-wide wastewater sampling results:
• in a vacuum of information from PCR testing suppressed
• and rapid-testing results unavailable
• let's use it while we got it.

Lemme show you how...

covid-tracker.chi-csm.ca
1. Click on the name of your town or city on the map of Alberta on the right.

This will give you the graph for eg. Edmonton, which has been in just as much trouble as Calgary, and for which there are results since June 2020.

Why didn't we see that before, you may ask? Me too.
2. "Comparing sites is also problematic because different communities have different proportions of residential and industrial water use contributing to their municipal wastewater. The most important signals to compare are within a given community by following trends over time."
That's what most of us are looking for anyway:
• how is my town or city doing?
• how is the town or city of my loved ones, or my workplace, doing?
• oh ya, I remember we had it pretty bad around here before - you can see that confirmed in the wastewater sampling too, eh
"What the heck is this?" you may ask.
• Starting Date - eg. you can look since 1 July, for launch of the 4th Wave, or from 25 Nov, for neglect of the Omicron Wave
• Raw v Normalized - See Dr Parker explanation ⤵️
• I'll try to be your PhD whisperer

3. Raw v Normalized?

Raw = count of virus independent of whether lots of rainwater got into sewer, or industrial/residential mix

Normalized = uses fecal microbiota marker like Pepper Mild Mottle Virus* to focus on human poop in the wastewater.

* resists making jalapeño joke
4. N1, N2 or Average?

N1, N2, etc. are target sites on the virus that the wastewater sampling lab looks for.

If you want to know way more than me on this, read:

facetsjournal.com/doi/10.1139/fa…

@COVIDPoops19 is an awesome account to follow.

@threadreaderapp unroll

Thank you!
💩💩
Heavy media coverage yesterday about Alberta's wastewater sampling project, because:

Co-lead Dr Hubert: "There might be fewer people getting PCR tests, but what we do is a PCR test for the entire community."

@drdagly: ⤵️

AB Health: MonitoringClosely™

edmonton.ctvnews.ca/alberta-doctor…
Funding for the UofC and UofA projects has evolved, but AB Health is now funding the joint province-wide project with $3.4m (of Albertans' money).

As I explained throughout this thread, it is crucial these results remain publicly visible in realtime.

calgaryherald.com/news/wastewate…
True picture (therefore control) of #COVID19AB has been suppressed by 28 July 2021 Public Health Order that decimated Test/Trace/Isolate during 4th Wave.

Therefore we have to look at other signals like Wastewater Sampling, independent Daily R, and help from @bcCOVID19group...
@bcCOVID19group Dr Karlen had to switch from Cases to Hospital Admissions, and then analyze the lower testing volumes and higher test %, to explain Alberta's Urban/Rural Delta Wave.

pypm.github.io/home/docs/stud…

Impressive work from an experienced modeller to adapt to gaps in Alberta's information.
@bcCOVID19group @GosiaGasperoPhD @jvipondmd @PopAlberta @LeylaDAsadi @drdagly @noelgibney @RajBhardwajMD @dupuisj @demandsbetter @politicalham It will be interesting to see how Dr Karlan adapts to even more severe cuts in Testing, Tracing, Isolation, and the switch to unrecorded Rapid Testing, for Omicron now.

[Extremely unsubtle hint to read these].

pypm.github.io/home/docs/stud…

More on his work in a separate thread tbd.
@bcCOVID19group @GosiaGasperoPhD @jvipondmd @PopAlberta @LeylaDAsadi @drdagly @noelgibney @RajBhardwajMD @dupuisj @demandsbetter @politicalham We're fortunate that:
• despite Xmas reporting gaps
• 2-3 week lag of Albertans hitting hospitals from exponentially growing, unmeasured cases through Dec
• that Alberta-wide wastewater sampling became public
• so we can break down these graphs
Let's look at each one individually. Here:
• Virus measures N1 & N2 compared to new PCR swab test cases, and to test positivity
• As Dr Parkins explains (not Parker as I misstated above), wastewater virus sampling predicts both PCR swab test cases & positivity by about 6 days
Here, we see just how good the correlation between wastewater sampling results, and the 5-day moving average of daily new cases from swab tests.

Just as Dr Karlen at UVic infers underreported Cases from Hospital Admissions, we'll be able to infer them from Wastewater Sampling.
We see that here:
• Waves 2 & 3, qty of actual cases predicted 6 days earlier from wastewater sampling model was close.
• actual cases dropped off as swab testing capacity saturated ~ 20K tests/day
• in Wave 4, actual cases were below model, similar to what Dr Karlen saw.
Since we're here, let's look at Dr Karlen's 29 Dec model.

pypm.github.io/home/docs/stud…

He predicts severe outcomes at:
D: Hospital probability 10% of previous, Death 1%, Hospital Duration 10%
E: 30%, 9%, 30%
F: Same as previous

6-mo view ↙️ 2-mo view ↘️

pypm.github.io/home/docs/stud…
What's even scarier, is that Dr Karlen modelled these outcomes on 29 Dec, before AB Health had updated Hospital Admissions since 22 Dec (3.5/day/million people).

His next update will have the latest (currently 9.1).

2.6x higher, and climbing Omicron-fast.
I wish there were a simple formula like:

Cases = a x Wastewater + b

But we have to work more from trends than data points.

Dr Karlen has explained that pandemics have trends with the same slope for a while, than a switch to a new one. @GosiaGasperoPhD shows this too.
@GosiaGasperoPhD In the fall, I attempted to correlate @imgrund R with @ucalgaryCHI Wastewater project, who are inferring Cases from wastewater.

A different approach than @bcCOVID19group use of Hospital Admissions.

Or @KanjiJamil retrospective use of serosurveys.

Hoping there are connections.
@GosiaGasperoPhD @imgrund @ucalgaryCHI @bcCOVID19group @KanjiJamil For those of you new to Dr Karlen's work, there is this 54-min video, accessible to someone comfortable with first-year university-level math & science.



and this scientific paper, which is somewhat deeper.

pypm.github.io/home/docs/stud…
@GosiaGasperoPhD @imgrund @ucalgaryCHI @bcCOVID19group @KanjiJamil In retrospect, I won't be doing a separate thread on Dr Karlen's work.

I know I lost some of you moving from wastewater into his modelling, but may have picked up some ID docs, epidemiologists, engineers, etc along the way who are able to see the connections better than me.

• • •

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More from @ZiadFazel

Ziad 😷 Fazel 🇨🇦🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jun 7
I was going to tweet about my early dinner tonight at Palomino (cliché food pics) but just got hit with wall of SWEET sound when I went downstairs to use the washroom, and opened the steel door to basement concert hall.

WOW.

This is "Olde Ghosts" warming up - in this program. My photo with permission of Olde Ghosts 4-piece band warming up (I'd say they're already on fire) as I went to basement washroom at Palomino (shared with underground concert hall).
In the program they are listed as "Old Ghost" which may just be a miscommunication between Palomino mgmt and Band mgmt. Still gets the message across.
I am a nerdy 58-yr-old engineer who surprises people with 2 unexpected traits: a love for good metal, and endless jokes.

On the latter, I am like Leslie Nielsen who could easily get even people braced for his hidden fart accordion to crack up. But I'm not using one....yet.👺
With metal, I was raised with Indian music my parents played, like the Pakeezah soundtrack, until the cassette literally broke.

This is one of the songs from that movie. It builds until Meena Kumari (Indian's Marilyn) dances with those 2 😍 backups.

Read 9 tweets
Ziad 😷 Fazel 🇨🇦🇺🇦 Profile picture
May 30
Kinda proud of myself. Also.. life is hilarious.

I’ve been eating a lot of rich, flavourful food recently, and I went from a salmon/capers omelet at OEB to the passcode protected washroom in food court at Fifth Avenue Place. Took a massive, relaxed dump.

Laughing as I type.
So I’m washing my hands - even had the foresight to take a restaurant napkin to dry my hands and use on the door lever to exit (trust me on this) and a distinguished gentlemen t about 60 walks in.

And visibly buckles, and groans.

I’m trying not to laugh out loud.
I step out of washroom and all of this is hitting me as I walk slowly to exit escalator, down to a bench on 5 Ave, where I am typing this now.

I’m almost crying not to burst out laughing.

And the Punjabi woman security guard sweetly asks me “Are you OK?”

No, Bhenji. I’m not.
Read 4 tweets
Ziad 😷 Fazel 🇨🇦🇺🇦 Profile picture
May 25
This @NewsHour story too new to have transcript as well as published video interview with Dr @jasonmnagata but here's his website for his research:

ucsfbenioffchildrens.org/providers/dr-j…

@tylerblack32 @TheBreakdownAB @KmarkovCTV @picardonhealth @JenLeeCBC @MurrayManera @JSJamato @gabefabreau x.com/NewsHour/statu…
Didn't have room for @TehseenLadha @orlaghokelly @John1MD @dupuisj @vettergreenart
@TehseenLadha @orlaghokelly @John1MD @dupuisj @vettergreenart @threadreaderapp unroll please

The transcript is up now at:



@tylerblack32 @TheBreakdownAB @KmarkovCTV @picardonhealth @JenLeeCBC @MurrayManera @JSJamato @gabefabreau @drDavidKeegan @amandalhu @CalgarysChild @MarciaOnTheGo pbs.org/newshour/show/…Ali Rogin: Dr. Nagata, thank you so much for joining us. Social media children, lots of questions, few answers. What did your study find? Jason Nagata: We followed 12,000 preteens over three years and we actually found big rises in social media use. So during that period, social media on average increased from seven minutes a day to over 70 minutes a day. So a tenfold increase. And in our analysis, we actually found that rises in social media from year to year among these 9 then 10 then 11-year olds were actually associated with future depressive symptoms in the following year. So I thin...
Ali Rogin: So what you're saying is that you found the correlation here to be with social media use leading to more depressive symptoms, not the other way around. You're saying that depression doesn't necessarily indicate use of social media? Jason Nagata: Yes. In our study, were able to follow these same 12,000 kids year to year. So were able to look at both their depression and their social media use every single year. And so we could look at patterns in their use. And we found that those kids who had big spikes in their social media use from year to year then subsequently had bigger sp...
Ali Rogin: And talk to us about the size and the scope of this study. This sounds massive. How did you track this many children and has that been done before? Jason Nagata: So, yeah, the data comes from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study. It is a national study that follows these 12,000 kids from over 21 different states, study sites across the U.S. and it's funded by the National Institutes of Health and is I think one of the largest studies on child development and social media and brain health ever.
Ali Rogin: That's such a fascinating ancillary piece of information that you found in looking at this data. I do want to ask though, what is your advice for parents with the understanding that this data brings us to. Jason Nagata: Yeah, we actually looked at parent actions for rules and monitoring in the study and we actually found that the biggest predictors of kids screen use was actually their parents screen use. And as a new parent I think it's really important to practice what you preach. So if you're going to tell your kids to put down their phones to important that you role model g...
Read 4 tweets
Ziad 😷 Fazel 🇨🇦🇺🇦 Profile picture
May 8
🧵 Alberta's Reigning Queen of deceptive cherry-picked public health stats, Health Min LaGrange, was back at it Monday, this time over measles immunization.

Bonus Topic: Where is the source for the widespread claim that airborne measles is only infectious up to two (2) hours? Screenshot from Goa 5 May 2025 press release, where Health Min LaGrange made the same claim in the YouTube press conference: [below is the quote verbatim, but I would put sarcastic quotes around "facts"] "Quick facts • Currently, appointments in the central zone are available within one day, while in the south zone appointments are available usually within one to two days. • Following increased efforts to educate Albertans on measles and the importance of immunization, there has been a significant rise in immunizations across the province. Since March 16, there has been a 67...
Excerpt from GoA lengthy web page on measles "How measles spreads Measles is an extremely contagious disease, spread easily through the air. You do not need to be in direct contact with someone who is infected. You can get measles just by passing through a room or location where a person who is infected was up to 2 hours before. The person who is infected does not still need to be there to put you at risk of disease. Measles can also be spread through coughing, sneezing, yelling, singing and breathing."
@TheBreakdownAB @JMeddings @PfParks @LukaszukAB @JenLeeCBC @GosiaGasperoPhD @Mark_Ungrin @dupuisj @DrFiliatrault @TimmCTV Let me provide the links for the above two graphics:

• cherry-picked measles immunization stats

alberta.ca/release.cfm?xI…

• purported 2-hour limit on infectious airborne measles

alberta.ca/measles
@TheBreakdownAB @JMeddings @PfParks @LukaszukAB @JenLeeCBC @GosiaGasperoPhD @Mark_Ungrin @dupuisj @DrFiliatrault @TimmCTV On the deceptive, cherry-picked measles immunization stats, LaGrange said "Since March 16, there has been a 67% increase in comparison to last year."

Let's look at actual graphs & data tables.

alberta.ca/measles#jumpli… "Figure 2a. Measles containing immunization doses administered by week and geography, 2023-2025 for Alberta" showing the 2025 line does not cross over 2023 and 2024 lines until 16 March 2025. Prior to that, 2025 was well below both 2024 and 2023.
Closeup of graph, showing the yellow 2025 line does not cross over black 2023 and red 2024 lines until 16 March 2025. Prior to that, 2025 was well below both 2024 and 2023.
Closeup of graph, highlighting the yellow 2025 line to show better that it does not cross over black 2023 and red 2024 lines until 16 March 2025. Prior to that, 2025 was well below both 2024 and 2023.
Data table for GoA's graph, showing the actual numbers of measles immunization shots per week in those 3 years.
Read 42 tweets
Ziad 😷 Fazel 🇨🇦🇺🇦 Profile picture
Apr 24
I was just treated TERRIBLY by @HyattCalgary. Manager just denied me service in restaurant for some vague reasons behind:

“None of the staff are comfortable with you and want to serve you.”

Huh? You just lost polite, loyal 20% tip customer. Maybe my friends too.

See you never.
The VP who oversees the restaurant was not on, but I left my business card.

My @Hyatt loyalty card, which shows zero as it has not updated for my purchases since February, when my car died, and I found walking there convenient. High prices, but matching food & service (!) Image
@Hyatt Now, I don’t care about my points, as I will never visit @HyattCalgary again, for any reason.

I won’t spend much time with the VP if he or she calls me. This is their problem to solve, not mine. I’ll get nothing from it either way - I’m gone.
Read 4 tweets
Ziad 😷 Fazel 🇨🇦🇺🇦 Profile picture
Apr 22
Dear @CalgaryPolice and other smart people. I'm looking for 2 things:
• video of press conference and written response by Chief @neufeld_mark to Dreeshen's stupid announcement early Dec 2024
• GoA policy & evidence to get sites approved for photo radar

calgary.ca/cps/traffic/ph… x.com/DevinDVote/sta…
@CalgaryPolice @neufeld_mark I didn't know until now of this formal 12-month pilot while looking for more information related to my witnessing a cop nearly killed on Centre Street @ Samis Road on Sat night by a speeder who pulled over, then zoomed away.

@reportrix @MBellefontaine

cbc.ca/news/canada/ca…
@CalgaryPolice @neufeld_mark @reportrix @MBellefontaine I always knew Dreeshen's announcement, served in a "No Cash Cow" BBQ apron with Beef on a Bun for reporters, was colossally stupid.

I learned it kicked in on 1 April.

Will talk on record about my direct personal experience from this Saturday night.

Read 4 tweets

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