Ziad 😷 Fazel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jan 3, 2022 31 tweets 29 min read Read on X
Over the weekend, smart & caring people like this ⤵️ have been raising alarms about #COVID19AB virus measurable in Alberta wastewater.

So I'm here to explain:
• where to find the results for your city or town
• how to interact with the graph
• how to interpret the results
First, let me take you exactly to where to find these results:
• for now, it is the only graph on the "Wastewater" tab
• hosted at @ucalgaryCHI, the results are province-wide including years of innovative work by @UAlberta, @UCalgary, @ACWAWater et al

covid-tracker.chi-csm.ca
Now, although the CMOH said on 7 Dec 2021 it was just about here, after that I could find no information from CMOH, AB Health, or GoA about where to find the website, or how to use it.

It is as if the Gov had been suppressing this information for so long, it sorta squeezed out.
And it fell on @UofC_Science and @BabychStephanie at @calgaryherald to provide an explanation and a link to the site then.

Last week, @sarahoffin at @GlobalCalgary also explained how important wastewater sampling is.

Because AB Health is cutting back even further on PCR swab testing, we need other ways to see how fast #COVID19AB is spreading.

Spoiler Alert: WAY TOO FAST!

globalnews.ca/news/8479988/w…
In May when I built my #BalancedScorecard, I included @ucalgaryCHI wastewater sampling:
• it remains independent of government reporting
• not completely reliant on GoA funding
• everyone poops; not everyone gets swabbed
• wastewater sampling was a few days ahead of PCR
During Aug long weekend, I focussed on independent, daily R from @imgrund + wastewater sampling from @ucalgaryCHI, because:
• GoA's 28 July 2021 decimation of Test/Trace/Isolate would understate cases
• GoA was suppressing Alberta-wide results eg. UofA

In September, when we finally saw disinformation to cabinet in June to launch 4th wave:
• more empty promises about making wastewater results available
• which took until Dec to shart publicly
• did we ever see any local response, rather than top-down?

alberta.ca/assets/documen…
With above screenshot, I may have subtweeted @jvipondmd @PopAlberta @GosiaGasperoPhD with CMOH's notorious "SHIFTING FROM PANDEMIC TO ENDEMIC" document that:
• over-relied on highly-vaxed UK to predict AB Hospital
• cherry-picked worst to become worst

alberta.ca/assets/documen…
But I digress. Now that we have Alberta-wide wastewater sampling results:
• in a vacuum of information from PCR testing suppressed
• and rapid-testing results unavailable
• let's use it while we got it.

Lemme show you how...

covid-tracker.chi-csm.ca
1. Click on the name of your town or city on the map of Alberta on the right.

This will give you the graph for eg. Edmonton, which has been in just as much trouble as Calgary, and for which there are results since June 2020.

Why didn't we see that before, you may ask? Me too.
2. "Comparing sites is also problematic because different communities have different proportions of residential and industrial water use contributing to their municipal wastewater. The most important signals to compare are within a given community by following trends over time."
That's what most of us are looking for anyway:
• how is my town or city doing?
• how is the town or city of my loved ones, or my workplace, doing?
• oh ya, I remember we had it pretty bad around here before - you can see that confirmed in the wastewater sampling too, eh
"What the heck is this?" you may ask.
• Starting Date - eg. you can look since 1 July, for launch of the 4th Wave, or from 25 Nov, for neglect of the Omicron Wave
• Raw v Normalized - See Dr Parker explanation ⤵️
• I'll try to be your PhD whisperer

3. Raw v Normalized?

Raw = count of virus independent of whether lots of rainwater got into sewer, or industrial/residential mix

Normalized = uses fecal microbiota marker like Pepper Mild Mottle Virus* to focus on human poop in the wastewater.

* resists making jalapeño joke
4. N1, N2 or Average?

N1, N2, etc. are target sites on the virus that the wastewater sampling lab looks for.

If you want to know way more than me on this, read:

facetsjournal.com/doi/10.1139/fa…

@COVIDPoops19 is an awesome account to follow.

@threadreaderapp unroll

Thank you!
💩💩
Heavy media coverage yesterday about Alberta's wastewater sampling project, because:

Co-lead Dr Hubert: "There might be fewer people getting PCR tests, but what we do is a PCR test for the entire community."

@drdagly: ⤵️

AB Health: MonitoringClosely™

edmonton.ctvnews.ca/alberta-doctor…
Funding for the UofC and UofA projects has evolved, but AB Health is now funding the joint province-wide project with $3.4m (of Albertans' money).

As I explained throughout this thread, it is crucial these results remain publicly visible in realtime.

calgaryherald.com/news/wastewate…
True picture (therefore control) of #COVID19AB has been suppressed by 28 July 2021 Public Health Order that decimated Test/Trace/Isolate during 4th Wave.

Therefore we have to look at other signals like Wastewater Sampling, independent Daily R, and help from @bcCOVID19group...
@bcCOVID19group Dr Karlen had to switch from Cases to Hospital Admissions, and then analyze the lower testing volumes and higher test %, to explain Alberta's Urban/Rural Delta Wave.

pypm.github.io/home/docs/stud…

Impressive work from an experienced modeller to adapt to gaps in Alberta's information.
@bcCOVID19group @GosiaGasperoPhD @jvipondmd @PopAlberta @LeylaDAsadi @drdagly @noelgibney @RajBhardwajMD @dupuisj @demandsbetter @politicalham It will be interesting to see how Dr Karlan adapts to even more severe cuts in Testing, Tracing, Isolation, and the switch to unrecorded Rapid Testing, for Omicron now.

[Extremely unsubtle hint to read these].

pypm.github.io/home/docs/stud…

More on his work in a separate thread tbd.
@bcCOVID19group @GosiaGasperoPhD @jvipondmd @PopAlberta @LeylaDAsadi @drdagly @noelgibney @RajBhardwajMD @dupuisj @demandsbetter @politicalham We're fortunate that:
• despite Xmas reporting gaps
• 2-3 week lag of Albertans hitting hospitals from exponentially growing, unmeasured cases through Dec
• that Alberta-wide wastewater sampling became public
• so we can break down these graphs
Let's look at each one individually. Here:
• Virus measures N1 & N2 compared to new PCR swab test cases, and to test positivity
• As Dr Parkins explains (not Parker as I misstated above), wastewater virus sampling predicts both PCR swab test cases & positivity by about 6 days
Here, we see just how good the correlation between wastewater sampling results, and the 5-day moving average of daily new cases from swab tests.

Just as Dr Karlen at UVic infers underreported Cases from Hospital Admissions, we'll be able to infer them from Wastewater Sampling.
We see that here:
• Waves 2 & 3, qty of actual cases predicted 6 days earlier from wastewater sampling model was close.
• actual cases dropped off as swab testing capacity saturated ~ 20K tests/day
• in Wave 4, actual cases were below model, similar to what Dr Karlen saw.
Since we're here, let's look at Dr Karlen's 29 Dec model.

pypm.github.io/home/docs/stud…

He predicts severe outcomes at:
D: Hospital probability 10% of previous, Death 1%, Hospital Duration 10%
E: 30%, 9%, 30%
F: Same as previous

6-mo view ↙️ 2-mo view ↘️

pypm.github.io/home/docs/stud…
What's even scarier, is that Dr Karlen modelled these outcomes on 29 Dec, before AB Health had updated Hospital Admissions since 22 Dec (3.5/day/million people).

His next update will have the latest (currently 9.1).

2.6x higher, and climbing Omicron-fast.
I wish there were a simple formula like:

Cases = a x Wastewater + b

But we have to work more from trends than data points.

Dr Karlen has explained that pandemics have trends with the same slope for a while, than a switch to a new one. @GosiaGasperoPhD shows this too.
@GosiaGasperoPhD In the fall, I attempted to correlate @imgrund R with @ucalgaryCHI Wastewater project, who are inferring Cases from wastewater.

A different approach than @bcCOVID19group use of Hospital Admissions.

Or @KanjiJamil retrospective use of serosurveys.

Hoping there are connections.
@GosiaGasperoPhD @imgrund @ucalgaryCHI @bcCOVID19group @KanjiJamil For those of you new to Dr Karlen's work, there is this 54-min video, accessible to someone comfortable with first-year university-level math & science.



and this scientific paper, which is somewhat deeper.

pypm.github.io/home/docs/stud…
@GosiaGasperoPhD @imgrund @ucalgaryCHI @bcCOVID19group @KanjiJamil In retrospect, I won't be doing a separate thread on Dr Karlen's work.

I know I lost some of you moving from wastewater into his modelling, but may have picked up some ID docs, epidemiologists, engineers, etc along the way who are able to see the connections better than me.

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More from @ZiadFazel

Dec 23
In Alberta, babies under 1 year old are getting clobbered by Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), and it is overloading our children's hospitals:
• Hospitalized at 36x the rate of average Albertan
• Hospital & ICU at 3x rate of COVID in babies under 1

alberta.ca/stats/dashboar…Line graph and table of Total hospital admissions, ICU admissions, and deaths among laboratory-confirmed RSV cases in Alberta by age group, 2024-2025
Line Graph and Table of Total hospital admissions, ICU admissions, and deaths among laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases in Alberta by age group, 2024-2025
Typical LaGrange-style quote in reporting by @JenLeeCBC:

"In a statement emailed to CBC News, a spokesperson said the hospital is seeing an increase in respiratory admissions, which "aligns with seasonal trends.""

Likely untrue, despite the vagueness.

cbc.ca/news/canada/ca…
Expecting mothers should speak with their family physician or obstretician (like @FionaMattatall) about getting vaccinated during their pregnancy to protect their newborns. (I'm not a doc)

RSV shots are $1000 each, but perhaps other immunizations.

cbc.ca/news/canada/ca…
Read 5 tweets
Dec 22
Alberta is projected to have its worst influenza vaccine coverage since 2010-2011.

9 weeks into this year's flu shot campaign, we're at 19%. Last year, we were at 23%.

This whole season's coverage projects to 22%.
• last yr 25%
• 2011/12 was 23%

alberta.ca/stats/dashboar…Line graph of cumulative weekly immunizations showing at week 50 of this year's campaign (9 weeks in) 929,380 shots administered so far, which is only 90% of last year's 1,037,278 at the same time.
Line graph of cumulative weekly immunizations showing at week 50 of this year's campaign (9 weeks in) the coverage for all ages is 18.9%
Line graph of cumulative weekly immunizations showing at week 50 of last year's campaign (9 weeks in) 1,037,278 shots administered so far
Line graph of cumulative weekly immunizations showing at week 50 of last year's campaign (9 weeks in) the coverage for all ages was 22.7%.
Seniors 65+, at week 50, 9 weeks into the campaign:
• This year, only 49.2% coverage.
• Last year, 59.4% coverage.

LaGrange's arrogant, deceptive decision to cut off community medical clinics obviously figures largely in this drop.

cbc.ca/news/canada/ca…2024 vaccine coverage for certain ages at week 50, showing only 49.2% for age 65+
2023 vaccine coverage for certain ages at week 50, showing 59.4% for age 65+
Both last year and this year, peak weekly flu shots administered was in week 42:
• This yr, only 243,207
• Last yr, 330,264

Many of us are now off from school or work for the Xmas holidays. Good time to get vaccinated. It should help you for January return to school or work. Column graph of weekly flu shots administered, showing in week 42: • This yr, only 243,207
Column graph of weekly flu shots administered, showing in week 42: • Last yr, 330,264
Table of Influenza vaccine doses administered and coverage by season and provider, showing: • 2010-2011 was 20% • 2011-2012 was 23% • 2023-2024 (last year) was 25% • 2024-2025 to data at week 50 only 19%
Read 5 tweets
Dec 18
3-min video posted 31 Oct 2024 by Liricom & Plenary shows what they expect provincial taxpayers to build + operate for them between airport & "Grand Central Station".

For free.
/h @project_calgary

@DruhFarrell @TheBreakdownAB @CWalcottYYC @jasmine_mian

Before I get into pros and cons, let me just help you figure out their bizarre colours:
🟧 for Calgary Airport Downtown Express track that is at grade or in the 80th Ave tunnel
🟦 Teal (close enough) for stations
🟨 for track that is elevated from Bow River near zoo to Crowchild
Why does it need to be elevated from south shore of Bow River near Zoo, to Downtown West End before Crowchild?

Because CPKC wouldn't let them stay parallel at grade though downtown. Needed to be elevated to not interfere with freight loading/unloading at grade.

"Seamless". Image
Read 6 tweets
Dec 16
When UCP claims their elevated track & station #GreenlineYYC design through Beltline into Downtown is better than tunnels, but🚩won't release a single rendering, others will.

😱

Visit @yycbeltline web page, where each image is labelled. You barely recognize the streets after.
@yycbeltline Beltline Neighbourhoods Association tries to recreate Dreeshen's claim that only one "non-driving lane" on 10 Av would be affected (after multi-year construction probably closes the whole street) by rendering only a single column for the track and two columns for station.
@yycbeltline They use structural designs from Sunalta, which is 15 m above ground, but have to render two columns straddling reduced 10 Ave to support Beltline station.

Sunalta station is supported by an enclosed building, with interior stairs, escalators & elevator.

gecarchitecture.com/projects/sunal…
Read 10 tweets
Dec 13
Confirmation GoA's plan for Green Line into downtown is terrible:
• no press conf
• nowhere in press release do they state where it crosses the rail tracks, or meets 7 Ave
• only 1 high level map - no renderings or closeup on downtown
• no AECOM quote

alberta.ca/release.cfm?xI…Screenshot of bottom of press release where you would normally see multimedia or backgrounder. Instead, "Related Information" only has  "map of proposed downtown elevated route".
1-page PDF with 2 maps on it - previous route and GoA proposal - that are so small and high level you cannot see the "map of proposed downtown elevated route" as touted in the press release link.
@TheBreakdownAB @GregGinYYC @DuaneBratt @CWalcottYYC @jasmine_mian @JyotiGondek @cspotweet @AdamMacVicar @LiveWireCalgary @GreenLineYYC Rick Bell's "exclusive" claims the crossing into downtown is at 2nd Street SW, but I refuse to link to that propaganda. @LiveWireCalgary has always provided excellent, deep journalism on #GreenLine and they confirms the crossing AND the cheap blindside.

livewirecalgary.com/2024/12/13/pro… LWC has asked for a copy of the report done by AECOM for further review. A response has not yet been provided.  Calgary city council has also not seen the details, according to several councillors. City admin had apparently not seen the AECOM report before the province released details.  “We have not received the AECOM report before (Minister) Dreeshan ran to (Postmedia columnist) Rick Bell,” wrote Ward 8 Coun. Courtney Walcott via text.  In an official statement, the City of Calgary said that until council had the opportunity to review the report, including alignment and costing, they coul...
@TheBreakdownAB @GregGinYYC @DuaneBratt @CWalcottYYC @jasmine_mian @JyotiGondek @cspotweet @AdamMacVicar @LiveWireCalgary @GreenLineYYC Some quick work with Apple Maps 3D views shows crossing into downtown at 2 St SW requires:
• elevation over a circular ramp and vehicle bridge across the tracks to parkade
• crossing two Plus 15 pedways
• a third Plus 15 medway just north of 7 Ave

calgary.ca/content/dam/ww… 3D map view of crossing into downtown and proposed station at 7 Av and 2 St SW
3D satellite view of crossing into downtown and proposed station at 7 Av and 2 St SW
Calgary Plus 15 map where I have circled the crossing into downtown as well as the proposed station location from https://www.calgary.ca/content/dam/www/transportation/roads/documents/road-maintenance/plus-15-skywalk-network-map.pdf?noredirect=1
Read 11 tweets
Dec 6
With PFC film members leaving Xitter, in last week's PFC, I promised to look into a shared calendar to potentially replace this Community.

Fiona (or anyone else we decide) can create a Google Calendar just for PFC, and share it with specific people.

🧵

support.google.com/calendar/answe…"Share a calendar with specific people" section from link.
My concern about privacy, like everyone's email address shared with everyone else in the group, have been resolved with the oddly-named "See all event details" access permission, which doesn't even show the guest list.

But there are still other privacy concerns I want to check. "Control access to your calendar & individual events" table from link.
Obviously, the owner of the shared calendar would have to know the email addresses of the PFC members who want to subscribe to it.

I don't know if any one of the subscribers can see who the other subscribers are, or their email addresses.
Read 6 tweets

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