"After several years of games and conflicts, the major forces of the region have reached a point of rebalancing" - one of China's leading experts on the Middle East, Li Weijian of SIIS, provides a year-end assessment of the regional situation for Xinmin Evening News
Excerpts:
1/6 Image
"This year has seen new developments in the Middle East. After several years of games and conflicts, the major regional forces have reached a point of rebalancing. Countries have launched a series of proactive diplomatic actions to reduce regional tensions, and
2/
"some countries that were previously hostile or distant from each other have begun to come closer through bilateral interactions or third-party mediation, and the regional situation has significantly improved... The new ME situation is driven by the following factors:
3/
"First, the US continued strategic withdrawal, as well as the drastic changes in its ME policies under the last two administrations, have made an increasing number of ME countries believe that the US is no longer trustworthy...
4/
"Second, the conflict dynamics between the two camps in the past not only caused regional division but also consumed a large amount of regional countries' development resources and hampered cooperation among countries in the field of regional development and governance...
5/
"Third, in this era of great changes, geopolitical power rebalancing and readjustment are not only a product of the existing intn'l order and the rebalancing among major powers but also part of the process of ME countries returning to the region's geopolitical realities."
6/6

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More from @GeringTuvia

6 Jan
"Other possible causes of the current mass riots in Kazakhstan should be considered, particularly the role of NGOs. The possibility that they receive foreign funding cannot be ruled out" - Yang Jin of CASS makes a telling argument for what's unfolding in #Kazakhstan.
1/11 Image
Yang is the deputy director of the Institute of Russian, Eastern European, and Central Asian Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), a top think-tank under the auspices of the Chinese government.
2/
Contrary to some "Western reports," Yang believes the situation will soon stabilize for three reasons:
"First, according to the majority of the Kazakhstani public, the situation has not yet boiled to the point where a change of government or top ruler is needed.
3/
Read 12 tweets
4 Jan
"This rare moment of calm in the Middle East's long history of chaotic wars is a gift to the people of the region and a blessing for the rest of the world" - CICIR President Yuan Peng joins a chorus of Chinese analysts who've begun to acknowledge the existence of "a new ME".
1/12 Image
CICIR, a think tank affiliated with the Ministry of State Security and overseen by the CCP's Central Committee, has released its annual International Strategy and Security Situation Assessment. I recommend reading the report's preface by Yuan. MENA-relevant excerpts:
2/
"Following the withdrawal of US forces, the ME has shown a level of calm not seen in years. Several countries have begun a gradual transition, the Iranian nuclear issue has returned to the negotiating table, and relations between Israel and Arab countries, in general, have eased.
Read 12 tweets
28 Dec 21
"We have full confidence in our ability to beat any opponent within 1,000 nautical miles, including the US and its coalition forces" - IR Professor Jin Canrong of Renmin U, a "US-hand," believes that the possibility of the US engaging in a Taiwan dispute is very low. Excerpt:
1/4
"One advantage we have over our adversaries is that we have superior electronic warfare capabilities. And the rocket force you mentioned... China leads the world in medium- and medium-long-range conventional missiles. There is no force on the planet that can compete with us.
2/
"The US has fallen far behind us; for example, we are the best in hypersonic missiles. They've only recently begun to test this technology, and I believe they're at least five years behind us.
3/
Read 4 tweets
27 Dec 21
"In the future, Chinese aircraft carriers will undoubtedly be seen on the high seas around the world. We already have two aircraft carriers, and we're training farther and farther out in the Pacific beyond the first island chain" - Senior Colonel (ret) Professor Zhou Bo.
1/5
Zhou Bo, a senior fellow at Tsinghua University's Center for International Security and Strategy and a China Forum expert, sat down for a long and, as always, fascinating interview to discuss 13 years of Chinese escort missions in the Gulf of Aden. Excerpt:
2/
"By the middle of this century, the Chinese navy, in my opinion, should be an expanded version of Zheng He's fleet. What Zheng He brought to the people of the West was awe, but more than that, admiration, and it conveyed to them a majestic and peaceful image.
3/
Read 6 tweets
9 Dec 21
"So-called 'innate human rights' are of mere conjecture in and of themselves" - Lu Pinyue of the Shanghai Municipality Research Center for Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era and a senior professor at Shanghai U of Finance and Economics
1/4
Lu, like many other mainland experts, has written an essay in the run-up to the Democracy Summits that started today, titled "The End of the American Democracy Myth and the Birth of a New Kind of Democracy for Humanity".
2/
It packages the same trite arguments on the US not being a true democracy, but "democracy of capital", that China under the CCP with Xi Jinping as the core is not only a "true democracy", free of the ills of Western democracy but a bona fide...
3/
Read 4 tweets
9 Dec 21
"The economic card is currently our best hand, with political influence following in second and security coming in third" - US expert Professor Wu Xinbo of Fudan University speaks on the "impact of US hegemony's decline on the international order."
1/
Wu sees three scenarios: the status quo order, which China should endeavor to maintain, a quasi-cold war, which China should prepare for, and a full-fledged Cold War, which China should adamantly oppose. Excerpt:
2/
"The economic card is currently our best hand, with political influence following in second and security coming in third. With the exception of a few countries, US allies would virtually always side against China in the case of a major power clash.
3/
Read 5 tweets

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