Thread by @DAlperovitch

My original thread on the high likelihood of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in the next 2 months has sparked a lot of great conversations and debate, so I now want to follow it up with another that discusses a potential solution to resolve this crisis peacefully🧵

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1473362460673515527

First, let’s quickly recap why Russia’s invasion is very likely

TL;DR Putin believes that the time to achieve his strategic objectives of keeping Ukraine out of Western military orbit is NOW because it is
a) doable (militarily, politically and economically) and
b) if he doesn’t do it now, it might be too late in the future

Ukraine’s military is becoming stronger and more capable thanks to key investments and combat experience over the last 8 years, Western weapons (TB2 drones, Javelins, etc) and trainers and advisors. He also believes NATO is entrenching itself on the ground in the country

So what he thinks might be achievable for the Russian military in Eastern Ukraine today, may be much more difficult and costly to execute if he bides his time and waits.

Given that reality, what can be done to change his mind and/or deter an invasion?

Some have suggested that the answer lies in acquiescing to some of Putin’s demands and promising to stop NATO’s eastern expansion, at least when it comes to Ukraine

https://twitter.com/stephenwertheim/status/1478100275923718149

I think this solution may have been sufficient to avoid conflict 6 months ago or earlier, but it is too late now as Putin’s appetite has grown considerably, in part due to his confidence in Russia’s military abilities and justifiably panicked Western response to his threats

In any case, I don’t believe a promise to block further NATO expansion to the east to be politically feasible. Democrats and Republicans in Congress would be outraged, as would our European allies

Biden administration would look unacceptably weak - in an election year no less. And it might even encourage other adversaries (think Iran, maybe even China - although probably less likely) to miscalculate and do something stupid in their respective regions

Even putting a confidential proposal like that on the table in the upcoming Geneva talks could be perilous as you cannot trust the Russians not to leak it publicly (they just did so with confidential diplomatic correspondence with France and Germany)

As I said previously, threat of sanctions alone also will not deter an invasion. Russia is quite resilient to them today

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1473365700634812417

And the truly nuclear sanctions against the oil and gas industry are not likely due to European dependency on gas and spiking energy prices globally

Getting cutoff from SWIFT will hurt but there are alternatives, such as Russian developed SPFS and China’s CIPS. And Europe is likely to use them in order to keep buying Russian gas, so many international banks will quickly implement them to continue transfers with Russian banks

Russia is also threatening a significant response to these sanctions which might trigger the Biden administration and European allies to be cautious about going all out on this very overutilized tool

In fact, Putin’s counter threat in a Dec 30 call with Biden to break all diplomatic relations if severe sanctions are imposed could also be additional code for ‘I will sabotage the Iranian nuclear talks,’ which Biden still desperately wants to get done

Russia, after all, is a key player in the P5+1 talks with Iran in Vienna and has some leverage and influence in Tehran

There is likely other points of leverage that Putin can exert on us in other parts of the world. Think North Korea. Unfortunately, he is not without options to cause us problems worldwide

Some suggest that the way to deter an invasion is to provide major weapons platforms to Ukraine such as C-RAMs like Land-Based Phalanx Weapon System, Patriot batteries, Multiple Launch Rocket Systems, anti-tank Javelin missiles and others

One issue with this proposal is that it is simply too late to enact it. Any meaningful deployment like this cannot be accomplished overnight - it would take weeks, if not months. Not to mention training the Ukrainians to operate them (Javelins aside)

Plus it would be easily and quickly detected by considerable Russian intelligence assets (SIGINT and on the ground HUMINT in Ukraine) and likely would prompt Putin to start an invasion long before such systems would become operational — encouraging it, rather than deterring

Another problem with weapons supplies is that the US actually doesn’t have many meaningful options for defensive weapons systems that could be very useful to Ukraine to fight an advanced adversary like Russia (such as short/medium-range air defense systems)

We don’t build such weapons because they are not very useful to the US military though they could be invaluable to smaller nations like Ukraine (or Taiwan)

Once again @RALee85 makes an absolutely brilliant point here - we need better, smaller, simpler weapons systems to supply our allies that can’t fight like us. Alas, we don’t have them today to help solve our current crisis

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1473377773502844934?s=20

Some also mention utilizing cyber attacks as a way to deter Putin. This deserves its own whole thread on why it can’t work but suffice it to say that no cyber attack in history has been able to demonstrate such strategic impact as to affect an adversary’s behavior or deter them

So if a promise to freeze NATO expansion, sanctions, cyber attacks and military aid won’t work in time, what else can be done to avoid war in the next 2 months?

I think the answer may lie in affecting Putin’s calculus that he has to act NOW.

*Freeze the conflict* and buy time

Negotiate a deal on a freeze of provision of NATO military support (game-changing weapons like Javelins and TB2s, as well as trainers/advisors) to Ukraine that changes the balance of power in Donbas IN EXCHANGE and IN CONJUNCTION WITH a Russian troop pullback from the border

Then commit to a longer term negotiation on mutual security guarantees in Europe, discussion of NATO expansion issues, implementation of Minsk agreement to resolve Donbas conflict, ballistic missile systems in Europe, and other issues of concern to *both* parties

The talks will of course be done in full consultation with our NATO allies and Ukraine itself. This will be a complex diplomatic negotiation that will take years and should not be rushed or conducted under the gun as Putin is demanding

So that is the carrot that can be offered in the Geneva talks on Jan 10. But in every good negotiation, you also need a stick. Severe sanctions have already been proposed very publicly - and pretty much ignored or counter threatened by Putin

What are some of the things that Putin is really scared of? Well, luckily we don’t have to guess that. He tells us himself — often

One of them is deployment of short and intermediate-range missiles close to Russia’s borders. He is obsessively talking about the ‘4-5 minute flight time to Moscow’ and deployments of Mark 41 Vertical Launching System in Romania and Poland

So Putin doesn’t like intermediate-range missiles on Russia's border? Well, let’s promise he’ll face more of them if he invades!

We should privately deliver the message that in the case of an invasion of Ukraine, we will immediately move to deploy MK41s launch systems with (conventional, not nuclear, ofc) Tomahawk missiles in the Baltics and in Western Ukraine. That will be a credible and serious threat

So Putin’s choice will be clear - he can either get his nightmare scenario of 4-5 minute NATO missile flight time to Moscow or he can have a freeze of the military status quo which won’t eliminate his future options but will give everyone room and time to negotiate a lasting deal

To be clear, I think the likelihood of success here is still quite low but it is probably the best chance we have to avoid a devastating conflict and further destabilizing and violent redrawing of the map on the European continent

Plus, since the Biden administration, NATO and OSCE have now agreed to hold talks next week with Russia, we might as well come in with a proposal that is something more than just pointless and ineffective threats of more sanctions

In summary, Buy time for extensive negotiations:
If Putin pulls back troops, we’ll freeze game-changing military aid to Ukraine (CARROT)
Else if he invades, NATO will deploy conventional (non-nuclear) Tomahawk missiles with 5 min flight time to Moscow on Russia’s borders (STICK)

There are, of course, numerous details to still work out here - especially those of the proposed freeze and sequencing of troop pullback, but unlike the Kremlin, I don’t post full treaty text before the start of the talks 😉

END

Point of clarification: Javelins/TB2s are not game-changing weapons in deterring Russia's invasion. But they are (in Russia's view) in altering the military balance of power in Donbas against Russia-supported separatists