Dmitri Alperovitch Profile picture
Geopolitics, NatSec, Great Power Competition, Cybersecurity. Chairman @SilveradoPolicy; Host @GeopolDecanted; Founder @alperovitch; Co-Founder @CrowdStrike
🇺🇦🇺🇲☕️Coffee&Robots🤖🌊🇺🇦🇺🇲 Profile picture Michael Hood Profile picture BlueGlowAgave 🌻 Profile picture Sue Strong 🦋🌻🚜🇺🇦#StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦🚜🌻🦋 Profile picture #TrumpMyPresident Profile picture 60 added to My Authors
Sep 23 4 tweets 1 min read
Mobilization was always a very risky political move for Putin
But the utterly incompetent way in which it is being carried out—with terrible communication, contradicting criteria, grabbing of men on the streets, etc is likely to erode support for the war and for him personally 🧵 Many Russians that have husbands, sons and fathers of mobilization age are completely petrified right now.
Given that this may not be the last mobilization they are going to need to execute, the regime’s political fortunes could turn quite rapidly
Sep 21 15 tweets 2 min read
New video released in an interview format of Defense Minister Shoigu. Quick thread 🧵 Shoigu: In February, we knew that Ukrainian Armed Forces had 201-202k forces. Their casualties are over 100k. Killed 61,207 and 49,368 wounded (Ed: amazingly precise numbers for something that is virtually impossible to count accurately)
Sep 21 4 tweets 1 min read
Putin has responded to the humiliating and shocking (to the system) Russian military defeat in Kharkiv oblast
His choices were to:
A) Do nothing
B) Try to negotiate an end
C) Escalate

He chose to escalate and proclaim an explicit goal of liberating Donbas, which is a tall order In doing so, he has painted himself into a corner and has potentially put his rule under threat, if he fails in achieving his stated goal of conquering Donbas
Sep 21 33 tweets 2 min read
The much delayed Putin TV address is here. Live tweeted summary is below 🧵 Talking about the necessary steps to preserve Russia and the right of self determination
Sep 14 12 tweets 2 min read
Remarkable video from a prison colony in Russia of Prigozhin himself recruiting inmates for Wagner Full translation here
Aug 30 9 tweets 4 min read
One of the objectives that @DrRadchenko and I wanted to achieve in our @ForeignAffairs piece (link below) is to debunk some of the prevailing myths about Russia. Here are the most important ones: 🧵

foreignaffairs.com/russian-federa… Myth #1: Once Putin leaves power/dies, Russia will abandon its anti-Western belligerent policies and return to the bosom of the liberal Western order

Reality: Putin is most likely to be replaced by another hardliner who will continue or even accelerate his aggressive policies
Aug 24 13 tweets 2 min read
"Despite the flaws that would emerge in Russia’s war planning, the outcome of the battle for Kyiv was far from predetermined"

washingtonpost.com/national-secur… "A senior U.S. defense official said Washington knew more about Russia’s plan to invade than about Ukraine’s plan for defense, fueling doubts about how Kyiv would fare"
Jul 14 14 tweets 3 min read
I am very proud of this inaugural report from Cyber Safety Review Board (CSRB) on the #Log4j incident. Grateful for the leadership of our Board Chair @DHS_Policy and Deputy Chair @argvee. Here are the most important highlights from my perspective 🧵 1. CSRB has found NO EVIDENCE of any malicious exploitation of vulnerability prior to the December 9th public disclosure of the vulnerability. This is important since there was speculation about whether China or any other country may have had early knowledge and exploited the bug
Jul 3 28 tweets 7 min read
Time to talk about realistic ways to lift the Black Sea blockade which, as I've discussed on many occasions, remains the most important strategic issue for Ukraine in this war (since their victory in the Battle of Kyiv in March) 🧵 With the blockade in place, Ukraine's export-driven economy simply can't survive without billions of dollars of continuous monthly support from the West
Jul 2 9 tweets 2 min read
Thoughts on Russian power...

We certainly went quick from 'Russia is destroying our democracy' to 'Russia is not a great power and is irrelevant on the world stage'. Both are dramatic overstatements of reality... 🧵 Yes, Russia is nowhere close in its ability to project power globally as US or China. That's obvious. It is only the 11th largest economy in the world and highly dependent on resource extraction (even more so now after latest sanctions)
Jun 20 19 tweets 5 min read
Two months ago I said that the fight for the Donbas would have little bearing on the outcome of the war

Now as that fight moves into its attritional phase, Putin's evolving strategy is becoming quite clear. He believes time is on his side. And he may be right 🧵 Having failed at his original (and wildly unrealistic) plan of replacing the Zelensky government in 3 days and not having the forces to go back for major new offensives, Putin's best bet for achieving strategic success is now at the negotiation table
May 21 17 tweets 3 min read
Interesting piece on how it wasn’t the NATO expansions of the 90s but US-led action against Iraq and in the Balkans that eventually drove US-Russia relationship off the cliff

But here is what I think the author is missing… 🧵 Ultimately it wasn’t just the outrage of “not being consulted” that infuriated the Russians
May 4 24 tweets 5 min read
I am going to go out on a limb here and make a prediction that Putin will not do a full mobilization call on May 9th or anytime in the near future

I could be wrong and I don’t have as much confidence in this call as I did in my invasion prediction back in December 👇 but… 🧵 Here is why I think a mobilization call makes little sense for Putin
Apr 30 27 tweets 5 min read
Let’s talk about the state of the war and one of the most underreported yet crucially important issues:

Russian blockade of Ukrainian ports and resulting strangulation of the country’s economy 🧵 First, the state of the war.

Ukraine has won the Battle of Kyiv and forced Russia to withdraw from the north
Apr 26 4 tweets 1 min read
No, Lavrov did not threaten nuclear war in today’s interview. Quite the opposite.

He said: “Nuclear war is unacceptable, this is Moscow's principled position” 🧵 Yes, Lavrov also said that “the risks of nuclear war are now very significant, and this danger cannot be underestimated”

HOWEVER, here is the full context to that statement:
Apr 22 13 tweets 2 min read
A lot of misinterpretations of Deputy commander of Russian Central Military District Rustam Minnekaev’s statement this morning on this site. Here is what he actually said: 🧵interfax.ru/world/837353 “Since the beginning of the second phase of the special operation, it has already begun just two days ago, one of the tasks of the Russian army is to establish full control over the Donbas and southern Ukraine”
Apr 8 8 tweets 2 min read
Despite the angry rhetoric and today's provocative action from Moscow, the practical consequences for Russia of Finland and Sweden joining NATO are minor since both are already members of EU and thus have ‘mutual assistance and solidarity’ guarantees from other EU member states🧵 This obligation to provide military (and other) assistance does not currently extend to the US, of course, but it would be difficult to see us not get involved if other EU and NATO countries are engaged militarily in the defense of Finland or Sweden and request our help
Mar 26 15 tweets 3 min read
One month into Russia’s war on Ukraine, it is worth stepping back and taking stock of the geopolitical results for Russia thus far 🧵 Putin launched the war as an effort to once and for all 'resolve' his Ukraine problem (its pro-Western orientation), reassert Russia's greatness on the world stage and firm up control of the post-Soviet space: send a message to everyone that flirtations with EU/NATO are dangerous
Mar 25 11 tweets 2 min read
Quick thread on today's very important developments from the Russian MOD briefing

Essentially we are reaching - as they themselves acknowledged today - the new phase of the war and it is a combination of #1 and #2 of my predictions below 🧵 Putin - to his credit - has appeared to realize that he cannot achieve his original maximalist objectives of taking Ukraine and/or replacing its government with a puppet regime. Despite their statements now, this absolutely was his goal from the beginning of the conflict
Mar 23 6 tweets 2 min read
Fascinating claimed intercepted call from Russian officer near Mykolaiv to superiors in Russia. He says:
- This is worse than Chechnya
- 50% of troops have frostbite
- They can’t evacuate the dead
- Don’t have enough tents
- RU plane dropped a bomb on their own position 🧵 - One column was hit with Grad rockets. Can’t even figure out if it was friendly fire
- Medics only have bandages. Can’t help with frostbite
- No hot stove
- Digging trenched to sleep in
- Commander of 49th CAA told troops on 4th day that war will be over in hours
Mar 18 14 tweets 2 min read
Zelensky in last night’s address: “The 22nd day of our struggle against one of the world’s largest armies has ended. An army, which we are making smaller every day. Every day” Zelensky: “But it (Russian army) still has numbers, equipment and reserves. We have information the Russian military is recruiting mercenaries from other countries. Trying to deceive as many young people as possible into military service. You and I know this will not help them”