People say that we should update vaccines so they will make antibodies that are better adapted to Omicron, but I wonder if there isn't a case that we should deliberately *not* do that. Here is the argument, which may be completely wrong. 1/n
It's now pretty clear that Omicron is intrinsically milder than previous strains, so since SARS-CoV-2 is not going anywhere, it's better if Omicron replaces all the other strains and fully takes over everywhere eventually. 2/n
If this happens, there is a better chance that all variants in the future will descend from Omicron, and therefore a better chance they'll be similarly mild. This would put us in a more desirable endemic equilibrium other things being equal. 3/n
Now, Omicron has a better chance of taking over everywhere if it keeps its transmission advantage thanks to greater immune escape, which will no longer be the case or to a lesser extent if we give people Omicron-adapted boosters now. 4/n
We can always give people Omicron-adapted boosters later, when it has truly taken over everywhere, so that from that point on any new variant will likely descend from Omicron and inherit its relative mildness. 5/n
The reason why I think this argument might be completely wrong is that it assumes there are "developmental constraints" so that, once you start from Omicron, you are unlikely to get a more virulent strain via natural selection. 6/n
If this isn't true, not vaccinating people with Omicron-adapted boosters now will just result in more deaths in the short-run, without putting us in a more desirable endemic equilibrium in the long-run, so again this idea may be completely stupid. 7/n
But if there *are* such developmental constraints (do we even know?) then it might be a good idea to wait before we inject people with Omicron-adapted boosters, just so we don't reduce Omicron's transmission advantage by negative its immune evasion advantage. 8/n
Despite what many people believe, there is no reason why an emergent virus must always evolve to become less virulent, so with Omicron we have just lucked out and I wonder if, by injecting people with Omicron-adapted boosters now, we might not squander this bit of luck. 9/n
It probably doesn't matter anyway, because we're clearly too dumb to test, approve, produce and inject on a large scale Omicron-adapted boosters before Omicron has fully taken over, if it's destined to do so, but I thought it was something interesting to think about. 10/10
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