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Trinh Profile picture
@Trinhnomics
Jan 5, 2022 • 8 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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Happy New Year: So far in Asia, we have the same winners in 2022 as in 2021 and the same losers are doing badly.

Chinese listed stocks in Hong Kong falling while India, Taiwan, Indonesia, Vietnam are up! Image
Commodities are up, especially food. Oil up too, now 80/barrel.

Dollar is up, yield is up, and inflation is now more key than growth concerns. Why? Look at this chart. Image
US cases & deaths in five days (net change). Cases exploding but deaths are actually lower (yes, I know it is lagging but so far hospitalization, esp ICU, points to likely lower fatality).

The way it surges in the US, likely reaching herd immunity rather fast. Image
What's the best vaccine for Covid? Having had Covid obvs (and survive!) A study shows that 87% Indonesians have antibody & 73.2% of the population w/ no vaccines + no history of Covid have antibody (likely asymptomatic?)

So good news for Indonesia. Image
Here are the cases in Southeast Asia: Indonesia is going DOWNNN and that's a good thing.

So is Malaysia, Thailand. Vietnam too but still high. Either way, Southeast Asia data looks good :-) after bad Delta, Omicron seems to be not raging here. Image
Factors that help??? Well, high vaccination + high antibody (note for Indonesia, those not vaccinated & even cases of Covid got antibody so they must have had it and fought it off without knowing it).

In other words, this makes me optimistic about 2022 & the endemic strategy. Image
Here are the cases for the rest of Asia: lower for South Korea, low for India, Japan, and Singapore but trending upward. Overall manageable. Note all these economies are going for endemic, including Southeast Asia. Image
No far, no lockdown in Asia ex China. And that is one of the key optimism for our 2022 outlook. Time to move on from 2020 strategy as vaccination is higher (and antibody is there!) Image

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More from @Trinhnomics

Trinh Profile picture
Jul 24
India unveiled its FY25 budget yesterday (btw, they have another one in 6 months) & it was very much a fiscal consolidation, jobs, and responding to people's beef about the woeful labor market (Modi lost seats in Uttar Pradesh).

Before I talk about the Budget, let's talk about India labor supply & demand. Ready?Image
As you know, India is the most populous country in the world today & will be even more so in the future.

Let me put it a different way, by 2040, one out of 5 people will be Indian.

So what happens to India matters because it's a fifth of the world population by 2040. Image
India will have more people than China or the same as China and the US combined.

Yes, a lot of people. That's beautiful (generally referred as demographic dividend assuming that we have jobs for them) and highly problematic for India (high joblessness and civil unrest), Indian politics and also how to manage this massive supply of people (skilling them, finding jobs for them etc).Image
Read 31 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
Jun 18
As a follow up to that podcast, Bloomberg had a story that just came out that blew my mind. I knew it but they really dug deep.

This is a story about economics, resources, comparative advantage & the choices we make.

Nickel. What do you know about it?

bloomberg.com/features/2024-…Image
First, nickel is a material that has to be DUG out of the earth & process. Some easier (colder nickel in Russia) & some harder like wet & warm places like Indonesia where you have plenty of it but it's the processing that's difficult.

Here comes China.
The mining & processing of nickel are energy intensive. And more importantly, for Indonesian nickel, it was considered too low grade to do & China had breakthroughs in a technology called high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL). "Low-grade nickel ore is placed into pressure vessels, where it’s treated with sulfuric acid and heated. After that, the nickel that separates out will be suitable for batteries, once it’s refined"Image
Read 12 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
Jun 17
China new home sales fall further & while some may say that the real estate is now not so important for China, it remains a key driver of wealth effects & that is negative. Meaning, the data dump that we will get in 10 mins will likely show a further misaligned economy where consumption falters while supply rises.
This will add to further tensions with the West & even the South as China will need to export that excess supply, driven by policy to rise in the value chain, or to vertically integrate its supply chain, to the rest of the world.

Chinese corporates will increasingly have to do it via tariff arbitrage, as in third country export or building factories where they want to sell.
Some say it doesn't matter as Chinese firms gain market share.

Actually, it does matter. Employment matters. So unless they can get Chinese workers to manufacture goods in third country or in the country/region of export, over time, employment demand will fall in China for manufacturing.
Read 6 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
Jun 14
I just listened to this & took some notes. Allow me to share it in a thread. Worth for all interested in EV, Indonesia, Nickel, China etc.
Indonesia now has 55% of global nickel production & home to the world's largest reserves.

Why does this matter? First, what is nickel used for?
Nickel, before EV & the use of it for battery specifically, is used for stainless steel, which you use for everything from pans to etc.

Nickel pig iron (NPI) is a low grade ferronickel as a cheaper alternative to pure nickel.

Class 1 nickel is used in EV batteries & it's much purer.
Read 15 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
Jun 5
Good morning Asia!

Instead of a landslide, we got earthquakes, Modi & the BJP got the most seats but much less than they benchmarked (400) & less than 2019 (303) at 240. To govern, they need to work with fickle allies to operate a coalition government.

This will require a much more consensus driven governance.
That may be positive or negative depending who u are. Meaning, in the short-term, forming a government takes priority over long-standing reforms that are already politically difficult when they had the government. We may have more fiscal welfares & so if we continue with the same capex, fiscal deficit may widen. Or we may have less capex than before. Irrespective, this area will be watched carefully. Under Modi, grain & fertiliser subsidies remain large & was promised to be in place.

Note that India fiscal deficit has consolidated as of late but remains large. What has changed is the quality - higher tax rev ratios & more capex & less subsidies as share of GDP
Some say that a coalition won’t change as it is still Modi in change. But that is IF a coalition stays the course (he got some really fickle allies) & this that if adds to risk premium in the short-term.

Irrespective, India fiscal is in a rather decent shape so we have a solid foundation to work with here.
Read 5 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
May 13
This article in the FT doesn't make any sense. The author argues that Modi fails to create job for low-skilled people, esp labor-intensive manufacturing. It also faults Modi for its high-end growth (services, high-tech, infra, etc)

But then it ends with saying, well, don't bother to even develop manufacturing and just work on service exports.

Wait a minute. How is India going to generate jobs? ft.com/content/c4631d…
Btw, all the critiques of India makes sense. The issue I have with Rajan and also Congress is their solutions.

They don't have one. Literally. Rajan tells India to forget about trying to do manufacturing & focuses on services.

India exports a lot of services. Manufacturing is the weak spot, not services!!! And if u want a lot of jobs, u need labor-intensive manufacturing.
A country with such a large population needs to growth via all sectors - services, manufacturing, agriculture etc. You can't leapfrog development & go to services.

India & the Philippines have tried that. Not working & hence need to include manufacturing & infrastructure building.
Read 4 tweets

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