Like many numbers types, I tend to obsessively follow the Covid data. One big story, which will probably get more coverage soon, is FL's rapid rise in the dismal rankings 1/
These are 7-day averages, which are a lagging indicator during a surge; also, FL does only about half as much testing as NY. So the outbreak in FL is probably already worse than NY's 2/…
The political relevance is obvious. Just a month or so ago, FL officials were boasting about their low case rate (never mind all those deaths earlier in 2021). Just days ago they were sneering at how NY, with all those restrictions, was leading the nation in cases 3/
Partly this involved misrepresenting how onerous NY rules are. There was a huge and creepy flap over photos of AOC dining outdoors in FL, an activity that in NYC would have been and in fact still is — completely legal and normal 4/
Anyway, FL officials are, predictably, responding to the surge in reported cases by calling for ... less testing 5/…
But what will they do when hospitalizations surge? FL is less vaccinated than NY — probably less than the numbers say, bc Miami-Dade is inflated by snowbirds and vaccine tourism. Plus the state has been anti-booster. So probably a significantly worse hospital case than NY 6/
Well, they're already floating the argument that people who are hospitalized for other reasons then found to have Covid shouldn't count. 7/…
In short, the DeSantis administration has learned nothing from its deadly summer, except that if you deny reality loudly enough, you may get away with failure 8/…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @paulkrugman

2 Jan
Obviously this is a subjective take (which is fine!) but there are multiple reasons now to believe that reports of NYC's death were greatly exaggerated — and that's part of a larger story 1/…
Until Covid came along we were looking at a clear — and in some ways troubling — bifurcation of US economic geography. A knowledge economy "wanted" to concentrate in large, highly educated metros, leaving much of the heartland stranded 2/
Then came the virus, and for a little while people thought "density=death", and hence that the trend would reverse — although even then such movement as took place was largely to suburbs and exurbs of the big metros 3/
Read 9 tweets
1 Jan
Do you share my sense of dread about the year ahead? If not, why not? 1/
At this point I'm not personally all that afraid of Covid. I do know vaxxed/boosted people who've had breakthrough cases, but both anecdotes and the available data say that these cases are usually mild. For those acting responsibly, we're down to normal-risks-of-life levels 2/
Longer term I'm terrified of climate change. But at this point that fear has been overtaken by the near-term risk of political catastrophe right here in America 3/
Read 7 tweets
30 Dec 21
Price controls VERY occasionally have their uses — during wartime when rationing is rampant and perceived fairness/lack of profiteering are important 2/
There's also a *possible* argument for temporary controls to break a wage-price spiral that is persisting despite a weak economy — although making that work is so hard that it would be a strategy of last resort 3/
But we don't have a weak economy; we have inflation because we have a booming economy, with supply chains having trouble keeping up with the boom in goods consumption. And there's no hint of a wage-price spiral 4/
Read 4 tweets
30 Dec 21
Covid time is a flat circle, especially in FL. Remember when the first Covid wave started in the NY area, and right-wingers demanded that we apologize to Ron DeSantis — just as infections and deaths soared across the Sunbelt? 1/
Then that episode went down the memory hole and it was back to anti-mask and social distancing being great — until the Delta wave wreaked havoc across the red states, FL in particular 2/
And then that wave subsided, and until a few days ago DeSantis's people were boasting about their low case rate as Omicron hit the Northeast first. Sure enough 3/
Read 8 tweets
19 Dec 21
Absolutely. As someone who began my academic career in the late 70s, as equilibrium macro was tightening its grip, we all knew that fundamental business cycle issues were a minefield nobody with a reality sense would enter 1/
Try to publish anything in which monetary policy — let alone fiscal policy — did what it clearly did in the real world, and you would be blockaded from the journals and frozen out of appointment committees. You had to keep yr views private and build your reputation elsewhere 2/
International macro was a bit better because Rudi Dornbusch's work kept sticky-price macro respectable. But even so you had to frame your work as being abt exchange rates or financial crises and hope people didn't notice the Keynesian core 3/…
Read 5 tweets
17 Dec 21
Wondering whether David will get the kind of hate mail I've been receiving over my Kentucky piece 1/…
The odd thing was that I didn't say anything negative about the people of Kentucky (as opposed to their politicians), or assert in any way that they were responsible for their state's problems. I just pointed out the arithmetic 2/…
All I said was that KY should acknowledge that it benefits from a transfer union in which richer states subsidize poorer — as they should! Btw, I did a scatterplot on this a couple of years back 3/
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!


0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy


3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!