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Cab Davidson #FBPE Profile picture
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5 Jan, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Even including catch-up data for deaths, thats ghastly. Genuinely ghastly. Tomorrow is likely to dee a drop from last Thursday but we are now, unmistakably, seeing deaths rise quite fast. Hospitalisations also rising, and fast.
This -should- be the last catch-up data day for deaths. And last Thursday was also a catch-up day. But whatever the deaths data we get tomorrow, it is now impossible for deaths to be lower than before Christmas. We're already up over that, for 7 days, in tomorrows data...
...or in other words, we know for sure that deaths are rising. Tomorrows data starts to tell us how fast. The average daily rise over 7 days right now is 14% - that still includes the post-Christmas catch up though. Tomorrow and Friday we get real data to correct this...
...but whatever that data is, and I can't stress this enough, deaths are up. Its a matter of how much by.

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More from @gnomeicide

Cab Davidson #FBPE Profile picture
6 Jan
So we've had a big hospitalisations data drop today, as well as the rest of the normal daily Covid data. Might split this stats update into a couple of parts, pre and post dinner. Here's the overall picture before delving deeper (1) Image
179756 cases. Thats insane, bud lower than last Thursday. Don't get too excited though, last Thursday we had some delayed data (2) Image
The trend is still massively upwards, but because we're starting to get better data it may settle down rather. Over the last 7 days we're still looking at over a 4% rise in cases per day. (3) Image
Read 19 tweets
Cab Davidson #FBPE Profile picture
6 Jan
Today we're getting to the meat and drink of real Covid data in the UK. Deaths in particular, we'll start to see real data and we'll finally have a better idea of where we are. For context, where we were (1)
In the week running up to Christmas we were averaging 111-116 deaths a day. Deaths per day had been falling almost imperceptibly slowly during December (2)
By Christmas Eve recorded Covid cases had started to go absolutely bonkers. We'd just topped 100k per day on average, that day. A week earlier that average was 68k, another week back it was 49k (3)
Read 11 tweets
Cab Davidson #FBPE Profile picture
5 Jan
Looking at projections for Covid cases and deaths today and the turbulence in the date makes them really quite wild. Deaths, on trend, would be 65-95, a wide range because over Christmas the numbers have been all over the place (1)
Whereas cases, they've been more bonkers on Wednesdays than other days, of late its been the day when we've seen the biggest rises. On recent trend, based on last Wednesday and average changes, it would be 253,923 to 283,036 (2)
And yes, I know, that would be a huge jump. 21 days back we were averaging about 63k cases, 14 days ago 88k cases, a week ago 125k cases. And by yesterday, 176,964 was the the average number per day (3)
Read 4 tweets
Cab Davidson #FBPE Profile picture
4 Jan
Todays Covid data is shocking but perhaps most worrying in how incomplete it is. Here's the overall picture, I'll go into the key parameters over the next few tweets (1) Image
Cases are bonkers, and while its fair to say we've had some crazy days of reporting, its still very obviously enormous. 218,742 cases today, and its not even a surprise (2) Image
1,238,751 cases over the last 7 days. That figure doesn't include reinfections (3) Image
Read 11 tweets
Cab Davidson #FBPE Profile picture
31 Dec 21
I kind of feel I must interrupt festivities to talk about Covid data in the UK right now. tl;dr version: literally every indicator is going to shit. Here's the overall picture before going into it all (1)
Where to even begin. Well I suppose, lets start with cases. We've hit the most astonishing milestone of over 1 million recorded cases in a week (2)
In that context, obviously we've seen the record daily figure repeatedly smashed. Todays figure is another record, 189,846 - the last 3 days have clustered near there, we may hage hit a testing ceiling. Hardly surprising with testing being basically swamped (3)
Read 18 tweets
Cab Davidson #FBPE Profile picture
24 Dec 21
Record Covid cases again in the UK today, deaths up, hospitalisations rising FAST. Here's the overall picture, I'll go into each trend over the next however many tweets. (1)
Deaths are rising again. Two of the last 3 days have seen big rises. Its not in itself huge yet but its cause for concern (2)
Todays total of 137 is way over trend, sufficient to change things from a weekly fall of 0.3% to a rise of 0.3% after today. (3)
Read 19 tweets

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