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Rob Lee Profile picture
@RALee85
Jan 5, 2022 • 189 tweets • 83 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
If Russia were normally to deploy military forces to Kazakhstan, we would expect to see units from the Central Military District's 41st Combined Arms Army based in Siberia and the Urals, which is almost completely deployed near Ukraine and Belarus right now.
Russia still has plenty of units that it can deploy if necessary, but you wouldn't want to start a conflict with Ukraine right now while the situation in Kazakhstan is so uncertain. Wars are inherently unpredictable, and Russia's situation just became more complex. 2/
I think Russia was pretty well prepared for an escalation with Ukraine. Its economy is pretty strong right now with record-high currency reserves, and the likelihood of mass protests is unlikely given Russia's efforts to jail or undermine its opposition. This could change that.3/
I doubt Russia will deploy any more ships from the Caspian Flotilla to the Black Sea while the situation is in flux in Kazakhstan. They deployed far more ships in the spring. And Russia would want to keep more of its SOF available for any potential Kazakhstan scenarios. 4/
Some of the specific units we would expect to see used in an operation in Kazakhstan include the 55th Mountain Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 15th Peacekeeping Motorized Rifle Brigade, which have both been deployed near Ukraine. Both units often take part in CSTO exercises. 5/
6/
7/
With the backdrop of the Taliban's victory in Afghanistan, Russia has conducted several CSTO exercises this summer and fall, particularly with Central Asian members. So the CSTO's rapid reaction forces should be better prepared to respond than normal. 8/
9/
Let's keep in mind that a deployment of CSTO peacekeepers could just mean sending units to control and run airports in Kazakhstan. They could obviously be deployed beyond if required, but we shouldn't assume that yet. 10/
11/
The CSTO didn't come to Armenia's aid during the Karabakh war, even though Azerbaijan struck targets in Armenia proper (not just Karabakh where its security guarantees don't extend). And Russia and Belarus armed Baku; however, Russia did threaten to intervene at the end. 12/
13/
14/
It will be interesting to see what role, if any, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and China play in this. Will Russia welcome such a security role for China? Does China want to take such a role? I would think this will be mostly CSTO/Russia led but something to watch. 15/
As a reminder, Russian VDV units often take part in peacekeeping exercises (in this case, the 31st Air Assault Brigade), including with other CSTO members. Including painting peacekeeping signs on their BMD-4M IFVs. 16/
I don't expect Russia to reduce its military footprint near Ukraine because of this, but it may mean that they could slow the deployment of further reinforcements (at least from the VDV) for the time being. 17/
Ren TV reports that the VDV's 76th Air Assault Division's spetsnaz company and a company from the VDV's elite 45th Spetsnaz Brigade will be deployed. GRU/GU Spetsnaz brigades have also reportedly been alerted. 18/
t.me/rentv_news/294…
This tracks with @galandecZP reports that Il-76 and An-124 transport aircraft are headed to Moscow, including one from Pskov. Notably, the VDV's 45th Spetsnaz Brigade is located next to the SSO's Kubinka-2 SMU just outside of Moscow. 19/
ImageImage
The CSTO announced that the first Russian peacekeepers are currently inflight on their way to Kazakhstan. 20/
ria.ru/20220106/mirot…
21/
The first video of Russian peacekeepers heading to Kazakhstan via Il-76 transport aircraft. 22/
t.me/zvezdanews/647…
The first Russian units to arrive as ADVON will likely be SOF (Zvezda likely won't publish videos of them). Zvezda says that troops from Armenia, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Belarus, and Russia will deploy to Kazakhstan. 23/
tvzvezda.ru/news/202216109…
Zvezda says the purpose of the peacekeeping deployment is to protect important state and military facilities in Kazakhstan and to assist local law enforcement officers in stabilizing the situation. The CSTO confirmed Russian VDV units are being sent. 24/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
Roscosmos' Dmitry Rogozin said the situation at the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan is under control. 25/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
The Baza Telegram channels says Russian paratroopers arrived at the Almaty Airport a few hours ago and are preparing to move into the city in a few hours. 26/
t.me/bazabazon/9296 Image
Certainly possible that Russia could increase its influence over Kazakhstan’s leadership by helping put down the protests. But, as with Belarus, how stable would Kazakhstan be beyond the short-term? Probably not a long-term solution. 27/
28/
Video of Russian paratroopers arriving in Kazkahstan. The vehicle is a Tigr-M SpN with an Arbalet-DM remote-operated weapon sight, which are very rare. Likely from the VDV's 45th Spetsnaz Brigade. 29/
tvzvezda.ru/news/202216172…
Video of paratroopers with BTR-D and BMD-2 armored vehicles preparing to be flown to Kazakhstan from the
Chkalovsky airfield. 30/
tvzvezda.ru/news/202216151…
Video of the VDV's 31st Air Assault Brigade preparing to be flown to Kazakhstan with BMD-4M armored vehicles (likely BTR-MDM too), BTR-82A, Typhoon-K MRAPs, and KAMAZ trucks. 31/
tvzvezda.ru/news/202216141…
Video of paratroopers, almost certainly from the 45th Spetsnaz Brigade, preparing to fly to Kazakhstan from the Chkalovsky airfield. Note the BTR-82A and Tigr-M SpN vehicles with Arbalet-DM remote operated weapon systems. 32/
t.me/ok_spn/16318
t.me/zvezdanews/647…
Ren TV says that the spetsnaz company from the VDV's 76th Air Assault Division was sent, a company from the 45th Spetsnaz Brigade (likely larger), and the GRU/GU's 2nd and 24th Spetsnaz Brigades have been placed on high alert. 33/
m.lenta.ru/news/2022/01/0…
They also said a battalion from the 55th Mountain Motorized Rifle Brigade could be sent. Much of that brigade has been deployed near Ukraine and Belarus, but there may be a battalion + formation still in Tuva. 34/
Video of a Russian Air Force Il-76 transport aircraft loading Belarusian troops and equipment before flying to Kazakhstan. 35/
t.me/zvezdanews/647…
Belarus is sending a company from the Belarusian SSO's 103rd Airborne Brigade to Kazakhstan as part of the CSTO forces. 36/
Unsurprisingly, a Leer-3 electronic warfare system, which comes with Orlan-10 UAVs, is being deployed to Kazakhstan. Among other things, the Leer-3 can be used to locate and interfere with cell phones service. 37/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=… Image
Ria Novosti reports five Il-76 transport aircraft with Belarusian troops have arrived in Kazakhstan. 38/
t.me/rian_ru/138233 Image
As with the end of the war in Karabakh, Russia's Military Transport Aviation is demonstrating how important an effective air lift capability is. It is critical to be able to quickly deploy and sustain forces from across the CSTO in support of an operation. 39/
Izvestia also reports that the spetsnaz company from the VDV's 76th Air Assault Division, units from the 98th Airborne Division, 45th Spetsnaz Brigade, 31st Air Assault Brigade are headed to Kazakhstan as well as Belarus' 38th Airborne Brigade. 40/
iz.ru/1273928/anton-…
Video of a Russian An-124 transport aircraft taking off from Chkalovsky airfield for Kazakhstan. 41/
t.me/zvezdanews/647…
Video of paratroopers loading onto an Il-76 transport aircraft at Chkalovsky airfield before departing for Kazakhstan. Note the AK-12 rifles. 42/
t.me/zvezdanews/647…
Video of a Russian VDV unit heading to an airport before departing for Kazakhstan with BMD-2 vehicles. 43/
m.tvzvezda.ru/news/202216123…
Vedomosti reports the total size of the Russian force headed to Kazakhstan will not exceed 5,000 servicemen. 44/
vedomosti.ru/politics/artic…
Reportedly a column from Kyrgyzstan’s 25th Spetsnaz Brigade preparing to be deployed to Kazakhstan. 45/
t.me/ok_spn/16312
t.me/ChDambiev/12707
46/
The conditions in Kazakhstan will dictate the size of Russia's force. Now that Russia has committed troops to Kazakhstan, they won't let the situation get worse. If Kazakhstan's security forces can't handle the job, Russia will send more troops. 47/
This is probably obvious, but this is an extremely significant moment for the CSTO. Inaction would have been a huge risk for Russia (as happened in Kyrgyzstan in 2010 and Armenia in 2020) but so is taking action. Not sure if this will turn out to strengthen or weaken the CSTO.48/
Kazakhstan is a huge country. If protests continue across the country, that makes it extremely difficult for Russia and the CSTO to quell the unrest everywhere (5k troops wouldn't be enough). It would be much easier if the protests are localized in Almaty. 49/
If Russian or other CSTO forces had to forcefully put down protests, I think that would be one of the worst case scenarios for Moscow. I wouldn't expect to see that unless things keep deteriorating and Kazakhstan's security forces crumble. 50/
51/
Video of a VDV R-142DA command post vehicle being loaded onto an Il-76 aircraft headed for Kazakhstan. 52/
bastion-karpenko.ru/r-142da-kshm/
tvzvezda.ru/news/202216114…
The Russian MoD said that they are continuing to fly troops to Kazakhstan from the Chkalovsky (45th Spetsnaz Brigade), Ivanovo-Severny (98th Airborne Division), and Ulyanovsk-Vostochny (31st Air Assault Brigade) airfields. 53/
interfax.ru/world/814162
BMD-2, BTR-D, and KamAZ and Ural trucks from the VDV's 98th Airborne Division's 331st Airborne Regiment likely headed to Kazakhstan. 54/
Video apparently from last night of BMD-2 and BTR-D airborne armored vehicles from the VDV's 98th Airborne Division's 331st Airborne Regiment likely headed to Kazakhstan from Kostroma. 55/
Video from earlier today of BMD-2 and BTR-D airborne armored vehicles presumably from the VDV's 98th Airborne Division's 331st Airborne Regiment headed to Kazakhstan. 56/
57/
Servicemen and a Tigr-M SpN vehicle with a rare Arbalet-DM remote operated weapon system from the VDV’s 45th Spetsnaz Brigade arriving in Kazakhstan. 58/
t.me/rian_ru/138251
From earlier today, a Leer-3 EW system designed to track cell phone signals and suppress them loading onto an Il-76 transport aircraft at Chkalovsky. 59/
t.me/zvezdanews/647…
More KamAZ trucks being loaded onto Il-76 outside Moscow tonight. Looks like more Leer-3 systems. 60/
t.me/rian_ru/138249
In addition to the previously mentioned units, Altyn, a reliable Russian defense observer, identified vehicles from the 15th Peacekeeping Motorized Rifle Brigade and GRU/GU 3rd Spetsnaz Brigade (I think the BTR-82A and Typhoon-K K-53949 MRAPs). 61/
bmpd.livejournal.com/4463881.html ImageImage
Photos from the morning show a MPUS-K command post loading onto an Il-76 and a Tigr-M offloading in Kazakhstan. (H/t @tom_bullock_) 62/
t.me/milinfolive/74… ImageImageImageImage
The Russian MoD says the main force is preparing to fly to Kazakhstan after the first units arrived yesterday. 63/
tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/1…
Video of paratroopers from the VDV's 31st Air Assault Brigade loading onto Il-76 transport aircraft in Ulyanovsk with BMD-4M armored vehicles, K-53949 Typhoon-K MRAPs (possibly from the 3rd Spetsnaz Brigade), KamAZ trucks, and Rys vehicles. 64/
tvzvezda.ru/news/20221799-…
The Russian MoD said more than 70 Il-76 and 5 An-124 transport aircraft are being used to deliver Russian forces to Kazakhstan around the clock. That is a really huge share of its transport aviation if true, and could transfer a large force quickly. 65/
ria.ru/20220107/mirot…
The Commander of the VDV, Colonel General Andrei Serdyukov, has been appointed the commander of CSTO forces in Kazakhstan. No surprise given the heavy role played by the VDV. 66/
tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/1… Image
67/
Tajikistan’s peacekeeping contingent loading onto aircraft before heading to Kazakhstan. 68/
t.me/rian_ru/138364
Another video of paratroopers with AK-12 rifles loading onto Il-76 and An-124 transport aircraft. The Russian MoD said 12 Il-76 and An-124 are currently flying CSTO troops to Kazakhstan. 69/
t.me/rian_ru/138363
Video of Armenian soldiers loading onto a Russian Il-76MD transport aircraft headed to Kazakhstan. 70/
t.me/rian_ru/138354
Video of nine Il-76 transport aircraft landing at the Almaty Airport. 71/
t.me/rian_ru/138339
Video of a BTR-82 vehicle loading onto a transport aircraft at Chkalovsky airfield. 72/
t.me/zvezdanews/648…
Video of Belarusian paratroopers from the 103rd Airborne Brigade arriving in the Zhetygen Airport. 73/
m.tvzvezda.ru/news/202217134…
Igor Konashenkov announced that the Almaty Airport was taken under control by CSTO forces with the aid of Kazakhstan security services. He also announced that VDV commander Colonel General Andrey Serdyukov will command CSTO forces in Kazakhstan. 74/
tvzvezda.ru/news/202217103…
Russian servicemen arriving in Almaty Airport with peacekeeping brassards. 75/
t.me/milinfolive/74…
76/
Kazakhstan's President Tokayev said CSTO forces would mainly be used to protect strategic facilities, and the Russian MoD said CSTO forces will not be involved in attempts at restoring order. 77/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
CSTO spokesman Vladimir Zainetdinov said the CSTO force deployed to Kazakhstan will be up to 2,500 servicemembers, but said that could be increased if required. 78/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
Video of the Kyrgyz forces loading onto aircraft headed to Kazakhstan. 79/
t.me/rian_ru/138395
80/
Video of equipment and paratroopers from the VDV’s 331st Airborne Regiment (98th Airborne Division) being loaded onto transport aircraft in Ivanovo, including BMD-2, Infauna EW, R-142DA command post, and trucks. 81/
t.me/rian_ru/138471
RB-531BE Infauna EW system on a K1Sh1 chassis. 82/
t.me/rian_ru/138471 ImageImageImageImage
Paratroopers from the 31st Air Assault Division and 45th Spetsnaz Brigade arriving in the Zhetygen and Almaty airports with BTR-82A and Tigr-M SpN with Arbalet-DM remote operated weapon systems. 83/
t.me/rian_ru/138476
The end of the video appears to show Russian paratroopers moving beyond the airports. 84/
t.me/rian_ru/138476
BMD-4M armored airborne vehicles from the VDV’s 31st Air Assault Brigade being loaded onto An-124 in Ulyanovsk. 85/
t.me/zvezdanews/648…
The военный осведомитель page says paratroopers from the 98th Airborne Division is at the Nursultan Airport, General Staff building, and television center.
45th Spesnaz Brigade at the Almaty Airport, Air Defense HQ, Nursultan, 602nd base, and Shymkent. 86/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=… Image
31st Air Assault Brigade at Ust-Kamenogorsk and Kazatomprom.
SSO Senezh at the Presidential Palace, National Bank, and National Security Committee.
414th Naval Infantry Battalion (part of the 177th NI Regiment) at the port of Aktau.
Note, this isn't confirmed.
87/
Armenian SOF arriving at the Almaty Airport. 88/
t.me/rt_russian/876…
Belarusian paratroopers arriving at the Zhetigen airport in Kazakhstan. 89/
Video of Russian servicemen arriving at the Zhetigen airport, including Tigr-M SpN with Arbalet-DM remote operated weapon systems from the 45th Spetsnaz Brigade. 90/
Russian spetsnaz, presumably from the 45th Spetsnaz Brigade, rehearsing at the Almaty Airport. 91/
t.me/msgazdiev/573
Armenian SOF at the Almaty Airport. 92/
t.me/msgazdiev/569 ImageImageImage
Russian servicemen at the Almaty Airport. 93/
t.me/msgazdiev/570
Video of Armenian and Russian troops at the Almaty Airport. 94/
t.me/rt_russian/876…
95/
K-53949 Typhoon-K MRAPs, possibly from the GRU/GU's 3rd Spetsnaz Brigade, and Tigr-M SpN with an Arbalet-DM, likely from the VDV's 45th Spetsnaz Brigade. Also a UAV Patriot. 96/ Image
Paratroopers from the VDV's 31st Air Assault Brigade being transferred from Ulyanovsk to Kazakhstan. 97/
Video of paratroopers and BMD-2 from the 98th Airborne Division, likely the 331st Airborne Regiment, being transferred from Ivanovo to Kazakhstan. 98/
One of Russia's modernized Il-76MD-90A transport aircraft (RF-78661) is also moving troops from Ulyanovsk to Kazakhstan. 99/
100/
More equipment from the 98th Airborne Division, including BMD-2. 101/
Russian paratroopers conducting rehearsals at the Almaty Airport. 102/
tvzvezda.ru/news/202218185…
103/
104/
Another BTR-82 headed to Kazakhstan. It looks as though the flights are going 24 hours a day. 105/
t.me/rian_ru/138621
106/
Servicemen from the VDV's 98th Airborne Division (likely 331st Airborne Regiment) loading BMD-2, and from the 45th Spetsnaz Brigade with Tigr-M with Arbalet-DM loading onto Il-76 transport aircraft headed to Kazakhstan. 107/
Video of members of the VDV's 45th Spetsnaz Brigade leaving the Almaty Airport to secure infrastructure in Kazakhstan with Tigr-M SpN, KamAZ trucks, and BTR-82 vehicles. 108/
Ryazan is the home of the VDV's command school but also the 137th Airborne Regiment. Are these BMD-4M and BTR-MDM vehicles related to the buildup near Ukraine, the operation in Kazakhstan, or neither? 109/
110/
A battalion worth of BMD-2 and supporting trucks. 111/
Video from yesterday showing Russian citizens being evacuated from Almaty. Looks as though they were escorted by members of the VDV's 45th Spetsnaz Brigade. 112/
Video of an An-124 heavy transport aircraft carrying 7 BMD-2 airborne armored vehicles and a KamAZ truck. 113/
tvzvezda.ru/news/202219831…
The single An-124 heavy transport aircraft carried 7 BMD-2 airborne armored vehicles from the 98th Airborne Division and a KamAZ truck. 114/
tvzvezda.ru/news/202219831… Image
Sergei Ryabkov said Russia will not discuss the situation in Kazakhstan with US negotiators, "This topic does not concern them at all." 115/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
The Russian Foreign Ministry said 1,600 Russian citizens have requested help from the Russian government to leave Kazakhstan. They said they have conducted 7 flights so far and evacuated 614 people. 116/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
Andrei Serdyukov said CSTO troops have completed their deployment and are protecting important military and state facilities in Kazakhstan. He said they will remain until the situation in the country is completely stabilized. 117/
tvzvezda.ru/news/202219145…
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
President Tokayev's press secretary suggested that the CSTO troops will only remain in Kazakhstan for one week. 118/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
The CSTO said an operational group headed by the Deputy Chief of the CSTO Joint Staff has been deployed to Kazakhstan. 119/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that 13 flights Russian Air Force flights evacuated 1,422 people from Almaty today. 120/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
Video of Russian paratroopers and equipment at the Almaty Airport, including KamAZ trucks, BMD-4M, BTR-MDM, K-53949 Typhoon-K MRAPs, Tigr-M SpN, BTR-82, UAZ Patriot, and a Kazakh Arlan MRAP. 121/
Zvezda video report showing members of the VDV's 45th Spetsnaz Brigade escorting Russian citizens to the Almaty Airport. 122/
tvzvezda.ru/news/202219183…
Another flight of Russian citizens arriving at Chkalovsky airfield in Moscow from Kazakhstan. 123/
t.me/zvezdanews/649…
Belarusian paratroopers from the 103rd Airborne Brigade are protecting the artillery arsenal in Kapchagay and the Zhetigen Airport. 124/
mil.by/ru/news/143098/ ImageImageImageImage
Video of Belarusian paratroopers making their way to secure infrastructure sites in Kazakhstan. The commander of Belarusian forces in Kazakhstan appears to be Colonel Sergei Andreev, the deputy commander of Belarus' SSO. 125/
Video of Russian troops arriving at the Baikonur Cosmodrome. 126/
t.me/milinfolive/74…
It seems China wanted more coordination with Russia over the situation in Kazakhstan. 127/
globaltimes.cn/page/202201/12… ImageImage
Members of Kyrgyzstan’s 25th “Skorpion” Spetsnaz Brigade in Almaty. 128/
t.me/ChDambiev/12747
The Russian MoD said they've evacuated 1,461 Russian citizens from Kazakhstan. 129/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
Video of Russian paratroopers at Almaty Airport with an Orlan-10 and Vintorez rifle. 130/
"China supports Russian-led forces deployed to Kazakhstan to help quell unrest, China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov late on Monday." 131/
reuters.com/world/asia-pac…
132/
Photos of Russian servicemen in Almaty, presumably from the 45th Spetsnaz Brigade with Spartanets-3 and LShZ1+ helmets, AK-12 rifles, and Tigr-M SpN with Arbalet-DM. Note, even elite Russian troops lack optics on their rifles. 133/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=… ImageImageImageImage
More Russian paratroopers in Almaty. Looks like some are wearing Lowa boots. (h/t @AbraxasSpa) 134/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=… ImageImageImageImage
Tens of Il-76 aircraft at the Almaty Airport. Not sure what day. 135/
t.me/milinfolive/74…
Video of Belarusian paratroopers at the Zhetigen Airport. 136/
t.me/rian_ru/139022
Belarusian paratroopers at the Zhetigen Airport. 137/
t.me/msgazdiev/594 ImageImageImageImage
Tajik troops guarding a power plant in Almaty. 138/
t.me/msgazdiev/600 ImageImageImage
Kyrgyz servicemen from the 25th “Skorpion” Spetsnaz Brigade guarding the main power plant in Almaty. 138/
t.me/msgazdiev/597
Russian troops guarding a telecommunications station in Almaty. 139/
t.me/msgazdiev/606
Armenian troops are guarding Almaty’s main bakery. 140/
t.me/msgazdiev/607 ImageImageImageImage
More photos of Armenian troops in Almaty. 141/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=… ImageImageImageImage
The commander of CSTO forces in Kazakhstan, Andrei Serdyukov, said the prompt deployment of CSTO forces allowed Kazakhstan's security services to stabilize the situation. 142/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
Serdyukov said they are developing plans for transfering security of facilities from peacekeepers to Kazakhstan's security services. He said CSTO forces would leave once they completed their mission. 142/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
Shoigu said CSTO forces would remain until the situation has completely stabilized, and that such a decision would be made by Kazakhstan's leadership. 143/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
President Tokayev said Kazakhstani authorities could have lost control of Almaty and the country without the deployment of CSTO forces. 144/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
President Tokayev said CSTO forces have achieved their main mission and would begin a phased withdrawal in two days. 145/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
Video of spetsnaz from the VDV's 45th Spetsnaz Brigade guarding a telecommunications station in Almaty and Tajik soldiers guarding the main power plant in Almaty. 146/
tvzvezda.ru/news/202211113…
Photos of Tajik soldiers in Almaty. 147/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=… ImageImageImageImage
Kyrgyz Spetsnaz in Almaty. 148/
t.me/milinfolive/74…
Video of servicemen from the VDV's 45th Spetsnaz Brigade guarding a telecommunications station in Almaty and other paratroopers guarding the Almaty Airport. 149/
Video of troops from Tajikistan and Armenia guarding facilities in Almaty. 150/
The CSTO said its forces are guarding guard airfields, bread factories, power plants, 3 television centers, water pumping stations, military warehouses, arsenals and other important government, military, and socially significant facilities. 151/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
CSTO press secretary Vladimir Zainetdinov said the withdrawal of CSTO forces from Kazakhstan will begin tomorrow and will be completed in 10 days. 152/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
President Tokayev said the CSTO's peacekeeping mission has been completed. 153/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
Members of the VDV's 45th Spetsnaz Brigade guarding the telecommunications center in Almaty. 154/
мультимедиа.минобороны.рф/multimedia/pho… ImageImageImageImage
Russian, Tajik, and Armenian troops in Almaty. 155/
мультимедиа.минобороны.рф/multimedia/pho… ImageImageImageImage
Russian spetsnaz and Armenian troops in Almaty. 156/
мультимедиа.минобороны.рф/multimedia/pho… ImageImageImageImage
Armenian SOF in Almaty. 157/
t.me/ok_spn/16443 ImageImageImageImage
Armenian SOF in Almaty. 158/
t.me/ok_spn/16443 ImageImageImageImage
159/
160/
The CSTO forces have reportedly begun their withdrawal. 161/
Ceremony led by Colonel-General Serdyukov for the completion of the CSTO peacekeeping mission in Kazakhstan. 162/
t.me/zvezdanews/653…
Video of paratroopers from the 98th Airborne Division returning to Ivanovo. 163/
tvzvezda.ru/news/202211318…
Paratroopers and BMD-2 from the 98th Airborne Division loading onto to Il-76 aircraft at the Almaty Airport. 164/
t.me/zvezdanews/654…
Deputy Commander of the VDV, Lieutenant General Anatoly Kontsevoy, is also in Kazakhstan. 165/
instagram.com/russian_sof/p/… Image
Paratroopers from the 98th Airborne Division returning to Ivanovo. 166/
tvzvezda.ru/news/202211320…
Shoigu said the CSTO forces would complete their withdrawal on January 19th. 167/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
Russian paratroopers returning from Kazakhstan. 168/
t.me/Ugolok_Sitha/3…
The Russian MoD said 10 aircraft are carrying Belarusian troops from Kazakhstan to Minsk. 169/
iz.ru/1276954/2022-0…
Video of Belarusian is paratroopers and a BTR-80 being loaded onto an Il-76 aircraft headed back to Minsk. 170/
t.me/zvezdanews/654…
Russian paratroopers and equipment returning to Russia. 171/
t.me/zvezdanews/654…
Video of Kyrgyzstan’s 25th Spetsnaz Brigade returning to Kyrgyzstan. 172/
t.me/ChDambiev/12813
Soldiers from Tajikistan headed home from Kazakhstan. 173/
Soldiers from Kyrgyzstan departing Almaty. 174/
Armenian troops flying home from Kazakhstan. 175/
Paratroopers from the VDV's 331st Airborne Regiment preparing to return to Kostroma. 176/
tvzvezda.ru/news/202211413…
Belarusian paratroopers landing in Minsk from Kazakhstan. 177/
tvzvezda.ru/news/202211417…
Soldiers from Tajikistan returning to Dushanbe after their deployment to Kazakhstan. 178/
tvzvezda.ru/news/202211416…
Servicemen from Kyrgyzstan's 25th Skorpion Spetsnaz Brigade returning after their deployment to Kazakhstan. 179/
tvzvezda.ru/news/202211416…
After initially flying out the 331st Airborne Regiment to Ivanovo, Russia is now returning units from Kazakhstan to Chkalovsky Airfield in Moscow, possibly from the 45th Spetsnaz Brigade. 180/
tvzvezda.ru/news/202211510…
Another video of Russian paratroopers and equipment returning from Kazakhstan. The Russian MoD said 18 Il-76 and 2 An-124 flights brought Russian equipment back to the Chkalovsky Airfield outside Moscow today. 181/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
K-53949 Typhoon-K MRAPs and BMD-4M loading onto Il-76 aircraft at the Almaty Airport bound for Ulyanovsk from the VDV's 31st Air Assault Brigade and possibly the GRU/GU's Spetsnaz Brigade. 182/
More footage of equipment from the VDV's 31st Air Assault Brigade returning to Ulyanovsk. 183/
tvzvezda.ru/news/202211717…
Members of the VDV's 45th Spetsnaz Brigade returning to Chkalovsky Airfield. 184/
tvzvezda.ru/news/202211795…
The Russian MoD said 14 Il-76 aircraft have returned to Chkalovsky Airfield from Kazakhstan today. 185/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
Video of more equipment returning from Kazakhstan. They said they loaded 6 BMD-4M vehicles onto a single An-124 transport aircraft. 186/
tvzvezda.ru/news/202211893…
Video of Colonel General Serdyukov, the commander of the CSTO’s peacekeeping operation in Kazakhstan, departing from Almaty Airport. This was reportedly the last flight with CSTO forces, all of whom have now left Kazakhstan. 187/
t.me/zvezdanews/658…

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More from @RALee85

Rob Lee Profile picture
Mar 7
Video of a counter-UAV net on the road near Bakhmut and a partially constructed Ukrainian net over a road in Kursk oblast.
t.me/infomil_live/1…
t.me/zogrussia1/921
2/
A road in Sumy oblast with a counter-UAV net. 3/
t.me/TyskNIP/15481
Read 22 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Jan 19
“When North Korean troops first appeared on the battlefield last month, Ukrainian soldiers were stunned by how they moved in large groups and did not even attempt to hide from Ukrainian drones. Many were easily killed in those initial waves, but in ensuing battles, the new arrivals proved to be combat-ready, physically fit and skilled marksmen, the Ukrainians said…

But the North Koreans also fought fiercely and aggressively, demonstrating advanced war tactics…

Some North Korean troops, the documents said, repeatedly rushed to rescue their fellow wounded soldiers despite the risks of enemy attacks, causing further casualties.”
washingtonpost.com/world/2025/01/…
@siobhan_ogrady @serhiikorolchuk @EdR4mImage
"Used in infantry attacks and largely unsupported by armored vehicles or artillery, the North Koreans have appeared in videos shot from Ukrainian drones—cut down as they trek across barren fields. Ukrainian soldiers say they have been impressed by the North Koreans’ willingness to press forward even as their comrades perish alongside them...

North Korean troops have also chosen death over capture, Ukrainian soldiers say, carrying a grenade with which to blow themselves up or, in rare cases, a shiv with which to cut their arteries. One North Korean detained by Ukrainians was taken alive before but, heavily wounded, he died during transportation, according to Ukrainian officials.

'Their motivation is at a high level,' said Green. 'Their physical training is at a high level, and their readiness to die is the same.'"
@JaneLytv @DaslYoon
wsj.com/world/inside-a…Image
"The North Korean soldiers fighting for Moscow in Russia’s Kursk region are assigned their own patches of land to assault. Unlike their Russian counterparts, they advance with almost no armored vehicles in support.

When they attack, they do not pause to regroup or retreat, as the Russians often do when they start taking heavy losses, Ukrainian soldiers and American officials say. Instead, they move under heavy fire across fields strewed with mines and will send in a wave of 40 or more troops.

If they seize a position, they do not try to secure it. They leave that to Russian reinforcements, while they drop back and prepare for another assault...

[North Korean] Reinforcements are expected 'within the next two months,' according to one senior U.S. defense official...

The North Korean forces deployed to Ukraine included around 500 officers and at least three generals, according to Ukrainian military intelligence.

The generals are posted at Russian command and control headquarters, U.S. defense officials said, and that is where the objectives are decided.

The commanders decide when they need artillery and how long to wait before ground forces maneuver, a senior U.S. defense official said. They synchronize with the troops in the field, so that the troops are not talking to their Russian counterparts, to try to reduce miscommunication.

Ukrainian soldiers fighting in Kursk said the North Korean tactics were costly but effective.

'The Koreans are starting to push the front lines, targeting less defended areas and wearing out our troops that way,' said Oleksii, the platoon commander...

Ukrainian soldiers said the North Koreans should not be underestimated.

'They are being tested, really tested,' said Andrii, the drone commander. They did not have combat experience, he said, but 'now they are here, gaining it, and they are becoming very strong.'”
@MarcSantoraNYT @helenecooper
nytimes.com/2025/01/22/wor…Image
Read 6 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Jan 14
Ukrainian Air Force technicians who service MiG-29 fighters say that they are being transferred to serve as infantry.
t.me/soniah_hub/8703 x.com/censor_net/sta…Image
Image
2/
150 aviation technicians were sent to the 152nd Jaeger Brigade in October-November and were ultimately attached to a different brigade. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Jan 5
A number of Russian channels say that Ukraine has began an offensive operation from near Sudzha towards Bolshoye Soldatskoye in Kursk oblast with armored vehicles. They say Ukrainian EW has been effective against their UAVs and that Ukrainian units cleared mines overnight.
t.me/rusich_army/19…
t.me/razvedosaa/122…
t.me/RVvoenkor/83908
t.me/milinfolive/13…Image
Image
Image
Image
Some Russian channels have been warning recently of a Ukrainian build up near Kursk and a potential offensive. Romanov warned that Ukraine would strike before January 7th. 2/
t.me/romanov_92/457…Image
Image
One channel says Ukrainian forces are attacking in the direction of Leonidovo, Pushkarnoe, and Bolshoye Soldatskoye, and using IMR engineering vehicles to clear mines. 3/
t.me/rusich_army/19…Image
Image
Read 20 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Sep 21, 2024
Russian channels say that Ukrainian UAVs targeted the ammunition depot in Tikhoretsk, Krasnodar Krai.




t.me/bazabazon/31447
t.me/astrapress/647…
t.me/astrapress/647…
t.me/astrapress/647…
t.me/mash/57808






Video of an explosion. 2/
t.me/astrapress/647…
3/
Read 4 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Sep 10, 2024
Video of an armored column with at least 8 tanks and armored vehicles from the Russian VDV's 51st Airborne Regiment assaulting Snagost in Kursk oblast. It appears Russia was able to get the armored force across the Seym River, despite Ukrainian strikes on the bridges. @Deepstate_UA says the situation has worsened on Ukraine's left flank in Kursk oblast.


t.me/infomil_live/9…
t.me/DniproOfficial…
t.me/DeepStateUA/20…
More likely that the advance was from Korenevo.
3/
 t.me/DeepStateUA/20…
Image
Read 10 tweets

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