Thread by @trygveolson

FAITH OR FEAR THREAD
How Big Lies, Conspiracy Theories, and Lozhnaya Informatsiya (False Information with a purpose) over a decade in the making led to events on January 6th. @JoeTrippi @stuartpstevens @LincolnWatchman @reedgalen @LincolnProject3 @TheRickWilson

January 6th can now be seen through the lens of 363 days of hindsight. Thus, I wanted to provide thoughts on how we got here & why it will get worse before it gets better. They are based on decades of work I have done worldwide in both democracies and autocracies.

What we witnessed came about from an extended period of Lies, Conspiracy Theories, & false information. These same informational tactics which led to violent extremism are still being deployed.

In fact, they are growing as more Americans succumb to them. Extremism on one side of a political spectrum becomes the rationalization for extremism on the other.

This @postpolls gets to the divide. As @danbalz @sfcpoll @emgusk point out, "1 year after the deadly attack on the U.S. Capitol, Republicans & Democrats are deeply divided over what happened…."

washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/…

The question we must ask is, why?

To truly understand what happened on January 6th (and why we are moving in the wrong direction a year later) you must begin by understanding the drivers of political extremism on a psychological level. It starts with psychological Distress.

Steps to Extremism – #1 PSYCHOLOGICAL DISTRESS
We seek answers to events or actions which are distressing -- that which causes fear. The fears may be real or imagined & we want leaders to provide answers. For example, the pandemic.

Steps to Extremism - #2 COGNITIVE SIMPLICITY
The 2nd step is the answers we accept. Complex problems have complex solutions. Yet we desire simple ones to things we don't understand.

When leaders provide them, we often accept them–we want to believe the solution is simple.

Steps to Extremism – Step #3 THE OVERCONFIDENCE EFFECT
The next step is overconfidence. This means a belief you have been enlightened with the solution. You understand through your ability to assess and the leaders (experts) you accept.

When people reach the point of being overconfident, "I am right" providing counter information is challenging – they are on the verge of extremism.

Steps to Extremism – Step #4 INTOLERANCE
The last step in becoming a political extremist is intolerance. They have 'found the answers to their Distress in simplistic answers (or leaders) and feel enlightened' about these "truths" (even if they are based on apparent untruths).

Those who disagree or challenge their answers are unenlightened. If they don't see the answers, the extremism becomes intolerant of them – they become enemies who must be defeated.

HOW FALSE INFORMATION WITH A PURPOSE -- LOZHNAYA INFORMATSIYA -- LEVERAGES THE LANGUAGE OF EXTREMISM.
Lozhnaya informatsiya is a term I first encountered while working in Eurasian countries – it is Russian for "false information with a purpose."

https://twitter.com/trygveolson/status/1439978075668819968

I use the term not to say Russians are the ones using it in the United States (although they do), but because of how accurately it describes the concept being used within our country today. It has five parts – each connecting to people becoming extremists.

LOZHNAYA INFORMATSIYA PART 1 – PLANT
The seeds of Psychological Distress are planted in the ground of the body politic. Psychological Distress comes in many forms, so plant as many seeds of Distress as possible. The key is to plant seeds and see which ones grow.

Such seeds know no ideological boundaries or limits. The key is sowing fear. In the case of the Big Lie leading to January 6th it took more than a decade.

LOZHNAYA INFORMATSIYA PART 2 – NOURISH
Some seeds of psychological distress sprout. Those which do must be nourished. This is done by creating as many narratives as possible.

LOZHNAYA INFORMATSIYA PART 3 – GROW
As simplistic answers take root (e.g. Trump won or we need an audit) you grow through overconfidence. The key is providing examples (even if it will later be proven false) to say "see this is actually occurring."

LOZHNAYA INFORMATSIYA PART 4 – BEAR FRUIT
Bearing Fruit is leveraging overconfidence to create division. It is saying "we know the obvious truths, & only fools (liberals, elites, RINOS) or any opposition must be confronted. It focuses on division.

LOZHNAYA INFORMATSIYA PART 5 – HARVEST
As the pool of extremists (overconfident & intolerant) is built, you harvest. The riot at Capitol was an example. A tipping point of extremism used in radicalization & violence to achieve overturning the elections.

We must realize the process started again on that day. A new field with new seeds to be grown. If you ask yourself why the problem has gotten worse, the events on 1.6 are now being used as seeds for more Lozhnaya Informatsiya. They are being nourished to foster more extremism.

Perhaps more troubling is Lozhnaya Informatsiya has become the accent of political discourse, particularly on the right. A perversion of conservatism similar to what we saw of Islam prior to 9/11. I believe @GWBush get this.

Ultimately, to defeat what we face, we must use engagement rules to confront such zero-sum, illiberal games. So here are my seven rules for engaging autocrats and illiberal forces based on my work against many of the world's most notorious ones.

https://twitter.com/trygveolson/status/1412577519627345921

Jan 6th will be a tipping point if we cannot admit the problem and use tactics to confront that which we face. Unfortunately, many are failing. Yet we leaders like @liz_cheney, @benniegthompson, or @adamkinzinger. Tomorrow and the days that follow we must rally around them.