Thread by @nash_rougvie

🧵 - Assessing potential striker options for Arsenal on non-goalscoring metrics. Are the big names really worth the money? #Arsenal #AFC

During Arsenal's recent run of success, Alexandre Lacazette has played a dynamic false 9 role, with higher prioritization on hold-up play, link-up in the final third, and effective pressing. If Arteta wants to stick with this system, these things need to be prioritized.

For this analysis, these were the metrics used:
-Expected Assists
-Progressive Passes
-Shot-Creating Actions
-Pass Attempts and Completion Rate
-Progressive Passes Received
-Pressures
-Tackles & Interceptions

For all vizes, each metric is relative to Alexandre Lacazette's per 90 performance. The black dotted line is the average of all metrics for the player in question. 36 players were analyzed - total ranking at the end.

1. Other Arsenal Players

Is Lacazette's replacement already in the squad? Here are how other potential center forwards in the squad stack up with Laca:

No massive improvements here, but some experimenting could reveal more...

2. The Big Money Links

These are the players that are given $50-$80 million price tags, and the ones with the best goal scoring records. However, the underlying numbers seem disappointing here.

So is Laca brilliant or are the big name players not worth the money? ...

3. Other Young, PL Options

This spread of players is generally better, but still underwhelming. Given the price tags that Watkins, Richarlison, and Calvert Lewin demand, it seems worth looking for better alternatives.

4. Ligue 1 Gems

Here we see some potentially standout options. Paqueta has started playing as a #9 for Lyon recently, and could potentially be a dangerous replacement for Laca. Yacine Adli and Amine Gouiri are young options that are already showing great quality.

5. Veteran Alternatives

While Arsenal's recent transfer policy heavily favors U-23 players, some older options look like immediate upgrades on Lacazette. Jota's recent usurping of the starting #9 role at Liverpool could potentially make Firmino available.

6. Other PL Options

Some other players in the Premier League look like promising potential options. None of Ihenacho, Jesus, and Greenwood are guaranteed starters for their respective teams, so could be tempted with a move (Greenwood especially is unlikely though).

7. Other Hidden Gems

Charles De Ketelaere is a brilliant young option blooming for Club Brugge this season. Oihan Sancet is an emerging talent for Athletic Club, and Guedes and Sorloth are realistic and more proven options.

8. The Underwhelming Alternatives

Nmecha, Adeyemi, Ekitike, Burkardt, Leao, and Kalimuendo all proved to be relatively underwhelming when compared to some of the other options mentioned.

Let's see how they compared to the rest...

Complete Ranking:

1. Lucas Paqueta - 1.65 (Laca = 1)
2. Luis Muriel - 1.61
3. Yacine Adli - 1.53
4. Roberto Firmino - 1.39
5. Gerard Moreno - 1.24
6. Antoine Greizmann - 1.20
T-7. Charles De Ketelaere - 1.19
T-7. Alasanne Plea - 1.19
T-7. Goncalo Guedes - 1.19 ...

T-10. Kelechi Ihenacho - 1.14
T-10. Bukayo Saka - 1.14
12. Amine Gouiri - 1.12
13. Gabriel Jesus - 1.1
T-14. Oihan Sancet - 1.09
T-14. Gabriel Martinelli - 1.09
16. Nicolas Pepe - 1.08
17. Alexander Sorloth - 1.03
18. Emile Smith-Rowe - 1.01
19. Alexandre Lacazette - 1.00 ...

20. Mason Greenwood - 0.95
21. Josh Sargent - 0.94
T-22. Lucas Nmecha - 0.91
T-22. Karim Adeyemi - 0.91
T-22. Hugo Ekitike - 0.91
25. Jonathan David - 0.89
T-26. Jonathan Burkardt - 0.88
T-26. Ivan Toney - 0.88

Where are the big names?

T-28. Rafael Leao - 0.86
T-28. Ollie Watkins - 0.86
T-28. Richarlison - 0.86
T-31. Mohamed Bayo - 0.83
T-31. Arnaud Kalimuendo 0.83

Still no Vlahovic, Isak, or Schick...

Finally...

33. Patrick Schick - 0.70
34. Alexander Isak - 0.69
35. Dusan Vlahovic - 0.68
36. Dominic Calvert Lewin - 0.66

Let's discuss.

This formula is far from gospel. However, it reveals a lot about how the quality of different players are perceived, particularly in media.

Look at this title from an ESPN FC video for example:

All of those players are elite goalscorers who would fit well at teams that play with a traditional 9, but the fact of the matter is that Arsenal do not need a player whose greatest trait is their goalscoring.

Looking even at surface-level data in other areas, it is easy to see how one-dimensional these players are. Vlahovic's only truly great strengths are his goalscoring and aerial ability - neither of which are of massive importance for this particular role.

So, who should Arsenal sign?

So far, the U-23 transfer policy is working very well, so let's roughly stick to that. Long-term investments seem very important to Arsenal right now, so while players like Muriel and Gerard Moreno would be brilliant, we'll overlook them for this.

Lucas Paqueta is a standout option for a number of reasons.

For one, his versatility makes him a very useful tool. Not only would he make a strong false 9, but he could address Arsenal's need for a left-sided central midfielder (extended thread on this coming soon)...

At 24, Paqueta is very polished but still has plenty of prime years ahead of him. He is a brilliant progressor of the ball, and he is very involved in play.

Given the depth of midfield talent Lyon has, Paqueta is relativley expendable. He'd cost ~$45 million, but is worth it.

Personally, I am very keen on Charles De Ketelaere. He has been one of the best player in all of the Belgian League at just the age of 20, and showed his quality in one of the most difficult CL groups a team like Brugge could have.

Versatile, hard-working, confident on the ball, and amongst the goals, Charles De Ketelaere would be a bargain at roughly half the price of Dusan Vlahovic or Dominic Calvert Lewin. He has perhaps the highest ceiling of all of these players, and fits the system brilliantly.

Yacine Adli is another brilliant player that has been on Arsenal's watchlist for a while now. He may not fit the role specifically, as he has never played as a False 9, but is young enough to mold into a different role. His talent may be too great to pass up.

Amine Gouiri is a very versatile player who, like Paqueta, could fill a number of roles in a number of systems for Arsenal. He has been one of the best players in Ligue 1 this season, and should be considered heavily.

Finally, Oihan Sancet is a player emerging at Athletic Club who could prove to be an absolute gem. By far the cheapest option, if the coaching is good enough, I could see Sancet flourishing in this Arsenal system, although his true upside is yet to be seen, so it could be risky.

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