Thread by @nash_rougvie

🧵 - Assessing potential midfield transfer targets for Arsenal. Which players live up to the hype and will fit our new system best? #Arsenal #AFC

To preface, this thread will focus on adding a left-sided midfielder, in accordance to our recent shift away from a double to a single pivot. Over the past ~month, Arsenal's midfielders each occupy a single, distinct channel. Our most pressing need is for a player on the left.

Granit Xhaka has struggled with some of the responsibilities of this new role, looking less confident in possession and in tight spaces when further up the pitch, limiting our ability to progress on the left side. We need a young understudy to eventually fill this role.

So, what do we need in a long-term replacement?
- Increased goal threat + creativity
- Dynamic ball progression
- Effective pressing and ball winning

Here are the metrics used for this assessment:
- Non-penalty xG+xA
- Shot-creating actions
- Progressive passes + carries
- Pass completion
- Pressures
- Tackles + Interceptions

Unlike with the striker thread, we do not currently have a player who matches what we need in this position very well, so the scouted players will be compared to an average of 4 Arsenal midfielders with a diverse array of roles. Here they are, compared to their average:

All metrics are per 90 and sourced from FBRef. The black dotted line show's the player's average across all metrics, with the value labeled. The values are relative to the aforementioned AFC average, which = 1.

41 players scouted, let's dive in!

1. Premier League Alternatives:

- Mwepu could fit this role well, likely not available in January though.
- Bissouma may not fit this particular role well, but could be more fit for a single pivot - thread examining this coming soon.
- No obvious, available options.

2. La Liga:

- Merino would fit well, perhaps not young enough for Arsenal's transfer policy at 25.
- Toni Moya is a young, underrated option that could fit well.
- Players generally more well-rounded, perhaps not enough upside.

3. Bundesliga + Gravenberch

- Probably overlooked some players, might update later with more.
- Nkunku would be brilliant, very hard to get.
- Eduard Lowen is an under-the-radar player who is getable and could fit the system well.

4. Italy

- Fabian having a brilliant season, would be hard to pry away from a thin Napoli side.
- Long-time target Diawara does not necessarily fit this role well, will be revisited for single pivot role.

5. Juventus

- Oversaturated in midfielder, players generally seem available.
- Bentancur and McKennie best fits.
- Arthur on loan would not be a bad signing, but doesn't provide enough goal threat.

6. Lyon

- Also oversaturated in midfield.
- Paqueta and Aouar are brilliant goal threats
- Guimaraes would be brilliant - very well-rounded.
- Caqueret will be revisited for single-pivot analysis.

7. Lille

- Sanches would be brilliant - improvement in almost all areas.
- Andre will be revisited for single-pivot analysis - brilliant defensively but little goal threat and average progression.

8. Monaco

- Sofiane Diop may be brilliant, although he would be a bit out of position as an 8.
- Tchouameni lacks goal threat, but will be re-examined for single-pivot as he is an elite ball-winner - would be near impossible to get regardless.

9. Rest of France

- Savanier is simply brilliant, would be a great short-term coup - only weakness is ball security.
- Rongier has been linked and would be good, but is probably too old for a long term option at 27.
- Hipster hype for Seko Fofana is somewhat justified.

Before I delve into the rankings, it's important to note that a lot of the top-rated player have values that are heavily inflated by their goal threat. The AFC average for npxG+xA was ~0.20, and player like Aouar, Paqueta, and Nkunku almost tripled that...

Most of these players are brilliant outside of their goal threat, but if I think it really skews their score I'll not them with an "*" in the rankings list. So, here they are, followed by the discussion of the best options:

RANKINGS:

1. Paqueta* - 1.61
2. Nkunku* - 1.53
3. Savanier - 1.38
4. Aouar* - 1.34
5. Guimaraes - 1.33
6. Sofiane Diop* - 1.26
7. Rongier - 1.24
T-8. Lowen - 1.21
T-8. Mwepu* - 1.21
10. Odegaard - 1.20

11. Caqueret - 1.19
12. Le Fee - 1.17
T-13. Tchouameni - 1.15
T-13. Gallagher - 1.15
15. Sanches - 1.13
16. Fabian - 1.11
T-17. Anguissa - 1.06
T-17. Andre - 1.07
T-19. Gravenberch - 1.05
T-19. Bentancur - 1.05
T-19. Merino - 1.05

T-22. Seko Fofana - 1.03
T-22. McKennie* - 1.03
T-22. Gilmour - 1.03
T-25. Rabiot - 1.01
T-25. De Jong* - 1.01
T-27. Xeka - 1.00
T-27. Janelt - 1.00
T-29. Youssouf Fofana - 0.99
T-29. Janelt - 0.99

T-31. Moya - 0.98
T-31. McGinn - 0.98
T-33. Sambi - 0.97
T-33. Llorente - 0.97
T-35. Pape Gueye - 0.96
T-35. Jordan - 0.96
T-37. Smith-Rowe - 0.95
T-37. Bissouma - 0.95
39. Soler - 0.94
40. Xhaka - 0.89
41. Diwara - 0.84

Discussion - who should Arsenal Sign?

In general, I feel that Arsenal is doing a much better job of pursuing players well-fit for this specific role than they are with strikers. Guimaraes on a permanent and/or Arthur on loan are both very sensible...

Lyon's ~$50 million price tag for Guimaraes is probably about right. If we have over $70 million to spend on Vlahovic, we should invest that money into a quality, long-term midfielder and find a striker in the summer.

Side note - If Arsenal are dead set on signing Vlahovic, I don't understand why they wouldn't wait for the summer. He will almost certainly regress is form and value, and it doesn't seem like any other club will be able to afford him/wants him bad enough in January.

If we are priced out of Bruno Guimaraes, we should seek high-ceiling, young, and affordable alternatives. Players like Carlos Soler and Rongier are close to/already in their prime, and their price tags may not be good enough value for the time they could give to the club.

(That is to say nothing of the fact that they will not apreciate as assets, which is important given how financially troubled Arsenal are)

So, who are some low-risk, potentially high reward players?
- Enzo Le Fee
- Toni Moya
- Eduard Lowen

Enzo Le Fee is the youngest at 21. His greatest strength is his pressing and ball-winning, but he also is a good shot creator in a struggling Lorient side. Given their relegation battle, it would make sense for Lorient to take some money for a prospect to improve immediately.

Toni Moya is 23 and plays for Alaves. He is an okay goal threat, a little sloppy on the ball, but a hard worker who presses frequently and wins the ball a good amount. He is rough around the edges, but could be elevated in a good team with better coaching.

Lowen is a weirder situation. He's on loan at Bocum from Hertha Berlin, so he may not be available this window. At 24, it seems odd that he has flown under the radar so much. He is a decent goal threat and brilliant presser, but struggles in possession in a poor Bochum side.

One thing all three of these players share is that they play for teams that are preforming poorly. In all cases, these players could be elevated by having better players around them in a system that encourages more expression and smarter movement.

I would love to see this as a test for Arteta - can he elevate the ability of an otherwise raw player through his system? That has always been a strength of managers like Klopp and Tuchel, and Arsenal will need to be able to do the same to compete with their teams.

If we want a more immediate impact in the form of a short term signing, it has to be Teji Savanier. He's one of the best players in the world right now and fits the system well, as he is one of the most well-rounded midfielders there is. He'd be hard to get, but worth it no doubt

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