Wow. Taken a while to digest the numbers on employment. Record 2021 gains of 6.4M jobs. December only 199k but more reflective of inability of employers to find workers than weak demand. Unem plummeted to pandemic low of 3.9%;wages, esp for low paid worker soared.
Sadly, we are seeing all the signs of a tight labor market while we are still 3.4M short of February 2020 peak. Employers need to deal with hurdles to reemployment as they search for workers. The pandemic has constrained the supply of workers while juicing demand.
Hispanic & Black women drove participation in the labor market but it is still well below prepandemic levels. Hurdles to job seeking inc childcare, care for those sick, long COVID, retirements, ⬇️ in immigration, mobility/commute costs (jobs now located outside of urban areas)
Good news is that those forced to work part time for economic reasons fell. Bad news is that those working multiple jobs rose, reflecting erosion higher prices having on wages, despite wage gains.
Affirms @federalreserve pivot to worry ab inflation over employment.
Affirms @federalreserve pivot to worry ab inflation over employment.
Omicron could push payroll employment negative in January, depending on how many venues forced to close due to surge in I’ll workers. This would hit those low wage workers hardest.
First time seen a variant with major disruptions to ability to work without pandemic aid.
First time seen a variant with major disruptions to ability to work without pandemic aid.
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