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Jean Fisch Profile picture
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7 Jan, 6 tweets, 1 min read
It seems that Germany, which is now also facing the Omicron wave, will impose a 2G Plus pass to bars and restaurants

"2G" = only vaccinated and recovered
"Plus" = a negative test is needed in addition
Quick add-on which I missed: Boostered are exempted from the additional test
This hybrid approach is consistent with Germany's approach regarding passes which made sure that similar relative risks are treated equally

Let me explain

1/
If a booster protects against infection with 75% and 2-dose / prior infection only with 30-40%, a booster reduces one's relative risk by 60% vs. 2 doses

2/
A double-vaxed or recovered person can reach the same reduction of his relative risk by presenting a recent negative rapid test

Why? Because a negative has a sensitivity (risk of false negatives) of about 50-80%

3/
This equal treatment is important because the German constitutional court had insisted that there cannot be a discrimination of people with a same relative risk level (in this case transmission)

This is what this approach "2G+ with test exemption for boostered" will maintain

4/

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More from @Jean__Fisch

Jean Fisch Profile picture
7 Jan
Covid in 🇫🇷: Paris posted a massive 108,000 cases last Monday (by specimen date). That would be
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 500k
🇧🇪 100k
🇩🇪 700k

But cases don't matter so let's look at admissions

1/
Admissions are a smaller proportion of cases, but in absolute terms they are now at the level of previous waves

France only provides admissions "with covid" so an unknown part of those admissions are bound to be "only" incidental

2/
Once again, this huge increase in hospitalizations in Paris highlights two things

a) the need to get figures "for" covid next to those "with" covid

b) that a very large number times a small number can still be sizeaeble number ...

3/
Read 4 tweets
Jean Fisch Profile picture
7 Jan
After my example of 🇩🇰 yesterday, @EricTopol shares the case of the 🇺🇸 which underlines again two points
A) the differences in immunity between countries can lead to very different levels of perceived mildness
B) a milder omicron can still create a lot of trouble

1/
@EricTopol Despite all the affirmations made, we still have a poor understanding of

/ The immunity wall in each country, i.e. who has what type of protection

/ How much Omicron evades this immunity

And these factors can lead to very different outcomes in different countries

2/
This does not mean that we may not see a very positive outcome from Omicron on 🇧🇪

It just means that it is very difficult to estimate this with confidence

On top, 🇧🇪 has a most contrasted vaccination coverage so Omicron may also pan out differently by region

3/
Read 5 tweets
Jean Fisch Profile picture
6 Jan
Covid in 🇩🇰: A tracing against the Autumn 2020 peak shows that hospitalization, ICU and deaths are at resp 75%, 50% and 35% of peak so far

1/
Hospitalizations, ICU and deaths clearly only track cases at a fraction of previous waves

BUT

Incidence is now at 5x that of the autumn 2020 peak

"a very large number times a small number can still yield a sizeable number"

2/
Daily cases in 🇩🇰 seem to cruise at 25k, i.e. so incidence is still going to grow for a while

... while shifting from the younger to the older age bands which are more at risk

3/
Read 4 tweets
Jean Fisch Profile picture
6 Jan
Covid in 🇧🇪: Admissions are still growing and I sincerely hope that the authorities had some sequencing done on admission cases to find out if they are related to Delta or Omicron

Why? Because any action decided by the #Codeco #overlegcomité will essentially depend on this

1/
What is interesting is that the admissions to cases ratio seems to have gone down over the last few days

Is is due to a change in admissions from Delta to Omicron?

Or is it simply an effect of cases shooting up in younger age bands first?

2/
On the cases front, things unfold as I expected

➡️High growth rate (also the Tu figure is likely to be around 28k)

➡️Record cases in BRU (4k exceeding the highest level so far by 33%!) and in Flag of Belgium overall (which I didn't anticipate)

3/
Read 6 tweets
Jean Fisch Profile picture
5 Jan
Sobbering chart about booster uptake in Brussels: Seven communes are below 20% three months into the campaign

It could well be that Omicron will be felt as more severe and not as milder here simply due to this lack of vaccination level⤵️
1/ 55% of the pop in BRU is double vaxed and probably another 25-30% has immunity from prior infection

So with Delta, 80-85% of the population in BRU benefitted from high protection
2/ With Omicron, only those boostered or had 2-doses AND were infection benefit from high protection

In communes with 20% booster uptake, at most 10-15% may have had 2-doses and went through an infection
Read 5 tweets
Jean Fisch Profile picture
5 Jan
Covid in 🇧🇪: Monday's figs under the spell of growth

➡️likely ~ 24k cases (under cautious assumptions) with almost certainly a daily case record in Brussels (and by a mile at >3.5k)

➡️More worryingly, admissions (FOR covid) hit 210 and continue to grow at 25% per week

1/ Image
What is worrying (and somewhat surprising given international experience) is that admissions still trail cases so far rather well at "Delta rates of severity" ... just seemingly quicker

2/ Image
Why is 🇧🇪 currently not seeing the same benefits of mildness as in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🇩🇰?

It could of course be that much of the admissions are still from Delta (and the fact that admissions trail cases as with Delta plays in favor of this hypothesis)

3/
Read 5 tweets

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