It’s not that it’s a spiral - one of my favorite types of graphs is the Condegram spiral. (Named after Mark Conde)
It’s used in astronomy/meteorology to show changes the Earths magnetic fields (Kp index) & is used to visualize space weather.
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Another awesome spiral graph - and one of the best examples of #dataviz ever IMO - is the Rose plots by Florence Nightingale.
These 1858 plots show the causes of mortality in Crimean war & make a compelling case that for improving conditions (particularly shelter in winter). 3/
I also really like circular or spiral dendrograms. Take a look at this beautiful 🌀 graphic showing the evolution/domestication of yeast.
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So if I like 🌀graphics so much why do I viscerally dislike this NYT COVID spiral? 5/
The beauty of Nightingale & Conde’s spirals is they show *granular* data. You can clearly see the sudden changes in deaths or solar activity.
The NYT graphic *averages* the data - this makes it look smooth but it also makes the surges in cases more subtle & harder to see. 6/
Another problem is how the NYT graphic plots cases: above & below the spiral.
Compare to the Condegram, which only goes above the spiral.
Humans are better at perceiving height than width. Just look at these two lines of identical length. Which case is easier to discern? 7/
To illustrate this point: Compare the NYT COVID spiral to the same data presented linearly.
Is it obvious that the green🟩line is more than twice as wide as the blue 🟦 line? 8/
Bottom line: this plot from the NYT distorts the data through unnecessary smoothing & plotting on both the inside & outside of the spiral. This has the effect of making it hard to see the true increase in cases. A missed #dataviz opportunity.
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As a bonus - here are few more of my favorite spiral #dataviz:
A 1850 plot by William Farr showing a (spurious) relationship between temperature & cholera cases in London. Correlation doesn't equal causation but it's still a compelling spiral graphic.
Not a spiral but another of my all time favorite ID dataviz examples: a plot showing polio cases in the US from 1931 to 1955.
Look how it combines granular data from each state/each week, along with monthly averages, and a heatmap for emphasis. 😍
Shortly before 3am on June 4, 1993, a mechanic at Miami airport looked in the wheel well of a DC-8 cargo jet from Bogotá. He saw the body of a teenager, curled in a ball, wearing only a t-shirt and shorts and frozen like an "ice cube."
The first paramedic pronounced him dead. The second found a weak pulse.
Somehow he had just survived 5 hours at 35,000 feet without heat or air pressure.
This should have killed him three different ways.
A🧵& blog post on how he survived.
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At 35,000 ft, there are three simultaneous killers:
🫁 Hypoxia: PO₂ is ~37 mmHg, well below the consciousness threshold of ~60 mmHg. Most peopple lose consciousness is 15-30 seconds. Even fully acclimatized Everest summiteers (at 29,000) survive only by driving PaCO₂ to ~8 mmHg through maximal hyperventilation.
🥶 Hypothermia: Ambient temp is –55°C. Accidental hypothermia causes fatal arrhythmia below ~28°C core temp. The coldest recorded accidental hypothermia survivor (13.7°C) lived only because of ECMO.
💥 DCS: Barometric pressure 179 mmHg (23% of sea level). The risk of decompression sickness and nitrogen gas embolism approaches 100% above 30,000 ft without a pressure suit.
No reasonable physiologist, handed these parameters, would predict survival. Yet somehow a 17 year old stow-away survived all three.
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The key is that hypothermia and hypoxia are mutually protective. The mechanism:
1️⃣ Hypoxia disables the thermostat
The preoptic anterior hypothalamus is exquisitely sensitive to hypoxia. As PaO₂ falls during ascent, it loses the ability to defend core temperature. The body becomes poikilothermic: temperature tracks the environment and the stow-away gets cold without shivering.
2️⃣ Hypothermia suppresses VO₂
The Q10 for brain CMRO₂ is 2.2. By the time core temp hits ~27°C (threshold for unconsciousness), brain O₂ consumption is ~45% of baseline. Demand meets the catastrophically low supply.
Cardiac surgeons exploit this in deep hypothermic circulatory arrest (DHCA), cooling the brain to 15-18°C to permit operating on a bloodless field.
The stowaway essentially did this to himself!
Lots of news articles reporting "Smartphone use on the toilet increases risk of hemorrhoids" citing a small single center study.
Great headlines but also a textbook example of *reverse causation* - a common methodological flaw in observational studies
A 🧵
Reverse causation occurs when we flip the arrow of cause→effect.
Protopathic bias is a subtype: An exposure (often a treatment/behavior) is started because early symptoms are already present, making it look like the exposure caused the outcome.
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A common example of reverse causation/protopathic bias is increased inhaler use --> increased risk of asthma hospitalization.
Did the inhaler use cause the hospitalization?
No! The person was developing symptoms which is why they were using the inhaler...
Well designed RCT shows patients randomized to an exercise program had substantially improved survival after adjuvant chemotherapy for colon cancer.
- 5 yr disease-free survival 80.3% vs
73.9% (HR 0.72)
- 8 yr overall survival 90.3% vs 83.2% (HR 0.63)
This is groundbreaking! 1/
Some deets on the CHALLENGE trial
A 55 center trial done over 15 years (2009-2024) that randomized n=889 people with resected colon cancer after adjuvant chemotherapy to either:
- participate in a structured exercise program
- or to receive health-education materials alone
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The intervention was pretty comprehensive:
Personal activity consultant (PACs) - essentially trainers - got to know the participant 1:1, introduced them to the gym and came up with personalized activity goals
Regular every 2 week sessions helped participants reach the goals
Tragic news today about former president Biden's prostate cancer diagnosis. I wish him well.
As someone who follows presidential health reporting, I noticed something odd: unlike his predecessors, Biden's physician's never reported PSA.
How to interpret this absence? A🧵 1/
There are two possibilities:
1️⃣ Biden’s PSA was never checked
2️⃣ Biden’s PSA was checked but it wasn't reported
Strictly speaking, not checking PSA could be a medically correct option. Whether or not to test PSA is a complex question and is not the topic of this thread.
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Like many VIPs, presidents tend to have excessive testing that is not always strictly evidence-based.
For example, Bush 43 had an exercise treadmill test and a TB test for no apparent reason.
In honor of #MayThe4thBeWithYou let's consider the most difficult airways in the Star Wars universe:
1. Darth Vader
Species: human
Vader presents several challenges: Vent dependent at baseline, airway burns from Mustafar, limited neck mobility.
Discuss GOC before saving him
2. Fodesinbeed Annodue
Species: Trog
All airways require teamwork, but intubating Fodesinbeed Annodue's two heads really will require two operators.
Consider double simultaneous awake fiberoptic intubation
Be sure to consent both heads.
You will never find a more wretched hive of scum & challenging airways than Mos Eisley (except maybe at Jabba's)
3.Greedo
Species: Rodian
Micrognathia, posterior airway, no nasal intubation, green skin so no pulse ox
Approach: VL + bronchoscope. Intubate quickly (shoot first)