Yields are rising not from inflation, since that is already in the market. Yields are rising because of the govt’s issuance of more paper with less Federal Reserve intervention. Keep it simple!
The Dollar is going down with yields rising. Why? Anticipating an eventual slowdown in the economy due to falling financial markets and rising rates.
At the end of the day, a decline in financial markets or the economy may bring the Fed back around to increase QE.
What the global public is learning about inflation post covid is that hard assets can rise in value regardless of the economy. Example used cars, industrial metals, precious metals, consumer goods, etc
This could be laying the foundation of a toxic combination when global governments use fiscal or monetary policies the next go around. They may not be able to control where their currency flows to or even worst maintain the public’s overall confidence and trust.
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1/6Being in the markets since 1992, I have seen a lot. One thing I have learned is that prices can be dictated by events “at the margin” versus overall supply/demand. Large players understand this and use the knowledge to push order flow or price action.
2/6Case in point, the 2008 silver crash. The following article was used to provide this information. seekingalpha.com/article/94767-…
“the 2000 tonne increase in SLV inventory throughout 2008 amounted to about 7 percent of overall annual silver demand”
3/6One would ask how could the price drop from $21 to $12 over this time? The following data shows a flurry of redemptions in August of 2008 in SLV which heavily impacted the price. Other markets reacted similarly.
1/ The Silver Exchange for Physical premium has been staying unusually elevated, even as we have seen lighter physical retail volume from June. Signaling tightness in the 1000 oz bar market.The retail premiums have been coming down simply because retail inventory has been rising
2/ As the precious metals market continues to deleverage, these EFP premiums could be a sign of continued rising costs within the industry as investors in physical metal becomes more assertive?
3/ Basically, the cost to carry physical continues to impact larger financial players who traditionally made money off of spreads and financing. This lends credence to my argument, that physical investors (strong hands) can play a more dominant role in impacting
What is unallocated gold or silver?
There is no way to be sure how much available gold or silver there is for one simple reason. The unallocated positions held by account holders are not actual metal but liabilities. Here is the IMF’s understanding of unallocated gold.
“Account providers hold title to a reserve base of physical (allocated) gold and issue claims to account holders denominated in unallocated gold. The account holder does not hold title to physical gold
but instead holds an unsecured claim against the account provider, in effect a deposit with the account provider. The account holder does not have legal ownership of the physical gold but is an unsecured depositor. The account holder is a creditor
This is from the Perth Mint Agreement. Customers agreed to the following. Just because someone can not obtain the metal does not mean Perth Mint is in violation.
2.4 Unallocated Precious Metal shall be stored by Gold Corporation on the following terms: perthmint.com/img/Certificat…
(a) the Client shall own, as an owner in common with other Unallocated Precious Metal (PM)Clients, an
undivided interest in Gold Corporation’s pool of PM Metal maintained in unsegregated storage on a fungible basis without specific identification of the Client’s Unallocated PM;
(b) Gold Corporation may use all or part of the Client’s Unallocated PM solely to fund the
PM needs of Gold Corporations’ operations. Gold Corporation shall not short sell Client
Unallocated Precious Metal nor lend Client Unallocated Precious Metal to third parties where
control
1/For any fiduciary, institutional or individual investor considering precious metals and wants to understand the real structural risks between owning physical metals held directly vs ETFs in a brokerage account, this research is for you.
2/As manager of a physical gold and silver fund and the owner of a large Depository, I understand the nuances between price representation vs actual ownership of precious metals.
3/Although, investors use ETFs for price exposure, they will be shocked to understand that is all they own…the price for that moment.