Thread by @Chrisbilbo

NSW R_eff as of January 8th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.69 ± 0.07

Plus SIR model projection.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

NSW R_eff as of January 8th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.69 ± 0.07

Plus SIR model projection.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

R_eff in Greater Sydney vs rest of New South Wales:

Greater Sydney: R_eff = 1.85 ± 0.09
NSW excluding Greater Sydney: R_eff = 2.32 ± 0.16

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note region-specific data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

R_eff in LGAs of concern* vs the rest of NSW (*all of Penrith included):

LGAs of concern: R_eff = 1.99 ± 0.08
Rest of NSW: R_eff = 1.95 ± 0.11

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note LGA data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

The Hunter region: R_eff = 2.21 ± 0.26

Illawarra region: R_eff = 2.80 ± 0.27

Western New South Wales: R_eff = 3.66 ± 0.56

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note region-specific data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

Cases in NSW if the current trend continues:

day cases 68% range
Sun: 43623 40364—46933
Mon: 45969 42339—49657
Tue: 47790 43879—51777
Wed: 48987 44846—53184
Thu: 49444 45214—53748
Fri: 49201 44969—53503
Sat: 48269 44101—52427

Doubling time is 6.6 days.