But is it really true that the world is unknowable?
Humanity's success says "no". Our superpower is the ability to devise and execute long-term plans.
If the world is unknowable then not only businesses will be impossible but also science.
A more narrow claim: "The world is so random, trying to make predictions is foolish"
Even if we granted some of this, it's not clear that the way to tackle it is by being random with your plans.
The way to tackle it is to systemically eliminate chance -- an engineering problem.
To sum up: the world is knowable, but even if it's overbearingly random (doubtful), it's better to devise a plan, systematically reduce risk/chance, and continue to refine the plan and learn from market inputs.
I landed in the United States 10 years ago with nothing but credit card debt.
After one startup exit, one big tech job, and one unicorn, I genuinely believe that it wouldn't have been possible anywhere else in the world.
Here are 10 things I love about this country:
1. Work Ethic
First thing I noticed was that everyone regardless of occupation took pride in doing a bang-up job, even when no one looked.
I asked people: "why do you pour everything into a job even when it is seemingly thankless?" And it was like asking fish "what is water?"
2. Lack of corruption
In the 10 years in the US, I've never been asked for a bribe, and that's surprising.
When you know that you predictably get to keep a sizeable portion of the value you create and that no one will arbitrarily stop you, it makes it easier to be ambitious.
If you want to start or join an early-stage startup, the most important investment you could make today is inner work to ensure you have the stamina & resilience to do extremely hard things.
Here is all self work I did between my 1st and 2nd startup that paid off big time:
1. Understand what matters to you
Startups are hard; if you start one you should aim to work on it for at least 5 years. To do something difficult for a long time you should care enough about it you'd do it for free.
I've dealt with poor sleep for many years. As someone who's excited & energetic, I had a hard time going to sleep. And as a startup founder, I've had a hard time staying asleep.
Today I sleep ~8 hours, and almost every aspect of life is better. Here is an ordered list of tips:
1. Schedule
Your mum was right: Go to bed and wake up at a consistent time. Weekends, weekdays, holidays, etc -- always stick to a routine!
If you sleep late after a night out, wake up early. If you're tired, resist going to bed early.
Eventually, sleep will become automatic.
2. Sleep hygiene
It's all about programming yourself for better sleep. Keep your room a sleep sanctuary. Resist working in there. Or even reading. The more things you associate your bedroom with, the weaker its automatic connection to sleep is.
Fascinating that infinitely complex systems can be constructed from ONE key component. Examples:
- NAND gate and computers
- Neuron and brains/minds
What other systems are like that?
When I was designing a debugger I figured that you could construct it from one operation: STEP_IN which returns stack and other info. Then everything else could be on top of that. E.g STEP_OVER is simply a series of STEP_IN until the stack is length is equal to the starting point
It’s fun to design systems by boiling it down to one thing. But it might not be practical (eg slow). Nonetheless it gives you a better grasp on the problem.