There is zero alpha in possessing knowledge and expertise regarding the fundamentals of publicly traded companies. Zero.
Fundamental investing was always just a narrative.
No one is a smarter, fiercer fundamental investor than Buffett + team. No one. They have a permanent pool of costless capital. They have access to every imaginable information source.

If alpha based on fundamental investing in public markets doesn’t exist here, it doesn’t exist.
I've been riffing on @charliebilello's BRK vs. gold tweet, and a few of the Omaha faithful have been focused on the gold part, which was never my intent.

Here's Berkshire (white) vs. S&P500 (gold) over the past 20 years.
Berkshire is simultaneously proof and disproof of the efficient market hypothesis.

Proof in that the smartest, best capitalized investor in the world has zero alpha over the past 20 years.

Disproof in that Berkshire still exists as a publicly traded investment vehicle.
Here are the last 10 years of BRK vs. S&P.

It's an expensive tracking stock. Sorry.

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More from @EpsilonTheory

16 Dec 21
Important article published yesterday in Nature.

"the largest study to date of acute cardiac outcomes after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination or infection, the first to compare the risk of cardiac events between different vaccine products and SARS-CoV2 infection"

nature.com/articles/s4159…
"First, there was an increase in the risk of myocarditis
within a week of receiving the first dose of both adenovirus and mRNA vaccines, and a higher increased risk after the second dose of both mRNA vaccines."

Increased myocarditis risk range is 1 to 10 per million doses.
"Second, in the same population, there was a greater risk of myocarditis, pericarditis and cardiac arrhythmia following SARS-CoV-2 infection."

Increased myocarditis risk is 40 per million infections.
Read 4 tweets
16 Dec 21
The global Covid situation reminds me of last winter, when different countries were experiencing *wildly* different Covid scenarios.

Here’s S. Korea, for example, long held up as an exemplar of strong policy responses, getting absolutely slammed by Covid today.
A record number of Americans - more than 10 million - have an active case of Covid today.

On average, more than 1,200 Americans die from Covid every day.

There is essentially zero media attention paid to this. It’s the new normal. Whatever.
More Americans are sick with Covid today than at any point in the past two years.

I find it striking that there is very little national media coverage of this.
Read 4 tweets
9 Dec 21
If you're wondering how this plays out, wages will go up x% and tuition will go up x+2%.
Inflation is now common knowledge, which creates an inflation reality regardless of any other economic fundamentals.

Every company will now raise prices. Every worker will now push for higher wages. Whatever your inflation estimates are, they're too low.
epsilontheory.com/inflation-and-…
Read 4 tweets
4 Dec 21
A vaccine-evading, insanely high R0 variant like Omicron is a *political* disaster for every nation that has gone all-in for mass vaccination.

Our failure to develop non-vax Covid mitigation strategies, like universal distribution of effective PPE, is a massive policy mistake.
I am as pro-vax as they come. But it is insane to me that Western gov'ts have put all of their Covid mitigation eggs into the mass vaccination basket, and nothing into universal PPE distribution or air filtration/ventilation retrofits.
Universal PPE distribution does NOT require a mask mandate.

Mask mandates are only for cloth mask theater, where the goal is to curtail the already infected from spreading the virus further.

If I wear effective PPE, I really don’t give a fuck if you choose to go unprotected.
Read 5 tweets
29 Nov 21
"I represent science" and criticism of me is "dangerous".

My god.
Just like Fauci, Peter Daszak intentionally conflates any attack on him or EcoHealth as an attack on “science”.

Did EcoHealth-engineered viruses lead directly to Covid? No.

Did EcoHealth and NIH $$ run gain-of-function experiments on bat coronaviruses in Wuhan? Yes.
Peter Daszak, defender of “science”, just blocked me. Image
Read 4 tweets
28 Nov 21
A thread on the lapdog CCP-apologist fucks who run the World Health Organization.
It doesn’t really matter how Covid variants are named. Skipping the letter Xi in their naming convention (designed in the first place to eliminate references to Wuhan) to arrive at Omicron is ridiculous, not dangerous.
What’s dangerous is WHO leadership placing Chinese political interests ahead of global health interests, something Tedros and team have done from the start.

epsilontheory.com/the-industrial…
Read 15 tweets

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