Thread by @ComissionerKate

The NSW gov released modelling this week which it says shows that the health system will easily be able to cope with the Omicron Tsunami - I’ve broken down some of the numbers for those so inclined…2/

Firstly - in terms of hospitalisation, Domicron claims that there is capacity for an additional 4500 Covid patients in hospital….3/

And that hospital demand will peak at 4700 Covid patients. Here’s a graph showing how much of the claimed capacity was being used by Covid patients on 6 Jan - and what Domicron says the peak in hospital demand will be (which he says will occur in just over two weeks)…..4/

Secondly - in terms of ICU beds, Domicron claims there is capacity for twice as many patients in ICU beds (both Covid and non-Covid)….5/

And that ICU numbers will likely peak at 273 Covid patients in ICU in just over two weeks. Here’s a graph showing how much of the claimed ICU capacity was being used by Covid patients on 6 Jan - and what Domicron says the peak in terms of ICU bed numbers will be….6/

So how accurate is the NSW model? Two obvious areas of concern;

1) The model assumes hospital numbers will peak in a couple of weeks. Given new cases have yet to peak - and there’s a lag between new cases and hospitalisation, it’s difficult to see how that can happen….7/

https://twitter.com/Matt_Hopcraft/status/1479665190325338118

2) The model talks about bed capacity - and doesn’t comment on the NSW Health system’s ability to staff those beds. There’s growing anecdotal evidence that there is limited or no capacity to increase staffing - which makes physical beds useless. See the hashtag #AusHCW….8/

Regardless of whether these models are accurate or not - we now have details of what Domicron and co claim the NSW health systems’ capacity is - and we can track this against the reported numbers.

So we will wait and see :)

And the final word on the accuracy of Domicron’s projections goes to @jimmyrees’s latest Meanwhile in Australia (screenshot below) - see the full video at:

https://twitter.com/jimmyrees/status/1479733698555629568?s=21