Steven Wood Profile picture
Jan 8, 2022 14 tweets 5 min read Read on X
There are a LOT of things on sale right now, $AML.LN is in our top 5 & agnostic to market rotations occurring. What other co. profit warns & goes up (yesterday) because it's so washed out? Let’s take a (fast) lap 🏎🏁

Aston Martin mini-thesis🧵
1/ It's not easy to revive a brand, but it helps if you have a century of performance & global awareness.  But after an epic channel stuffing IPO collapsed shortly after, too many 🇬🇧 investors have been burned by 007's preferred wheels.
2/ Step 1 was a recapitalization to save it from an... 8th (‼️) lifetime bankruptcy. Now with ~£0.5B cash on the BS at YE21, w/ cash burn inflecting close to breakeven, the co. has plenty of room to deliver the turnaround. But still... the history has created a LOT of skeptics.
3/ now it's largely backstopped by Lawrence Stroll, who's not only great at brand revitalizations, but also great at timing his major capital allocation entries and exits. He & the excellent under-followed CEO have been buying stock in recent weeks.
4/ To restore the luxury-cache, $AML.LN reverted to a demand-driven model which has reduced the dealer inventory headwind. This is the most important part - in 2021, "Retail has outstripped Wholesale by a few hundred deliveries." This comes after a major de-stocking in 2020.
5/ CEO Moers' German engineering efficiency plan is driving sustainable 30-35% operating savings through 'Project Horizon' leading to improved margins and achieving FCF stability by 2023.
6/ $AML.LN CEO Tobias Moers is new to the stock market, but as CEO and CTO of Mercedes AMG, he grew volumes almost 5x and profits to over $2 billion. He was responsible for one of Daimler's largest profit drivers over that period.
7/ AML has put out a 2024/2025 target of £2b revenues and £500m EBITDA, w/ CEP compensation aligned with this plan. We think he'll deliver ahead of schedule given his recent comments and positioning. Meanwhile consensus for 2023 EBITDA sits at £344m. Yawn, nothing to see here.🤭
8/ Introduction of the DBX SUV was a game changer for the co. Now ~50% mix of $AML.LN volumes w/ at least 5 derivative models yet to come. Paired w/ a full 2023 front-engine refresh coupled with the Mid-engine program (Valhalla & Vanquish) regular/fresh product debuts are back..
9/ While we love $RACE with a passion, and we know this isn't, nor will ever be the prancing 🐴, the new $AML.LN team is following the same playbook to undersell to demand, raise prices, restore a regular launch cadence, raise ASPs, & bring EBITDA margins closer to luxury peers.
10/ To drive brand awareness, $AML.LN's return to the F1 grid creates a global marketing platform at a fraction of the cost. >90% of races are in countries with an AML dealership, creating a natural cross-selling event & lifestyle presence.
11/ Thanks to Liberty, & the $NFLX series #DrivetoSurvive, F1 viewership in '21 has surged 39% versus '19 levels, creating incalculable brand awareness for AML. In '20, F1 saw a 99% increase in global engagement across social media- the largest jump for any professional sport
12/ And while everyone is so focused on EV, and how AML will compete, its partnership with Mercedes isn't the only solution - F1 tech transfer will bring sustainable carbon-neutral fuel/engines by 2025 formula1.com/en/latest/arti…
13/ '22 will be a big year of P&L lift before a product onslaught in '23. Now with it being run by a German engineer challenging the inefficient British heritage, & an aggressive owner operator as chairman, well versed in luxury strategy, the recent stock pull back is a 🎁.

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More from @GWInvestors

Jan 11, 2022
If you have an interest in container shipping / freight rates, let me know what you think here. We're doing work on the short side to protect our transport-exposed positions (mostly $BOL.FP) and are looking at timing. Here's where the debate stands - would love input. 🧵
1/ order book for new container ships is massive- 23% of current fleet, while not a peak from % perspective, it means a tremendous amount of new capacity coming online in 23 & 24. In fact, notional capacity added in 2023-2024 will be the same as 2007-2008, which was no bueno.
2/ freight forwarders saying the current very high rates last longer. We believe that's driven by the # of ships waiting to dock at port given the capacity constraints at ports (particularly long beach / LA). Here's # of ships standing by- about 1 month of full offload capacity.
Read 11 tweets
Oct 28, 2021
Going to weigh in on $TWTR only because I love pain.

1/ Today's reaction on $TWTR reminds me a lot of May 6, 2014. I was in Detroit. $FCAU unveiled its ambition to grow volumes from 4.4 million to 7 million. The stock closed down 11.7%. Sergio bought shares that day. Image
2/ Investors associated the stock reaction with a communication & management failure- which was really lost on me. After being "burned," no buy-siders bothered to attend the late day "chat" with Sergio... it was only that skeleton crew in the distance Image
3/ So me and 4-5 other lucky people had unfettered access to Sergio for a couple hours. In the moth-balled board room, he opened by lighting a cigarette & asked, "so what did you not like about the plan?" Almost exactly like this: Image
Read 14 tweets
Oct 24, 2021
Nice little Sunday? $BBBY & $HD? what about 🧥? Here’s a #chartstravaganza on why you should check out $SDRY.LN fresh lineup & stock. Let’s shop!

1/ there’s perhaps no better recovery play. Valuation relative to growth expectations make it a coiled spring. Image
2/ Investors continue to question the viability of Superdry'a brand due to prior management errors and Covid-19.. $SDRY.LN stock is down -87% since 2018, significantly underperforming the FTSE250 Image
3/ In any hands other than the father of the brand, we'd agree with the skeptics. But Julian doggedly disagrees with skeptics, and has been putting his money where his mouth is - with recent purchases this week. Image
Read 11 tweets
Oct 8, 2021
Mini $BOL.FP #chartstravaganza. Allons-y!

1 / $VIV.FP buying back ~1.5% shares / week at a stub enterprise value of... 0. In next 2 months, self-buyout via ORPA should launch. Image
2/ Then $BOL.FP trades for less than the value of its $UMG shares. So basically in 2 months, we will own businesses that generate ~€1.4 billion of EBIT/FCF for.... free... while the share count rapidly shrinks. Image
3/ Only $VIV.FP buying shares now, but would expect $BOL.FP to start taking out small minority companies with its cleaner balance sheet in the near-term. Especially given the $VIV.FP take-out is largely self-financed... Image
Read 5 tweets
Nov 20, 2020
1/ the next big trade seems almost too obvious that it’s going to be a boring company / value revival. I’ve been debating with friends (@GreenhavenRoad @AboveAvgOdds @LaughingH20Cap @Dan_Roller @macrotwain) over the past couple of days, and most are skeptical, so here’s my case.
2a/ when I say value, I’m using @mjmauboussin's term, paying less than what a co. is worth, which I think >90% of investors still do. The trick is, is it worth less than a fair value in ‘20, ‘22, or ‘25-26 value, as many are justifying today?
2b / So I’m talking about things undervalued on current results- the “bird in hand” value and NOT price/book.
Read 18 tweets

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