Frederik Gieschen Profile picture
Jan 8, 2022 6 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Brian Jellison's new strategy at $ROP
"bankers focused pitches on consolidating end markets and making easy-to-do deals where the value was in the synergies... Boards wanted easy-to explain combinations"

Book: Lessons from the Titans
Different times:
"The valuation for an asset-heavy company with
potential tail liabilities was not much less than the
valuation for a software company ... if the asset heavy
company had razor/razorblade characteristics, its
valuation was often higher."
"Jellison found the biggest mispricings in less sexy, slower, but still solid growers. These were usually software companies in highly niche markets."
Software "Contracts were typically paid up front ... Deferred revenue meant that Jellison could run his company on zero or negative working capital.

That entire concept made him almost giddy."
The challenges of accounting:

"returns on a traditional accounting construct like ROIC would go down each time a deal was closed. Then it would begin to rise after the deal, only to be deflated by another deal. For traditional investors, that was a challenge to understand."
Bet on this guy.

"He loved the job and the game. He wanted to beat the big guys. An outcast from that world, he was considered not polished enough, with opinions that were too strong. He had a chip on his shoulder.

He benchmarked his company, almost to a level of infatuation."

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Frederik Gieschen

Frederik Gieschen Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @FrederikNeckar

Sep 28
Nobody explains meditation like Seinfeld.

"It's like you have a cell phone and then somebody gives you the charger. Oh, I can get this thing up to a hundred anytime I want?!

"It doesn't feel like anything. Doesn't do anything. I don't get it. I don't understand it. But here's the difference: at 1pm that day, my head does not hit the desk like it used to. ... I sail through the day."
"The way I look at life, basically is it's exhausting. Being busy is exhausting. Doing nothing is exhausting. No matter what you do, it's exhausting.

Sleep is hit and miss, [transcendental meditation] is not. It's this thing that augments your need for rest.

"I would always say to the people that don't do it, I can't believe you stay up all day."
"A lot of stand up is analogies.
The phone charger is pretty tough to beat as an analogy because your phone charger never doesn't work.

And that's the great thing about TM. You never have to wonder. That's the big difference between sleep and TM. TM never doesn't work perfect."
Read 6 tweets
Oct 25, 2023
What are your favorite pieces with reflections on investment success and failure or lessons from decades in markets?

A few that come to mind:
Mark Sellers: So You Want To Be The Next Warren Buffett? How is Your Writing?

"If your competitors know your secret and yet still can't copy it, that's a structural advantage. That's a moat."

"Trait #1 is the ability to buy stocks while others are panicking and sell stocks while others are euphoric.

When 1999 comes around and the market is going up almost every day, you can't bring yourself to sell because if you do, you may fall behind your peers."
Read 11 tweets
Sep 29, 2023
Very interesting new paper by @mjmauboussin on the corporate lifecycle.

Rather than go by age or size, the framework ties life cycle to cash flows.

Stages: Introduction > Growth > Maturity > Shake-out >Decline.

Roughly: Investing -> returning capital -> liquidating assets.
Image
Image
Unexpected:
"We expected low or negative spreads between ROIC and WACC for companies newly listed, rising spreads as they mature, a decline in senescence.

What we found was nearly the opposite. The spread at the date of the IPO was high and narrowed before stabilizing."
Image
Image
Companies going public (selling equity to new investors) when return on capital looks most attractive (and is about to decline)?

Returns to shareholders on the other hand were most attractive for more mature companies.
Image
Image
Read 6 tweets
Jun 9, 2023
Druckenmiller: "I am so tired of being a bear, and being labeled a bear."

But: Liquidity ⬇️
"Since it's taken so long, the Fed has ended up with a higher terminal rate. Inflation gets stickier the longer its in the system. That increases the probability of a hard landing." Image
"We always short the same way. ... I try and think of a situation 12 to 18 months from now and if I think the security prices are going to be less, I short.

Frankly, I'm not sure I've ever made money in shorts. I like it. It's fun, but you can get your head handed to you."
"When I was at Soros, I shorted $200 million worth of Internet stocks in March of 99. And in three weeks covered them at a $600 million loss. I lost $600 million on a $200 million investment in three weeks.

I was short 12 stocks. They all went bankrupt Every one of them."
Read 6 tweets
Jun 8, 2023
ROIC and margins for companies with different moats by @mjmauboussin ImageImage
"A company creates value when its ROIC is in excess of cost of capital. Stated differently, it makes a dollar worth of investment worth more than a dollar in market value.

The market broadly appreciates this, especially when growth is considered as an additional variable."
"Markets are akin to an ecosystem where investors fill various niches. Investors with a short-term horizon tend to focus on near-term metrics such as sales and earnings.

Investors with a long-term horizon focus on competitive advantage and the size of the market opportunity."
Read 5 tweets
May 24, 2023
Like other great investors, Sam Zell used content as a form of leverage. His "guide to the risky art of resurrecting dead properties" earned him his nickname, the Grave Dancer. Image
"Some might see buying and creating value from others’ mistakes as a form of exploitation, but I see it as giving neglected or devalued assets new life.

Often in my career I’ve been the only bidder for them—the last chance for a resurrection."
"I’m not claiming to be altruistic— just optimistic, and confident that I can turn those assets around.

That, in my definition, is an entrepreneur. Someone who doesn’t just see the problems but also sees the solutions—the opportunities."
Read 10 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(