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Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
@BurggrabenH
Jan 8, 2022 • 13 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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Starting on 22 December, European gas prices experienced - shall we say - a bit of a "rug pull". Within 10 days they crashed by 60%. Is the gas crisis over?

Thread
1/n
TTF (EU equ. of US price Henry Hub) crashed from a record $59/MMBtu down to $23/MMBtu within 10 days. Today, the price is back at $29 (left axis; $168/boe) or >7x (!) the price US consumers pay for their heating bill.

So no, the crisis is hardly "over". It gets worse.

2/n
Why did TTF (or it's UK equ. NBP) come crashing down in late December? Chiefly b/c Europe had an unusually warm weather patch. Warm weather meant less gas withdrawals.

3/n
High EU prices earlier in Dec H1 also meant a wide-open EU-Asia LNG arbitrage for US exports.

The new headline: "LNG flotilla" is heading to Europe. Narrative: Crisis solved. Well, not really. The "flotilla" couldn't move the EU gas market "dial".

4/n
Less gas withdrawals & more LNG importing was the recipe which crashed TTF from its "demand destruction levels". But did net EU injections of 3.5TWh for 2.5 days made a diffence?

5/n
Of course NOT. Overall EU gas storage fill is now at 55% (chart below) or where it was on 29 December 2021. The "flotilla" fixed 2-3 days of gas shortages, warmer weather another 4-5 days. Meanwhile, the EU remains 30 days "short gas", subject to weather!

6/n
Meanwhile, lower TTF prices stopped LNG shipments from the US into Europe. This is b/c the price arbitrage for shipments to Europe (as opposed to Asia) is now closed again. What hasn't changed however is Europe's need for more gas, urgently so.

7/n
Worse, high TTF prices forced some industrial output to be shut-in. After all, high commodity prices are supposed to do exactly that - reduce marginal consumption.

And now? Below seasonal consumption is roaring back up (chart: EU gas withdrawals (blue line) vs 8y-avg)

8/n
Consumption was already at record levels when compared to past 8y (as shown in chart above) as EU needs more gas for everything, but certainly for electricity generation. With a below-average cold temperature outlook (chart for 18 days; North-West EU), that will not change.

9/n
For more background on why Europe is in short supply of gas (the #hydrocarbon that provides power & heat) check this past thread. Upfront, the EU has structural supply issues, the alleviation of which need policy changes.

10/n @OlafScholz @vonderleyen
The Forward market however does not count on such policy changes. Instead it prices in a tighter EU gas market for years to come, as we illustrate below...

11/n
Finally, if somebody acuses you, @biancoresearch, that you are "clueless" or "if only media bothered to look at the numbers, it would have found out that #GAZPROM deliveries to EU are stable as a rock" - be careful b/c research is not their strength.

12/n @JavierBlas
To be clear, the EU gas crisis has many reasons. But of course, Gazprom is one reason. It delivered 38% LESS gas into the CEE pipeline system when compared to 2019 levels (pre-Covid consumption). That is 600TWh of gas missing (net of S2M)!

How did he say, clueless!

13/13

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More from @BurggrabenH

Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
Aug 4
Let me add a few more facts & figures and some high level observations about the United States goods trade deficits with Switzerland of some $20bn annually.

A thread

1/8
Upfront and from a Swiss patriotic view:

The Swiss government and certain companies have little reason to lament—these tariffs were foreseeable.

Yes, the real issue is their scale: 39% compared to Europe’s 15%, which clearly puts some Swiss exports at a competitive disadvantage. It is what it is.

And while I still believe this situation is fixable, we must be prepared for the worst-case scenario to persist—or even worsen, with potential new tariffs on pharmaceuticals (currently exempted).

So, who is at fault? As some of us learned in officer school during military service: the Bundesrat misjudged the fundamentals of strategic assessment—Lagebeurteilung (judgement of enemy situation). That needs to be addressed. Trump wants balanced trade. Address it. Period.

History is not kind to those who choose dreams over reality—or to the weak who paint themselves as victims.

Therefore, whether Trump’s trade deficit logic makes any sense whatsoever (which it clearly doesn't in the Swiss case) is beside the point.

He’s the president. He has communicated his views clearly and consistently for decades. Adapt. Take the man seriously.

Trustworthy or not, as lamented by President Keller Sutter is none of our business.

2/n @SecScottBessent @BobgonzaleBob
Let’s now take a closer look at Switzerland’s goods trade surplus with the United States.

At Burggraben, we rely on the OEC tool (a paywalled MIT spin-off) for robust global trade data as part of our investment analysis process of all sorts—so we can assess this with confidence. I hope our readers will appreciate the data quality shared herewith for free.

While the annual trade surplus has fluctuated in recent years, the underlying—or let’s call it intrinsic—gap consistently hovers around $20 billion, as the data below will show.

3/nImage
Read 8 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
Jun 12
Let’s break down the current Iran–US–Israel situation, based on the latest facts and statements.

1) What’s the @POTUS stance?
Trump has been consistent for years — and reiterated just yesterday: “Iran cannot have the bomb. Period.”

1/n
2) Does Iran already have the bomb?
We don’t know for sure — but here’s what the latest IAEA report says:

🔎 Iran remains in non-compliance with key nuclear commitments. This finding could pave the way for renewed sanctions.

2/n
iaea.org/newscenter/sta…
More concretely, Iran likely enriched some 250kg of HEU stockpiles since 2021. Worse, it also said to adds significant new capacities.

That material so far could quickly be turned into the fuel for the equivalent of 10 bombs, should Iran’s leadership take the political decision to pursue weapons, according to Bloomberg.

3/nImage
Image
Image
Read 8 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
Apr 28
Here is my theory how the major incident - a so called blackout - occurred at 12:30 CET today in the power system of Spain & Portugal:

1/n Image
At the time of the incident, Spain and Portugal operated the grid at very high renewables share of about 66% - i.e solar (55%) and wind (11%; eolica)

2/n Image
Image
While this isn’t unusual for Spain, it does mean that the grid operates with little inertia (resistance to change) during such time. The grid is therefore vulnerable to external effects…!

3/n Image
Read 10 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
Apr 3
On this platform, certain perma bulls keep pushing a bullish crude narrative based on relative U.S. inventories—day after day, for three years now.

Their logic: Total U.S. crude inventories (including the SPR) are at 838 million barrels (orange line), 200 million barrels below the 10-year average → bullish!

Yet, inventories keep falling, and prices remain stuck in a range. Clearly, they are wrong.

1/9 @UrbanKaoboy @Iris62655179 @BrentRuditLeoImage
The problem with their logic?

a) The U.S. is no longer the marginal importer of crude oil—Asia is (or was).

b) U.S. inventories are artificially high on a 10-year average due to the shale boom, which took off in 2014. Shale growth and Covid distort the data, keeping inventories (ex SPR) elevated. So any 5- or 10-year comparison is meaningless—period.

2/n US Crude Oil Inventory ex SPRImage
Including SPRs, the picture looks more normalised - but not tight. But does the US really need 700mb of strategic reserves in 2025? I don't think so.

3/n US Crude Inv incl SPRs Image
Read 9 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
Mar 23
Yesterday, I shared a few thoughts that I’d like to expand on, especially given how volatile the current tariff landscape under this admin has become.

Navigating it isn’t just difficult—it’s nearly impossible to avoid missteps. Hopefully some traders will expand on my thoughts...

1/n
What do we know?

As at 23 March 2025, Comex copper price in New York is trading at 14% premium to LME in London. Buying a tonne of copper in NY costs $11,213 versus 9,842 in London, $1,371 per tonne more than in London.

2/n Image
Why is that? Because of tariff FEARS, not tariffs.

Traders are hedging future risk of potential tariffs on all forms of the raw material, such as cathodes, concentrates, ores, and even scrap. But there aren't such tariffs in place for copper yet (unlike alumnium).

3/n
 fastmarkets.com/insights/us-ta…
Read 9 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
Mar 22
A few thoughts on copper.

The current Comex price action in the U.S. is basically a Trump tariff trade mirage and is otherwise as misleading of fundaments as the May 2024 price action of which I warned on multiple occasions.

1/n $/pound Image
In May 2024 however, U.S. price action was more in synch with London. But it didn't reflect weak Chinese housing & construction fundamentals which has been 15-30% of GLOBAL copper use for the past two decades. Today, U.S. prices trade as if borders close tomorrow.

2/n Comex - LME arb in $/tImage
Unlike May 2024, copper blue chips like $FCX, however, do not buy the rally. So at least it seems that the equity market understands the tariff aspect of the copper price mirage.

3/n Change in % Image
Read 15 tweets

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