One of my key learning with yes bank was that if the corporate governance or regulatory compliance is worsening (or perceived to be worsening) it's better for the small investor to get out, evaluate, then decide.
Not investment advice but I would have sold RBL, HGS, Hikal.0
Unless you have the md or ceo on speed dial, it's very hard for you to know what is going on
If you're right in selling you save 80%.
If you're wrong you lose 20% but live to fight another day.
The ONLY exception I would add is if you have 96% confidence that the event is a non issue.
A very seasoned investor I know of didn't sell RBL because he had done very deep research & is convinced it's a non issue. 🙏🙏
Agar itna research kiya toh alag baat hai.
Purpose is not to point fingers, it's very much possible that these cos have done no wrong & eventually market may realise that, question is whether it's worth taking that risk.
Some of you might also find my position slightly paradoxical wrt my investment in Mirza.
The reason it's not , focus on where the puck is moving, not where it has been. :)
If price discounts nottiness & nottiness reduces I'm happy to buy.
BTW just to be clear I am not forming an opinion on hikal, RBL, HGS. I have studied 2 of those in some depth.
If price of hikal falls 50% I might even decide to invest if I find risk reward favorable AFTER evaluating whether current issue is a big one or not.
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Let us try to understand the possible reason(s) behind recent ferocious price increases. Let us also understand how to analyse a business through innovative means.
Please ReTweet if you find it useful.
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I will structure the deep dive into 5 segments: 1. Industry Trends & Opportunity size 2. Brands/segments 3. Corporate Governance 4. Recent Triggers 5. Scuttlebutt 6. Valuation 7. Anti-thesis 8. Thesis/Conclusion
1. Industry Trends
Mirza international is in the business of building consumer brands for Shoes & Related Athleisure clothes (sports wear, sweat shorts & the likes). Imagine it to be like a middle or low income person’s Nike.
Disc: valuations are now discounting lot of the future. I will be very selective in deploying new capital to this position. For sake of portfolio balancing.
Let's discuss facts :
Facts: 1. Spotify makes 1.46$ per ad customer. 12.6$ per paying subscriber. 2. Spotify shares a % of that revenue with the content label in proportion to # of streams of songs.
This means one with higher streams gets higher share of that 12.5%.
This means that move from ad to paid results in an 8x upside. Till will most likely happen over a period of 10-20 years. Add to top & bottomline growth.
Fact:
He mentions receiving share of subscription in addition to the 10 Paisa.
Here are 21 companies that I studied in 2021 but decided not to invest in. #21 might blow your mind. 🤣🤯
Will also share some consolidated learnings. Please Retweet to help max investors. 🙏
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Recently learned from a @Gautam__Baid sir video ( video on how to generate investment ideas):
something which is common to all achievers is their art of saying no. I have learned the same in my studies. This thread contains a list of ideas I said no to.
Format:
1️⃣ What I liked about that company.
2️⃣ What I did not like about the company.
3️⃣ Why I did not invest in the company.
Other investors can have a different perception about the company & investment & that is okay. Because & repeat after me:
Everyone talks about 10 baggers. I want to talk about a Reverse 20 bagger.
An 'investment' which reduced my capital by 20x.
This is the story of how I 'invested' in Yes Bank & Lost Lakhs of rupees.
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1️⃣ How I got hooked
Much before i discovered ValuePickr and screener, I was kind of building a screener of my own, crawling data from websites and using SQL to do the screening part. One of the very first concepts I learned was that of “mean reversion”.
If you buy companies with low P/E multiples, then the P/E multiples mean-revert. Sounds so good in theory, but difficult to implement in practice. One of companies I found this way (screening on my own) was Yes Bank.
Lets discuss how to invest in equity directly, the end to end picture, taking as an example my largest holding: RACL ⚙️ 🖥️
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I am not a financial advisor & please don’t treat any of this as financial advice. Also, please dont think of whatever i say here as gospel or the absolute truth. This is only my perception of the truth.
I am not your Guru.
A little bit of framework/paradigm building up-front, please bear with me.
Here is the 1 tweet summary. 1000s of hours of reading, writing & contemplation.
Then, decades of patience. If we get both the steps roughly right, then some 💰💰.