Saregama q4 was flat. I think i can understand now what the problem is
Stated guidance is to acquire 25-30% of all content released every year
In largest segment : Hindi : they acquired 5% of songs
In 2 other smaller segments : Telugu & Malayalam they acquired 20%
look at the music segment PBT (since it's dominated by streaming, carvan low margin)
Compare it to the YouTube views growth
Q3Fy22 to Q4fy23 :
Views: more than double
Music ebit : 64 cr to 58 cr ebit. No growth at all
What does that tell us about monetization per view
Mar 4 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Two kind of capital for growth
1. Working capital (inventory, receivables) 2. Capital expenditure (plant, machinery)
#1 is accounted for in operating cash flow
#2 is accounted for in cashflow from investing activities
Read each screenshot carefully, look beyond screener 🙏
When you do you will realise following: 1. 90% of receivables are not even due. They are essentially part of the payment terms 2. 100% of inventory is raw material & cwip (higher rm for growth & higher cwip due to longer execution timelines)
Jan 28 • 22 tweets • 5 min read
A lot of you call me andh bhakt
You are missing the forest for the trees. Focus on the intent, the actions, look at the broader picture. If you get lost in the details, you are basically playing into hands of forces which act to break, loot & keep india poor
How many governments have the guts to implement gst? How many had the guts to take away something like old pension scheme so that poor people can benefit rather than govt employees (my own mom will lose but country before family)
Jan 14 • 55 tweets • 14 min read
My name is XPRO & i am not a packaging film maker.
A new 7% position for me. A company promoted by Birlas.
Do retweet if you find it useful. 🙏
I am not a sebi registered advisor. The reason i share about my learnings is to motivate everyone to do the same & build a sharing ecosystem. I firmly believe that knowledge multiplies by sharing
Nothing i share should be construed as a buy or sell reco
Jan 10 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
The "Universe 25" experiment is one of the most terrifying experiments in the history of science, which, through the behavior of a colony of mice, is an attempt by scientists to explain human societies.
The idea of "Universe 25" Came from the American scientist John Calhoun, who created an "ideal world" in which hundreds of mice would live and reproduce.
Nov 20, 2022 • 15 tweets • 6 min read
I presented Sarthak metals in IAS today. Here is a quick thread discussing what i presented
Have a ~5% position. 🧵
Whatever i present, is always just sharing of knowledge. I am NOT a sebi registered advisor. This is not a buy or sell.
Market is worst place to find out your conviction is borrowed. Chaddi bhi chali jaaegi. Please do not mindlessly coattail me or ANYONE.
Oct 31, 2022 • 21 tweets • 12 min read
Top 10 Investment related YouTube channels which i have found to be indispensable
Hope it helps you become a better investor
Fair warning, #7 might truly blow your mind 🤣
#1 AGMs: Company YouTube Channels
Knowledge worth its weight in Gold. Just lying around to be discovered.
Some of These cos dont generally talk. That is what makes their AGMs or interviews extremely important.
1. QoQ Flat: yet to see the steep ramp up required for 1B$ sales 2. FDF has fallen off a cliff. Some pricing pressure in ARV? 3. As always, Synthesis is trying hardest to support 4. Margins reduced
This is the time to truly find out whether your conviction is your own, or borrowed.
Not invested, watching and studying closely.
Oct 9, 2022 • 45 tweets • 11 min read
A recent Electronics Retail co I added to portfolio, Aditya Vision
Please consider retweeting if you find it useful.
Q: How does AVL earn its money?
A: Aditya Vision is a Brick & mortar retailer of electronics (Televisions, Air conditioners, Refrigerators, Mobile phones). Started in 1999 with 1 store & and slowly scaled up to 89 stores today. Majority in Bihar. Some in Jharkhand.
Sep 17, 2022 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
I've been selling saregama. Although co is doing great work the headwinds faced by all the advertising cos is very real. This makes it very tough for saregama to grow revenues even if views grow. Personally think YouTube shorts is noise, value proposition for advertiser is low
Buyer side consolidation:
Have decided to sell Mastek & Intellect Design Arena.
Different reasons for both.
When data changes, we have to change our decisions & actions.
Ive been reading a lot on UK economy & it seems like the macroeconomic risk of UK & europe remaining in recession is quite high.
10% inflation in UK is unheard of. The risk to Mastek's guidance is too high.
Aug 9, 2022 • 60 tweets • 18 min read
A 🧵 to understand the thesis & the risks of the latest entrant in my portfolio Tinna Rubber 👇
20-25% grower, 20% ROE, around 15 P/E (with competitive advantages) is a recipe for wealth creation.
Q1: What does Tinna Rubber do?
A: Tinna is in the circular economy space. It buys used rubber tyres, breaks the tyres into its components (the rubber part, the steel wire part) & recycles both of them: Crumb rubber Modifier (CRM), Micronized Rubber powder (MRP), steel abrasives
Derating started from april. Stock almost halved. Part is due to midcap correction. Part due to softness of biz.
Price can lead fundamentals. One of my biggest learning is to panic early or not panic.
Will also discuss my strategy
Despite a weak result, the price has not reacted. This is what they mean by "it was in the price". Price already corrected in anticipation of poor Q1 results.
Jul 3, 2022 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
The P/E bias 🧵
Probably the least talked about bias in investment community but MOST important bias that exists is the P/E bias. 99% of investors are affected at least 50% of time by this bias. We look at P/E ratios.
We already form an opinion on whether we want to own the company or not. Then, we try to look for confirming evidence that supports that bias to own a low pe company. psychologytoday.com/us/blog/ambiga…
Jun 12, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
✅: Consolidating profit pool with co gaining market share in tailwind wali industry
Some eg: 1. Pix in v-belt 2. Angel in broking 3. Shivalik in shunts 4. Racl in luxury autos 5. Rolex rings in bearing ring 6. Xpro in dielectric film
Which cos you track have such a structure?
7. Prevest denpro in dental materials 8. Tarsons in lab equipment 9. Kilpest in diagnostic reagents 10. Tatava chintan in sda, ptc & zeolites 11. APL Apollo in structural steel tubes 12. Gujrat ambuja in corn & corn derivatives
Jun 1, 2022 • 20 tweets • 6 min read
A thread on Krsnaa Q4 results & more importantly the investor presentation. Some really revealing 🔍 details this time.
To get started, one Can read my good friend @AnishA_Moonka 's thread to know more about biz: