Fascinating that the most complex machine in this universe became self aware
Nothing i share is a buy/sell reco. I'm not a sebi registered advisor.
38 added to My Authors
Sep 17 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
I've been selling saregama. Although co is doing great work the headwinds faced by all the advertising cos is very real. This makes it very tough for saregama to grow revenues even if views grow. Personally think YouTube shorts is noise, value proposition for advertiser is low
Buyer side consolidation:
Have decided to sell Mastek & Intellect Design Arena.
Different reasons for both.
When data changes, we have to change our decisions & actions.
Ive been reading a lot on UK economy & it seems like the macroeconomic risk of UK & europe remaining in recession is quite high.
10% inflation in UK is unheard of. The risk to Mastek's guidance is too high.
Aug 9 • 60 tweets • 18 min read
A 🧵 to understand the thesis & the risks of the latest entrant in my portfolio Tinna Rubber 👇
20-25% grower, 20% ROE, around 15 P/E (with competitive advantages) is a recipe for wealth creation.
Q1: What does Tinna Rubber do?
A: Tinna is in the circular economy space. It buys used rubber tyres, breaks the tyres into its components (the rubber part, the steel wire part) & recycles both of them: Crumb rubber Modifier (CRM), Micronized Rubber powder (MRP), steel abrasives
Derating started from april. Stock almost halved. Part is due to midcap correction. Part due to softness of biz.
Price can lead fundamentals. One of my biggest learning is to panic early or not panic.
Will also discuss my strategy
Despite a weak result, the price has not reacted. This is what they mean by "it was in the price". Price already corrected in anticipation of poor Q1 results.
Jul 3 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
The P/E bias 🧵
Probably the least talked about bias in investment community but MOST important bias that exists is the P/E bias. 99% of investors are affected at least 50% of time by this bias. We look at P/E ratios.
We already form an opinion on whether we want to own the company or not. Then, we try to look for confirming evidence that supports that bias to own a low pe company. psychologytoday.com/us/blog/ambiga…
Jun 12 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
✅: Consolidating profit pool with co gaining market share in tailwind wali industry
Some eg: 1. Pix in v-belt 2. Angel in broking 3. Shivalik in shunts 4. Racl in luxury autos 5. Rolex rings in bearing ring 6. Xpro in dielectric film
Which cos you track have such a structure?
7. Prevest denpro in dental materials 8. Tarsons in lab equipment 9. Kilpest in diagnostic reagents 10. Tatava chintan in sda, ptc & zeolites 11. APL Apollo in structural steel tubes 12. Gujrat ambuja in corn & corn derivatives
Jun 1 • 20 tweets • 6 min read
A thread on Krsnaa Q4 results & more importantly the investor presentation. Some really revealing 🔍 details this time.
To get started, one Can read my good friend @AnishA_Moonka 's thread to know more about biz:
Let us talk about one of the latest, largest entrant into my portfolio.
Shivalik bimetal Controls Limited. A 7% position.
Focus on the process. Names will come & names will go, but process lives on forever.
This time, i want to structure the thread as a series of Q&A to help us understand the business, opportunity, risks & so forth.
13 Questions, 13 Answers.
May 7 • 74 tweets • 18 min read
Intellect Design Arena
Let us understand the business & my investment thesis.
Consider sharing/Retweeting if you find the thread useful
Outline 1. Business Understanding 2. Drivers of Sales Growth 3. Drivers of operating leverage 4. Intellect's Right to Win / Competitive advantages 5. Financials 6. Valuation 7. Anti-thesis 8. Disclaimer 9. Summary
Apr 30 • 16 tweets • 5 min read
How to calculate XIRR (internal rate of return, similar to CAGR for people who deploy capital all the time) in Google Sheets.
please retweet if you find it useful.
PS: I just learned that my XIRR is 22% for YTD.
Why is this important?
To know how we are performing.
Without measurement, there can be no science.
Mar 19 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Dubai expo is highly over rated
But one good thing i saw: india line was longest.
Some countries don't allow without reservation. India mei sabko allow Kiya. Line was huge. But nobody was stopped.
That's india for you. Its bloody hard out here. But, it's possible.
Lokah Samastah Sukhino Bhavantu.
Mar 3 • 34 tweets • 9 min read
How to evaluate risk of corporate loans blowing up P&L for a bank.
Example of IDFC 🏦 from my portfolio (feel free to apply it to a lender of your choice)
A step by step guide. Must read for ANY person invested in lenders. Please retweet if you find it useful. :)
Mar 1 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Pix rating has been upgraded to A/A1.
The rating report lauds the stable margins despite 100% increase in rubber (raw material) prices.
In FY21, the company had undertaken capex to the tune of ~Rs.25 crore which was mainly towards technology upgradation. As per the management, improvement in technology has led the company to phase out older machinery with latest technology.
Feb 24 • 62 tweets • 18 min read
Such opportunities only come once in a few years.
Step-by-step: how to use (the free) @screener_in to generate investment ideas.
Do retweet if you find it useful to benefit max investors. 🙏🙏
Ready or not, 🧵🧵⤵️
I will use the free screener version so that everyone can follow along.
“You can’t build a business on free. Our number one strategy for growth is subscription. We have been running pilots (at Rs 99 per month). Over the next two-three years the advertising to subscription ratio should be 60:40"