Sahil Sharma Profile picture
Investing. Science. Technology. Space. Longevity. It is fascinating that the most complex machine in this universe became self aware
P V Natarajan Profile picture Sujoy De Profile picture Pankaj Agrawal Profile picture Ravi Chadha Profile picture Adarsh V C Profile picture 14 added to My Authors
22 Sep
🧡🧡🧡🧡 πŸ‘‡

Artificial Inteligence = πŸ–₯️ + 🧠

When can you expect your fridge & mobile phone to revolt against you? (Spoiler Alert: Not in the foreseeable future).

Please Do 're-tweet' the Thread & help me spread the knowledge to more people.
1. The Language
In order to understand Artificial intelligence, machine learning, deep learning, we need to start at the very basics.
Humans speak and understand a wide variety of 'natural' languages (this is what computer science community calls them): like English, Hindi, Marathi, Bengali, Tamil etc.
Read 70 tweets
12 Sep
Vaibhav Global.

The OG πŸ’πŸ’ŽπŸ’πŸ’ŽπŸ’πŸ’Ž in the dust.

πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡
1. Business Model.

Vaibhav Global is a vertically integrated omnichannel company that sells value fashion jewellery & lifestyle products.

Don't worry, I'll break those terms down in subsequent tweets.
Let's dive deeper into the vertical integration aspect. VGL is present across the value chain.
(i) Identifying trends & products.
(ii) Manufacturing or sourcing.
(iii) Selling.
Read 58 tweets
4 Sep
🧡🧡

How to make the right decisions so as to end up being financially independent

OR to be rich.

OR to retire early.

OR to improve the standard of your life.

Sharing my views & what works for me.

If you like it, please RT to benefit maximum investors. πŸ™
Imagine a graph of your net worth versus time. Each point on the graph captures on the horizontal axis, what time it is in your life, and on vertical axis, what your net worth is.
This is how it would look like for most people. A wiggly line inching upwards & to the right. What do we want to maximize though?
Read 42 tweets
3 Sep
#racl concall was interesting today. I learned that breaking into company supply chains is quite difficult. Management was appreciated for their corporate governance.

Key takeaway: they will do another 50cr capex this year. This+ last year capex should take care of fy25 topline
Management also mentioned that if I do 100 rs gear in ice and 100 ka volume and gear becomes 500 rupees with 40 volume overall I will gain.

Not sure if it can be taken as guidance but seems like volume drop due to ev will be more than compensated by GM improvement.
Another key benefit is asset turns could go up since volume goes down while total value remains same or slightly increases.
Read 4 tweets
31 Aug
Have heard a lot of noise around IT sector margins suffering due to attrition.

Wanted to share some data and personal experience. Note that this only applies to the multinational companies. Don't apply it to all Indian IT companies.
Hiring people who are outside of the usual pay bands is very frequent for these multinational cos. The way companies handle this is to structure pay in a way that first year salary is higher than the current salary of employee.
The salaries then fall off, unless employee performs very well (in which case they deserve the hike).
Read 6 tweets
29 Aug
This thread is to create awareness on how to use
valuepickr.com

Please note that i am not officially associated with website. Only an active contributor & hope to benefit from network effects of interested investors actively contributing on platform.
Valuepickr.com is above all else a community of like minded investors who wants to actively engage in understandin at a fundamental level & separate wheat from the chaff.

Develop an understanding of the biz, industry, competitive intensity, management, valuation
Website was created > 10 years ago. Early users are seasoned investors & i personally look to learn greatly by following their footprints across the website.
Read 22 tweets
28 Aug
Mega πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡ on #Pix transmissions & what makes this company special.

TL;DR: Recession proof play on global capex cycle revival & mechanisation of indian agriculture.
First of all a huge shout out to ValuePickr. This is one of the hardest companies to research. Without ValuePickr I'd know almost nothing about Pix. Most of knowledge on this thread comes from VP

forum.valuepickr.com/t/pix-transmis…
At one point in time, humans had to do all physical labor by hand. Physically making goods, through strenuous labor.
Read 57 tweets
22 Aug
My life was divided into 3 phases: School, college & job.

With the benefit of hindsight, I wanted to share some key life-lessons from the "school" part of life.

Could end up benefitting everyone regardless of profession, so do read on. πŸ™

πŸ§΅πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡

Plz RT if you find it useful
I mean for this 3-part series of threads to be a definitive answer to "How can I get a Job at Google?"

or in general:

"How can I excel at X" for some X.
For a large part of my school life, I felt I was quite average. I say that in a neutral way. I was neither too good nor too bad at my studies. But mathematics always drew my fascination.
Read 24 tweets
18 Aug
Time for some anti-thesis pointers.

What is the seller thinking? What is their thesis? It always helps to keep track of what can go wrong with the company so that when it actually goes wrong, you can act on it and are not affected by the myriad biases that humans have.
πŸ§΅πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡πŸ‘‡
#idfcfirstb first, coz first is in the name.
1. Now that SA rates are not that high, casa growth can slow down. Could slow down to below 25% where bank is unable to maintain casa ratio while growing AUM at guided rate of 25%.
2. Too many landmines hidden in balance sheet. Wave 2 stress could be higher than guidance. If we annualize q1 numbers, stress in retail could be > 5% of book.
Infra book is landmine of its own. First DHFL, Reliance capital, now Vodafone Idea. Where does it stop? Maybe it doesnt
Read 57 tweets
15 Aug
Every investor (including yours truly) makes the mistake of focussing on only the headline numbers and ignoring the underlying transformation. Taking lack of profit to be lack of numbers is akin to thinking that tip of iceberg represents entirity of the ice mass.
It is also a bit risky to assume that one cannot make money from high risk creditors. If that were the case, then companies like Bajaj finance would not exist. No, what is needed is the ability to price the risk properly.
2.5% credit costs on 9% incremental NIMs is easily absorbed. The underwriting quality is not reflected in credit costs, it's reflected in incremental credit costs adjusted NIMs.
Read 7 tweets
13 Aug
I studied #camlin #fine #sciences for past few weeks. Does not deserve full thread imo so only sharing some key take-aways.

πŸ‘‡πŸ‘‡πŸ‘‡
few things i like:
lot of triggers: more efficient manufacturing (lot of capex in Dahej), plans to forward integrate all catechol and hydroquinone production (higher Gross margins).
Manufacturing becoming more efficient incrementally(dahej instead of italy and other geopgraphies), the battery play (Lockheed contract) which definitely can be huge. Fermentation company that they are aquiring for omega 3 fatty acids production
Read 7 tweets
13 Aug
There's a couple of key changes happening in the consumer facing FMCG brands which I think investors need to taje notice of and think about. Investors of #itc #hul #britannia need to think carefully about this. πŸ‘‡πŸ‘‡
1️⃣ The retailer is becoming ecommerce heavy. Ex: I buy all my grocery on Tata big basket or Amazon. To me this represents a change in power dynamics across the value chain. The ability of Amazon or big basket to bargain is far higher than an offline only limited space distributor
Or a mom and pop front end kirana store. Now how fast this shows up in numbers and depresses working capital for brands is a function of market share of e-retail vs that of offline retail. I'd definitely track this if I were invested in the consumer facing brands.
Read 7 tweets
12 Aug
Let us estimate the ROIIC for #Pix transmissions. See screener.in page for details on the capex that is ongoing.
To be more precise, ill estimate the ROCE for incremental capital deployed
1. 60 cr capex happening. 50% capacity expansion.
2. EBIT of 96cr in FY21. So incremental EBIT of 48cr assuming no margin expansion.
3. 150cr Working capital for FY21. 75cr for incremental sales assuming no change in WC position.
4. 48/(60+75) = 35.5%
FY21 ROCE is 28%.
Read 4 tweets
10 Aug
Time for a thread on things I have learned in last 1 year. My key takeaways, and also mistakes I made.

If you like the thread, please retweet this tweet so it can benefit maximum investors.
πŸ§΅πŸ§΅πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡πŸ‘‡πŸ‘‡
1⃣ Predicting nifty levels and what broader markets will do is an exercise in futility

Nobody can do it consistently. This is because there are too many random variables (probabilistic outcomes) which control the level of nifty including but not limited to:
investors ease of access to money, federal bank action across the world, profitability of cos, demand, supply, extent of formalisation of economies, expectations of aforementioned factors and very broadly, the extent of innovation coming into the market
Read 62 tweets
9 Aug
"Upsurge in the valuation of API companies is also because of formulation companies stocking up APIs. (~ to defensive buying of semiconductors by consumer electronics companies) β€œIf earlier they’d stock for 3m , they began stocking for 6m-12m"

- the-ken.com/story/glenmark…
Recent neuland concall showing some reversal of that trend:

Things seem to be consistent.
Observe Divi's growth in Jun-20 and subsequent quarters versus growth in this Q:
Read 6 tweets
7 Aug
First πŸ₯‡ in this Olympics. Wohoooo!!!

Correct comparison is to nearby countries with similar per capita incomes. India standa out head and shoulders above everybody else. Don't compare to China Japan uk and usa or russia. I am hopeful about the future.

✌️✌️🀞🀞 Image
Current medal table for 2020 Olympics. Image
2016 Olympics tally: Image
Read 5 tweets
3 Aug
Q1FY22 concall was today for πŸŒ‹πŸŒ‹. My key takeaways πŸ‘‡πŸ‘‡

1⃣ Revenue & margin πŸ”»

In b/w lines:
Multiple factors for affecting both. Unit 3 has been commercialised, but not ramped up. Operating de-leverage at play. CMS revenue lumpy. As biz mix changes, so do margins.
Some CMS revenue postponed due to complex nature of projects (more on that later).

2⃣ Medium term guidance of 15-20% topline growth and 20% EBITDA margins

In b/w lines:
What we need to understand is that this is a very lumpy biz, even YoY there wont always be 15% growth.
Prices for Generic APIs are as per market movements. CMS revenues are lumpy. How can a management predict when will the Patent protected innovator molecule get commercialised? They simply cannot. With unit 3 ramping up & CMS revenue coming up, i fully expect 20% EBITDA margins
Read 8 tweets
3 Aug
Look again at that dot. That's here. That's home. That's us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives.
The aggregate of our joy and suffering, thousands of confident religions, ideologies, and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilization, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every mother and father,
...hopeful child, inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every "superstar," every "supreme leader," every saint and sinner in the history of our species lived there--on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam.
Read 10 tweets
31 Jul
#IDFCFIRSTBank FIRST concall was right now. My key takeaways:

1. Credit costs of 2.5% in FY22, 2% in steady state.
In b/w lines: Bank has incremental NIMs of >9% which will support 2% credit costs. 1800cr provisions taken in Q1 represent a very conservative approach
A 850cr mumbai toll road account slipped into NPA due to covid lockdowns. There were partial payments. Expect it to come out of NPA post covid wave. VI exposure credit costs not included in 2.5% guidance.
2. Runway for growth is long
In b/w lines: Can grow loan book at 25% for a long time. Expecting 18-20% ROE from retail lending alone in steady state. CASA will also continue to grow enough to support retail lending needs. Enough cash right now.
Read 9 tweets
31 Jul
Reading a concall. Very interesting. Image
Image
Image
Read 4 tweets
30 Jul
#lauruslabs Q1 results key takeaways:
1. Diversification away from ARV

In b/w lines:
Currently 85% of filings in US/EU are ARV. This represents 11B$ of market opportunity.
But products under development (which represent 37B$ of opportunity) are skewed 80/20 for non-arv.
2. CDMO segment growth can surprise on upside.

In b/w lines:
the 195cr revenue in Q1 did not contain any one-offs. This represents a very good growth YoY growth of ~100%. Generally Q4 is strongest and Q1 this time was even higher. Only 4 products commercialised.
Huge potential for the 40+ products in pipeline. expecting this to drive growth in US and EU markets.

3. ARV market share gains to be limited
Read 5 tweets