Mike Honey Profile picture
Jan 9, 2022 11 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Here's an analysis of cases, deaths and vaccinations, for Australia, broken down by state/territory.

First at the national level. Cases have more than tripled in the latest week, as "let it rip" policies have allowed rampant Omicron spread in most regions.
Denmark was the only comparable country with a higher case rate in the prior week.

Their Omicron outbreak built on many weeks of Delta spread, which was not the case in much of Australia.
New South Wales has led the "let it rip" / "live with the virus" charge. They have not yet started including RAT counts, so the cases are only what could be processed by their overwhelmed PCR testing capacity.

Deaths typically lag cases by 3 weeks, so are starting to increase.
Victoria's case counts include almost a full week of (self-reported) RAT test results, which made up ~40% of this weeks' cases. RAT supply is still utterly inadequate everywhere in Australia.

The Omicron spike is a few weeks behind NSW, so has not yet impacted death rates.
Queensland's Omicron spike is just astonishing. After months of near-zero cases, they threw open their borders to neighbouring NSW, where Omicron super-spreader events had just occurred.

Deaths are just getting started - 3 weeks ago there were only 129 cases for an entire week.
South Australia is another former "zero-COVID" state that opened it's internal borders to Omicron. From sequencing data, they have the purest Omicron outbreak in the world - close to 100%.

Notably, deaths are already climbing, at a faster pace than Delta.
In Western Australia, there has been some Delta and Omicron community spread this week, however, that might now be under control.

It's a mystery to me why the other zero-COVID states did not follow the same course, or at least postpone re-opening a few weeks to assess risk.
Tasmanian cases have shot up in just a few weeks to rival the worst-affected countries in Europe.

Very high vaccination rates might keep deaths low.
The Northern Territory is now facing the familiar steep Omicron wave.
The Australian Capital Territory (surrounded by NSW) has been battling a long Delta outbreak, but now Omicron has certainly arrived.
The QLD, SA & TAS case counts include 1 day of self-reported RAT results.

COVID-19 stats from @covidliveau.

Interactive DataViz here:
github.com/Mike-Honey/cov…

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More from @Mike_Honey_

Aug 2
Here’s the July 2025 update I just sent to my GitHub Sponsors.
I continued to share results from these projects, here and on other social media platforms
🧵
If you are in a position to support my open-source project work, then any amount is welcome. You just need to create a free GitHub account, and you can remain anonymous if you prefer.
There’s info on that page about how your contribution will be used.

🧵github.com/sponsors/Mike-…
Read 4 tweets
Jul 27
Here's the latest variant picture for the "Global - Other" countries, to early July.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant remained dominant, but fell to finish at 42%.

XFG.* "Stratus" grew strongly to 40%.

#COVID19 #GlobalOther #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
🧵 Image
This perspective excludes all the high-volume countries and regions that I routinely report on: Australia, NZ, Europe, Canada and the US. The remaining countries are aggregated into this report.
🧵
Here are the leading countries reporting the NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant.
🧵 Image
Read 6 tweets
Jul 27
Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to early July.

The XFG.* "Stratus" variant continued it’s dominance, growing to 58% frequency.

NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" was fairly flat, finishing at 14%.

#COVID19 #USA #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus
🧵 Image
Here are the leading US states reporting XFG.* "Stratus". New York state reported strong growth to 78%.
🧵 Image
Here are the leading US states reporting NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus". Besides the International Traveller samples, it has been most common in California and Colorado, although all are roughly flat or declining lately.
🧵 Image
Read 5 tweets
Jul 19
Here's the latest variant picture for the "Global - Other" countries, to late June.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant was fairly steady, finishing at 49%.

XFG.* "Stratus" grew strongly to 30%.

#COVID19 #GlobalOther #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
🧵 Image
The volatility is due to the ragged timing of submissions from various countries.

This perspective excludes all the high-volume countries and regions that I routinely report on: Australia, NZ, Europe, Canada and the US. The remaining countries are aggregated into this report.
🧵
Here are the leading countries reporting the NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant.
🧵 Image
Read 6 tweets
Jul 19
Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to late June.

The XFG.* "Stratus" variant grew to dominant at 40%, with LP.8.1.* at 28%.

Growth of the NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant is slower, at 16%.

#COVID19 #USA #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus
🧵 Image
For the US, the XFG.* "Stratus" variant shows a strong growth advantage of 5% per day (35% per week) over LP.8.1.*, with a crossover in mid-June.
🧵 Image
Here are the leading US states reporting XFG.* "Stratus". New York state leads at 59%. It has also been quite common among the International Traveller samples at 46%.
🧵 Image
Read 7 tweets
Jul 19
Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to late June.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" and XFG.* "Stratus" variants are battling for dominance in an unclear picture.

XFG.* "Stratus" looks to have the best growth rate.

#COVID19 #Global #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
🧵 Image
Here are the trends across all the International Traveller samples. From that perspective, XFG.* "Stratus" is dominant at 48%.

This dataset (mostly arrivals in the US and Japan) is arguably more random, as it is not skewed by sequencing volumes.
🧵 Image
Globally, the NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant is showing a steady growth advantage of 3.1% per day (22% per week) over the LP.8.1.* variant, with a crossover in late May.
🧵 Image
Read 8 tweets

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