Data Visualisation and Data Integration specialist - Melbourne, Australia
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This perspective excludes all the high-volume countries and regions that I routinely report on: Australia, NZ, Europe, Canada and the US. The remaining countries are aggregated into this report.
For the US, the XFG.* "Stratus" variant shows a strong growth advantage of 5.9% per day (41% per week) over LP.8.1.*, with a crossover in early June.
The XFG.* "Stratus" variant is also quite prevalent at around 19%. This is a novel scenario – until now I’ve only seen one or the other growing strongly in each country or region.
XFG.* "Stratus" seemed to have the best underlying momentum, until recently when samples from the US became less dominant.
Here’s the historical series that drives the risk estimate: Staff Cases (Weekly) in Residential Aged Care, to try to put this wave into context against the other waves since 2022.
The odd-looking bump in the JN.1.* + FLiRT group is down to a relatively large batch of samples collected across 3 days in late May, from Kazakhstan. The LF.7.1.3 sub-variant was dominant.
For the US, the XFG.* "Stratus" variant shows a strong growth advantage of 5.8% per day (41% per week) over LP.8.1.*, which predicts a crossover in early June (the data routinely lags).
The XFG.* "Stratus" variant is the likely next challenger as it has just become dominant globally. In Australia, XFG.* doubled since last week, to 9%.
The odd-looking bump in the JN.1.* + FLiRT group is down to a relatively large batch of samples collected across 3 days in late May, from Kazakhstan. The LF.7.1.3 sub-variant was dominant.
For the US, the XFG.* "Stratus" variant shows a strong growth advantage of 6% per day (42% per week) over LP.8.1.*, which predicts a crossover in early June (the data routinely lags).
Here are the trends across all the International Traveller samples, with a roughly similar picture. However both NB.1.8.1.* and XFG.* are a bit higher.
This perspective excludes all the high-volume countries and regions that I routinely report on: Australia, NZ, Europe, Canada and the US. The remaining countries are aggregated into this report.
For Europe (excluding the UK), the XFG.* variant shows an accelerating growth advantage of 4.8% per day (34% per week) over LP.8.1.*. That now predicts a crossover in early June (the data routinely lags).
For the US, the XFG.* variant shows a strong growth advantage of 6.1% per day (43% per week) over LP.8.1.*, which predicts a crossover in late May (the data routinely lags).
This is probably a more randomised sample than the "Global" aggregate of all samples submitted to GISAID, as those are dominated by the US and Canada
Note "Doppelgänger" is not an agreed variant nickname, nor should it be. There doesn’t seem to be anything stopping other sets of variants or recombinants from ending up the same way, as multiple Doppelgänger packs.
Nimbus accounted for 100% of 50-odd recent samples collected since mid-April. I haven’t seen that happen anywhere since the JN.1 wave in late 2023.
This perspective excludes all the high-volume countries and regions that I routinely report on: Australia, NZ, Europe, Canada and the US. The remaining countries are aggregated into this report.