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Data Visualisation and Data Integration specialist - Melbourne, Australia https://t.co/U523OiVeXr Support my projects by sponsoring me on Github
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Jun 28 7 tweets 2 min read
Here's the latest variant picture for the "Global - Other" countries, to early June.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant rose as high as 61%, but fell back in later samples to 26%.

XFG.* "Stratus" grew strongly to 49%.

#COVID19 #GlobalOther #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
🧵 Image This perspective excludes all the high-volume countries and regions that I routinely report on: Australia, NZ, Europe, Canada and the US. The remaining countries are aggregated into this report.
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Jun 28 6 tweets 2 min read
Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to early June.

The XFG.* "Stratus" variant grew strongly to dominance at 41%, while LP.8.1.* fell to 25%.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant grew steadily, to 20%.

#COVID19 #USA #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus
🧵 Image For the US, the XFG.* "Stratus" variant shows a strong growth advantage of 5.9% per day (41% per week) over LP.8.1.*, with a crossover in early June.
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Jun 28 8 tweets 2 min read
Here's the latest variant picture for Canada, to mid-June.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant grew strongly to dominance at around 36%. LP.8.1.* fell to around 28%.

#COVID19 #Canada #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
🧵 Image The XFG.* "Stratus" variant is also quite prevalent at around 19%. This is a novel scenario – until now I’ve only seen one or the other growing strongly in each country or region.
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Jun 28 8 tweets 3 min read
Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to early June.

The LP.8.1.*, NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" and XFG.* "Stratus" variants are battling for dominance in an unclear picture.

#COVID19 #Global #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
🧵 Image XFG.* "Stratus" seemed to have the best underlying momentum, until recently when samples from the US became less dominant.
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Jun 28 11 tweets 3 min read
Australian COVID-19 weekly stats update:

The risk estimate rose sharply again last week to 1.6% “Currently Infectious”, or 1-in-64. After 7 weeks, there’s still no peak in sight.

That implies a 38% chance that someone is infectious in a group of 30.

#COVID19 #Australia
🧵 Image Here’s the historical series that drives the risk estimate: Staff Cases (Weekly) in Residential Aged Care, to try to put this wave into context against the other waves since 2022.
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Jun 26 5 tweets 2 min read
I see @WHO have just added XFG.* (nicknamed "Stratus") as a "Variant Under Monitoring" (VUM).

I have it already dominant globally*, so only directing public health to pay attention to it now seems way too late to mitigate the waves it is now causing.
#COVID19 #XFG #Stratus
🧵 Here's their variant list, which links to their analysis on each VUM

🧵data.who.int/dashboards/cov…
Jun 22 8 tweets 3 min read
Here's the latest variant picture for the "Global - Other" countries, to early June.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant rose as high as 57%, but fell back in later samples to 29%.

The XFG.* "Stratus" variant grew to 27%.

#COVID19 #GlobalOther #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
🧵 Image The odd-looking bump in the JN.1.* + FLiRT group is down to a relatively large batch of samples collected across 3 days in late May, from Kazakhstan. The LF.7.1.3 sub-variant was dominant.

That will likely be smoothed out as more data arrives from other countries.
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Jun 22 6 tweets 2 min read
Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to early June.

The XFG.* "Stratus" variant grew strongly to 35%, while LP.8.1.* fell to 28%.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant grew strongly, to 24%.

#COVID19 #USA #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus
🧵 Image For the US, the XFG.* "Stratus" variant shows a strong growth advantage of 5.8% per day (41% per week) over LP.8.1.*, which predicts a crossover in early June (the data routinely lags).
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Jun 22 6 tweets 2 min read
Here's the latest variant picture for Australia, to early June.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant has continued to dominate at 53%, but growth appears to be slowing.

#COVID19 #Australia #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
🧵 Image The XFG.* "Stratus" variant is the likely next challenger as it has just become dominant globally. In Australia, XFG.* doubled since last week, to 9%.
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Jun 22 8 tweets 3 min read
Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to early June.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant has been struggling lately, at around 25%.

Growth of the XFG.* "Stratus" variant accelerated to 28%, and it is now dominant.

#COVID19 #Global #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
🧵 Image The odd-looking bump in the JN.1.* + FLiRT group is down to a relatively large batch of samples collected across 3 days in late May, from Kazakhstan. The LF.7.1.3 sub-variant was dominant.

That will likely be smoothed out as more data arrives from other countries.
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Jun 15 10 tweets 3 min read
Here's an animated map showing the spread of the PY.1 variant. The first sample was reported in Ontario, Canada in early March.

It was soon reported across North America and Europe and then spread globally. It has been most successful in India.
#SARSCoV2 #COVID19 #PY_1
🧵 Locations are approximate - typically country and state/province.
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Jun 14 7 tweets 2 min read
Here's the latest variant picture for the "Global - Other" countries, to late May.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant rose as high as 56%, but fell back in later samples to 37%.

The XFG.* "Stratus" variant grew to 28%.

#COVID19 #GlobalOther #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
🧵 This perspective excludes all the high-volume countries and regions that I routinely report on: Australia, NZ, Europe, Canada and the US. The remaining countries are aggregated into this report.
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Jun 14 7 tweets 3 min read
Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to late May.

The XFG.* "Stratus" variant grew strongly to 33%, overtaking the falling LP.8.1.* variant.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant is also present, but only at 13%.

#COVID19 #USA #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus
🧵 Image For the US, the XFG.* "Stratus" variant shows a strong growth advantage of 6% per day (42% per week) over LP.8.1.*, which predicts a crossover in early June (the data routinely lags).
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Jun 14 7 tweets 3 min read
Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to late May.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant is just dominant, but appears stalled at around 30%.

The XFG.* "Stratus" variant accelerated to 22%, on track to take over.

#COVID19 #Global #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
🧵 Image Here are the trends across all the International Traveller samples, with a roughly similar picture. However both NB.1.8.1.* and XFG.* are a bit higher.

This dataset (mostly arrivals in the US and Japan) is arguably more random, as it is not skewed by sequencing volumes.
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Jun 7 7 tweets 2 min read
Here's the latest variant picture for the "Global - Other" countries, to mid-May.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant is clearly dominant at 46%.

The XFG.* variant is another challenger, growing to 12%.

#COVID19 #GlobalOther #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG
🧵 Image This perspective excludes all the high-volume countries and regions that I routinely report on: Australia, NZ, Europe, Canada and the US. The remaining countries are aggregated into this report.
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Jun 7 5 tweets 2 min read
Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to late May.

The LP.8.1.* variant continued to dominate, at around 41% frequency.

The XFG.* variant grew strongly to 25%.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant is at 9%.

#COVID19 #EUR #LP_8_1 #XFG #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus
🧵 Image For Europe (excluding the UK), the XFG.* variant shows an accelerating growth advantage of 4.8% per day (34% per week) over LP.8.1.*. That now predicts a crossover in early June (the data routinely lags).
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Jun 7 6 tweets 2 min read
Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to late May.

The LP.8.1.* variant was down to 37%.

The next challenger looks like XFG.*, which grew strongly to 24%.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant is also growing, up to 16%.

#COVID19 #USA #XFG #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus
🧵 Image For the US, the XFG.* variant shows a strong growth advantage of 6.1% per day (43% per week) over LP.8.1.*, which predicts a crossover in late May (the data routinely lags).
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Jun 5 12 tweets 3 min read
I’ve added a couple of pages to my main SARS-CoV-2 variant analysis dataviz, digging into the data for International Travellers.

The first page shows the Lineage L2 trends across all the International Traveller samples.

#SARS_CoV_2 #International
🧵 Image This is probably a more randomised sample than the "Global" aggregate of all samples submitted to GISAID, as those are dominated by the US and Canada
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Jun 2 12 tweets 4 min read
XFP is the latest recombinant variant to be classified and incredibly it is the third of a recent set of recombinants with identical spike mutations. The earlier ones were XFJ and XFM.

I think of them as the "Doppelgängers".

#COVID19 #XFJ #XFM #XFP #Doppelgängers
🧵 Image Note "Doppelgänger" is not an agreed variant nickname, nor should it be. There doesn’t seem to be anything stopping other sets of variants or recombinants from ending up the same way, as multiple Doppelgänger packs.
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Jun 1 4 tweets 1 min read
Hong Kong was the first country to report a wave driven by the new NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus" variant.

Including it’s sub-variants, Nimbus has made a clean sweep of the landscape there.
#COVID19 #HongKong #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus
🧵 Image Nimbus accounted for 100% of 50-odd recent samples collected since mid-April. I haven’t seen that happen anywhere since the JN.1 wave in late 2023.
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Jun 1 7 tweets 2 min read
Here's the latest variant picture for my new " Global - Other" report, to mid-May.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant is clearly dominant at 43%.

The XFG.* variant is another challenger, growing to 9%.

#COVID19 #GlobalOther #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG
🧵 Image This perspective excludes all the high-volume countries and regions that I routinely report on: Australia, NZ, Europe, Canada and the US. The remaining countries are aggregated into this report.
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