With the LP.8.1.* variant on the way to dominance in most places, it is time to ponder which variant might drive the next wave.

The leading contenders at this point are LF.7.7.2, LF.7.9, NB.1.8.1, XEC.25.1 and XFH.

#COVID19 #LF_7_7_2 #LF_7_9 #NB_1_8_1 #XEC #XFH
🧵 I show them above using a log scale, so you can compare their growth rates vs the most common LP.8.1.* sub-lineage: LP.8.1.1.
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Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to early March.

The XEC.* variant remains dominant, but it has declined to around 31% frequency.

The LP.8.1.* variant grew to around 23%.

#COVID19 #EUR #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵 Note the recent sample volumes are very low, so this might not be a representative picture.
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Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to mid-March.

The LP.8.1.* variant has continued to grow steadily to around 49%.

The XEC.* variant continued to fall, down to around 19%.

#COVID19 #USA #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵 Here are the leading US states reporting LP.8.1.*.

Strong growth continued in Illinois to 70%, and there is strong growth also in New York and New Jersey to 54-56%.
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Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to mid- March.

The LP.8.1.* variant grew to around 38%, taking over dominance from the declining XEC.* variant.

#COVID19 #Global #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵 The LP.8.1.* variant shows an accelerating growth advantage of 2.5% per day (18% per week) over the dominant XEC.* variant, with a crossover in early March.
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Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to early March.

The XEC.* variant remains dominant, but it has declined to around 48% frequency.

The LP.8.1.* variant grew recently to 20%, passing the other contenders.

#COVID19 #EUR #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵 For Europe (excluding the UK) from January, the LP.8.1.* variant shows a growth advantage of 4.1% per day (29% per week) over the dominant XEC.* variant. That predicts a recent crossover (the data routinely lags).
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Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to early March.

The LP.8.1.* variant has continued to grow steadily to around 44%.

The XEC.* variant continued to fall, down to around 24%.

#COVID19 #USA #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵 Here are the leading US states reporting LP.8.1.*.

Strong growth continued in Illinois to 75%, and there is strong growth also in New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania to 45-55%.
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Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope.

The XEC.* variant has continued to decline, down to 34% by early March. Meanwhile the LP.8.1.* variant grew to around 28%.

#COVID19 #Global #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵 The LP.8.1.* variant shows a growth advantage of 2.3% per day (16% per week) over the dominant XEC.* variant. That predicts a crossover in mid-March (the data routinely lags).
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Here's the latest variant picture for the United Kingdom.

The XEC.* variant remains dominant, but growth has stalled at around 60% frequency.

The LP.8.1.* variant grew somewhat to 19% frequency, but then fell back to finish at around 15%.

#COVID19 #UK #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵 For the UK, the LP.8.1.* variant shows an accelerating growth advantage of 1.6% per day (11% per week) over the dominant XEC.* variant. But any crossover looks distant.
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Here's the latest variant picture for the United States.

The LP.8.1.* variant has continued to grow steadily to around 37%.

The XEC.* variant continued to fall, down to around 28%.

#COVID19 #USA #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵 Here are the leading US states reporting LP.8.1.*. Illinois has reported strong growth to 64%, and there is strong growth also in New York, New Jersey, Minnesota and California to around 40%.
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Here's the latest variant picture for the United States.

The XEC.* variant has been overtaken by the LP.8.1.* variant - growing steadily to around 34%.

There’s a rebound underway among the JN.1.* + FLiRT variants, led by the LB.1.3.1 lineage.

#COVID19 #USA #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵 Here are the leading US states reporting LP.8.1.*. Illinois has reported strong growth to 57%, and there is strong growth also in New York, New Jersey and California to around 40%.
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Here's the latest variant picture for the United States.

The XEC.* variant is still dominant, but looks like losing top spot shortly.

The LP.8.1.* variant has been growing steadily – up to around 31% and on track to take over from XEC.*.

#COVID19 #USA #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵 Here are the leading US states reporting LP.8.1.*. Illinois has reported continued strong growth to 70%, and there is strong growth also in New York, New Jersey and California to 30-36%.
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Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope.

The XEC.* variant has continued to decline, while the LP.8.1.* variant grew steadily to around 22%, overhauling the declining JN.1.* + DeFLuQE variants.

#COVID19 #Global #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵 The LP.8.1.* variant shows a steady growth advantage of 2.2% per day (15% per week) over the dominant XEC.* variant. A crossover looks probable in March.
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Here's the latest variant picture for the United States.

XEC.* variants are still dominant, but have fallen to around 32%.

The LP.8.1.* variants have been growing steadily – up to around 26% and on track to take over from XEC.*.

#COVID19 #USA #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵 Here are the leading US states reporting LP.8.1.*. Illinois has reported aggressive growth to 58%, and there is strong growth in New York and New Jersey to around 35%.
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Here's the latest variant picture for the United States.

XEC.* variants are still dominant, but have fallen to around 34%.

The LP.8.1.* variants have been growing steadily – up to around 24% and on track to take over from XEC.*.

#COVID19 #USA #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵 Here are the leading US states reporting LP.8.1.*. Illinois has reported aggressive growth to 55%, and there is strong growth in New York and California.
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Here's the latest variant picture for the United States.

XEC.* variants took over dominance from DeFLuQE variants in late December, but they are already under pressure.

The LP.8.1.* group of variants have emerged as a likely challenger, rising steadily to around 14%.
🧵 Here are the leading US states reporting LP.8.1.*. It is showing signs of growth, notably in New Jersey and Illinois.
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Here's the latest variant picture for the United States.

DeFLuQE variants are declining in frequency.

XEC.* growth has flattened out, at around 31%.

#COVID19 #USA #DeFLuQE #XEC
🧵 Here are the leading US states reporting LP.8.1. It is showing some signs of growth, notably in Rhode Island, New Jersey and California.

On the first chart above, LP.8.1 is included in the JN.1.* + FLiRT group, which does show some signs of a rebound.
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Australian COVID-19 weekly stats update:

The risk estimate was steady at 0.7% Currently Infectious, or 1-in-140. That implies a 19% chance that there is someone infectious in a group of 30.

The XEC wave looks relatively low and slow, although varying in some states.
🧵 There has been a wild rise in hospitalisations in Queensland, rising from 131 to 305 in the last 2 weeks. This is sharper growth than seen in any recent wave.
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With the XEC variant on the way to dominance in most places, and XEC waves starting to show in COVID metrics, it is time to ponder which variant will drive the next wave after XEC.

The leading contenders at this point are LP.8.1 and XEC.4.

#COVID19 #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵 I show them above using a log scale, so you can compare their growth rates vs OG XEC.

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States.

DeFLuQE variants are still dominant, but are now declining sharply in frequency.

XEC.* growth has resumed, to around 30%.

#COVID19 #USA #DeFLuQE #XEC
🧵 For the US, XEC.* had an accelerating growth advantage of 3.5% per day (25% per week) over the DeFLuQE variants, which predicts a crossover in late November.
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With the XEC variant on the way to dominance in most places, it is time to ponder which variant will drive the next wave after XEC.

The leading contenders at this point are LP.8.1 and XEC.4.

They are shown here using a log scale, to compare their growth rates vs OG XEC.
🧵 LP.8.1 is descended from FLiRT KP.1.1.3. LP.8 adds the Spike Q493E mutation (featured in FLuQE). Then LP.8.1 adds R190S, which is a predicted escape mutation.

LP.8.1 has been surging in Brazil, reaching 53% frequency. The US has reported steady growth, to 7%.
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The Provisional Mortality statistics have been updated by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), up to August 2024.

Here are the deaths where the underlying cause of death was certified by a doctor as COVID-19 (19,307 deaths).
🧵 Each individual death is represented by a single point, spread out across the years of the pandemic.

A major wave of COVID-19 deaths peaked in late June 2024, driven by the FLuQE KP.3.* variant.
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