Hong Kong is the first country to experience a wave driven by the new NB.1.8.1 variant.

From the Hong Kong surveillance report, wastewater is the most consistent indicator. That indicator is still trending upwards, to the highest level since mid-2023.
#COVID19 #HongKong
🧵 Analysis of the impact of the new NB.1.8.1 variant in Hong Kong might be informative for those awaiting that variant in other countries.

Here's my recent thread on that topic:

🧵skywriter.blue/pages/mikehone…

The Provisional Mortality statistics have been updated by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), up to January 2025.

Here are the deaths where the underlying cause of death was certified by a doctor as COVID-19 (22,357 deaths).
#COVID19 #Australia
🧵 Each individual death is represented by a single point, spread out across the years of the pandemic.

A relative low wave of COVID-19 deaths peaked in early January 2025, driven by the XEC.* variant.

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Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to late April.

The LP.8.1.* variant appears to have peaked and fell back to 54%.

#COVID19 #USA #LP_8_1 #XFG #XDV
🧵 The presumed next challengers are growing – XFG.* to 11% and XDV.* (led by NB.1.8.1) to 6%.
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Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to late April.

Growth of the LP.8.1.* variant is holding at around 39%.

XDV.* (led by NB.1.8.1) looks like the next challenger, rising steadily to 13%

#COVID19 #Global #LP_8_1 #XDV #NB_1_8_1
🧵 Globally, the XDV.* variant clan (led by NB.1.8.1) is showing a strong but slowing growth advantage of 5.1% per day (36% per week) over the dominant LP.8.1.* variants. That now predicts a crossover in late May.

Strong growth advantages point to higher waves than for LP.8.1.*.
🧵

With the LP.8.1.* variant dominant from the global perspective, it is time to ponder which variant might drive the next wave.

The leading contenders at this point are XDV.* (led by NB.1.8.1), and XFG.*.
#COVID19 #NB_1_8_1 #XFG
🧵 I show them above using a log scale, so you can compare their growth rates vs the dominant LP.8.1.*. Note the recent sample volumes are quite low, so the right side of this chart might not be a representative picture.
🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to mid-April.

The LP.8.1.* variant growth continued to around 61%, but may have peaked.

The presumed next challengers – XFG.* and XDV.* (led by NB.1.8.1) are still below 5%.

#COVID19 #USA #LP_8_1 #XFG #XDV
🧵
For the US, the XFG.* variant shows a strong growth advantage of 5.9% per day (41% per week) over LP.8.1.*, which predicts a crossover in late May.
🧵

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to late April.

Growth of the LP.8.1.* variant appears to have peaked, and fell to around 39%.

XDV.* (led by NB.1.8.1) looks like the next challenger, rising strongly to 11%

#COVID19 #Global #LP_8_1 #XDV
🧵 Globally, the XDV.* variant clan (led by NB.1.8.1) is showing a strong growth advantage of 5.5% per day (39% per week) over the dominant LP.8.1.* variants. That predicts a crossover in mid-May.

That could point to higher waves than those seen for LP.8.1.*.
🧵

With the LP.8.1.* variant dominant from the global perspective, it is time to ponder which variant might drive the next wave.

The leading contenders at this point are XDV.* (led by NB.1.8.1), and XFG.*.
#COVID19 #NB_1_8_1 #XFG
🧵 With the splintering of XFG.* into sub-lineages, I have switched my analysis to my variant “L2” groups.

I show them here using a log scale, so you can compare their growth rates vs the dominant LP.8.1.*. 🧵

I found some data on the illness levels of workers in the Australian health sector.

Here are the trends claims for staff in the Health Care and Social Assistance industry in NSW, affected by Infectious and Parasitic Diseases.

#COVID19 #Australia #NSW #HealthCareWorkers
🧵 It seems clear the dramatic change from late 2021 is almost all COVID-19. It closely follows the familiar patterns for the known waves in that period, and is a huge deviation, even vs mid-2021.
🧵

Over the weekend I updated the dataviz and all the pdf reports for my usual weekly SARS-CoV-2 variant analysis (after a break over Easter), but I’ve run out of time to write any analysis.

Here’s the global report link, others in the thread below:

🧵mike-honey.github.io/covid-19-genom… Australia:

🧵mike-honey.github.io/covid-19-genom…

Earlier this month the XFL variant was defined, setting a new benchmark in SARS-CoV-2 evolution: a "quadruple-recombinant", meaning it’s evolution includes 3 recombinant ancestors.

It’s a stark example of how we are giving this virus every opportunity to evolve.
#COVID19 #XFL
🧵 The diagram summarizes it’s evolutionary journey, which includes 3 ancestor recombinants and several other sub-lineages before XEC.18 and XEU recombined to form XFL.
🧵

With the LP.8.1.* variant on the way to dominance in most places, it is time to ponder which variant might drive the next wave.

The leading contenders at this point are LF.7.7.2, NB.1.8.1, XFG and XFJ.

#COVID19 #LF_7_7_2 #NB_1_8_1 #XFG #XFJ
🧵 I show them above using a log scale, so you can compare their growth rates vs the most common LP.8.1.* sub-lineage: LP.8.1.1. Note the recent sample volumes are quite low, so the right side of this chart might not be a representative picture.
🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to mid-March.

The LP.8.1.* variant growth resumed, up to around 54%.

The XEC.* variant has declined to around 18%.

#COVID19 #USA #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵 Here are the leading US states reporting LP.8.1.*.

Strong growth continued in Illinois to around 80%, and there is strong growth also in New York, New Jersey and California to around 55%.
🧵

With the LP.8.1.* variant on the way to dominance in most places, it is time to ponder which variant might drive the next wave.

The leading contenders at this point are LF.7.7.2, LF.7.9, NB.1.8.1, XEC.25.1 XFH and new XFJ.

#COVID19 #LF_7_7_2 #LF_7_9 #NB_1_8_1 #XEC #XFH #XFJ
🧵 I show them above using a log scale, so you can compare their growth rates vs the most common LP.8.1.* sub-lineage: LP.8.1.1. There are more recent samples available, but the frequency analysis becomes increasingly distorted due to low volumes and patchy coverage.
🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to mid-March.

The LP.8.1.* variant growth might be wobbling a bit, at around 47%.

The XEC.* variant has declined to around 21%.

#COVID19 #USA #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵 Here are the leading US states reporting LP.8.1.*.

Strong growth continued in Illinois to around 70%, and there is strong growth also in New York and New Jersey to 50-60%.
🧵

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to mid- March.

Growth of the LP.8.1.* variant seemed to plateau at around 34%, with the XEC.* variant declining to 30%. Recent sample sizes are smaller so this might not be representative.

#COVID19 #Global #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵 The LP.8.1.* variant shows a slowing growth advantage of 2.3% per day (16% per week) over the dominant XEC.* variant, with a crossover in early March.
🧵

With the LP.8.1.* variant on the way to dominance in most places, it is time to ponder which variant might drive the next wave.

The leading contenders at this point are LF.7.7.2, LF.7.9, NB.1.8.1, XEC.25.1 and XFH.

#COVID19 #LF_7_7_2 #LF_7_9 #NB_1_8_1 #XEC #XFH
🧵 I show them above using a log scale, so you can compare their growth rates vs the most common LP.8.1.* sub-lineage: LP.8.1.1.
🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to early March.

The XEC.* variant remains dominant, but it has declined to around 31% frequency.

The LP.8.1.* variant grew to around 23%.

#COVID19 #EUR #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵 Note the recent sample volumes are very low, so this might not be a representative picture.
🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to mid-March.

The LP.8.1.* variant has continued to grow steadily to around 49%.

The XEC.* variant continued to fall, down to around 19%.

#COVID19 #USA #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵 Here are the leading US states reporting LP.8.1.*.

Strong growth continued in Illinois to 70%, and there is strong growth also in New York and New Jersey to 54-56%.
🧵

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to mid- March.

The LP.8.1.* variant grew to around 38%, taking over dominance from the declining XEC.* variant.

#COVID19 #Global #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵 The LP.8.1.* variant shows an accelerating growth advantage of 2.5% per day (18% per week) over the dominant XEC.* variant, with a crossover in early March.
🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to early March.

The XEC.* variant remains dominant, but it has declined to around 48% frequency.

The LP.8.1.* variant grew recently to 20%, passing the other contenders.

#COVID19 #EUR #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵 For Europe (excluding the UK) from January, the LP.8.1.* variant shows a growth advantage of 4.1% per day (29% per week) over the dominant XEC.* variant. That predicts a recent crossover (the data routinely lags).
🧵