Latest Twitter Threads by @Mike_Honey_ on Thread Reader App

Jul 19 • 6 tweets • 2 min read

Here's the latest variant picture for the "Global - Other" countries, to late June.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant was fairly steady, finishing at 49%.

XFG.* "Stratus" grew strongly to 30%.

#COVID19 #GlobalOther #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
🧵

The volatility is due to the ragged timing of submissions from various countries.

This perspective excludes all the high-volume countries and regions that I routinely report on: Australia, NZ, Europe, Canada and the US. The remaining countries are aggregated into this report.
🧵

Jul 19 • 7 tweets • 3 min read

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to late June.

The XFG.* "Stratus" variant grew to dominant at 40%, with LP.8.1.* at 28%.

Growth of the NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant is slower, at 16%.

#COVID19 #USA #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus
🧵

For the US, the XFG.* "Stratus" variant shows a strong growth advantage of 5% per day (35% per week) over LP.8.1.*, with a crossover in mid-June.
🧵

Jul 19 • 8 tweets • 3 min read

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to late June.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" and XFG.* "Stratus" variants are battling for dominance in an unclear picture.

XFG.* "Stratus" looks to have the best growth rate.

#COVID19 #Global #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
🧵

Here are the trends across all the International Traveller samples. From that perspective, XFG.* "Stratus" is dominant at 48%.

This dataset (mostly arrivals in the US and Japan) is arguably more random, as it is not skewed by sequencing volumes.
🧵

Jul 13 • 6 tweets • 2 min read

Here's the latest variant picture for the "Global - Other" countries, to mid-June.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant was steady at 51%.

XFG.* "Stratus" grew to 21%.

#COVID19 #GlobalOther #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
🧵

Jul 13 • 7 tweets • 3 min read

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to late June.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" and XFG.* "Stratus" variants are battling for dominance in an unclear picture. So far they have each been succeeding in different countries.

#COVID19 #Global #Nimbus #Stratus
🧵

Here are the trends across all the International Traveller samples. From that perspective, XFG.* "Stratus" is dominant at 45%.

This dataset (mostly arrivals in the US and Japan) is arguably more random, as it is not skewed by sequencing volumes.
🧵

Jul 7 • 6 tweets • 2 min read

Here's the latest variant picture for the "Global - Other" countries, to early June.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant grew again to 53%.

XFG.* "Stratus" fell to 17%.

#COVID19 #GlobalOther #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
🧵

Jul 7 • 6 tweets • 2 min read

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to mid-June.

The XFG.* "Stratus" variant looks less dominant as more data has been shared, down to 33%, with LP.8.1.* at 31%.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant finished at 14%.

#COVID19 #USA #XFG #Stratus
🧵

For the US, the XFG.* "Stratus" variant shows a strong growth advantage of 5.4% per day (38% per week) over LP.8.1.*, with a crossover in early June.
🧵

Jul 5 • 7 tweets • 3 min read

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to mid-June.

The LP.8.1.*, NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" and XFG.* "Stratus" variants are battling for dominance in an unclear picture.

#COVID19 #Global #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
🧵

Here are the trends across all the International Traveller samples. From that perspective, XFG.* "Stratus" remains dominant, at 50%.

This dataset (mostly arrivals in the US and Japan) is arguably more random, as it is not skewed by sequencing volumes.
🧵

Jul 4 • 10 tweets • 3 min read

Australian Influenza and RSV cases update:

Reported Influenza cases continued to rise for June, but at a steady pace. Up to April cases were running at "flunami" pace, it now looks like either a lower or later peak than the recent "big" years.

#Influenza #RSV #Australia
🧵

The trend for Influenza case growth in Victoria is significantly higher than the national picture. It is still tracking above the record-setting wave of 2024.
🧵

Jun 28 • 7 tweets • 2 min read

Here's the latest variant picture for the "Global - Other" countries, to early June.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant rose as high as 61%, but fell back in later samples to 26%.

XFG.* "Stratus" grew strongly to 49%.

#COVID19 #GlobalOther #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
🧵

This perspective excludes all the high-volume countries and regions that I routinely report on: Australia, NZ, Europe, Canada and the US. The remaining countries are aggregated into this report.
🧵

Jun 28 • 6 tweets • 2 min read

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to early June.

The XFG.* "Stratus" variant grew strongly to dominance at 41%, while LP.8.1.* fell to 25%.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant grew steadily, to 20%.

#COVID19 #USA #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus
🧵

For the US, the XFG.* "Stratus" variant shows a strong growth advantage of 5.9% per day (41% per week) over LP.8.1.*, with a crossover in early June.
🧵

Jun 28 • 8 tweets • 2 min read

Here's the latest variant picture for Canada, to mid-June.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant grew strongly to dominance at around 36%. LP.8.1.* fell to around 28%.

#COVID19 #Canada #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
🧵

The XFG.* "Stratus" variant is also quite prevalent at around 19%. This is a novel scenario – until now I’ve only seen one or the other growing strongly in each country or region.
🧵

Jun 28 • 8 tweets • 3 min read

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to early June.

The LP.8.1.*, NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" and XFG.* "Stratus" variants are battling for dominance in an unclear picture.

#COVID19 #Global #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
🧵

XFG.* "Stratus" seemed to have the best underlying momentum, until recently when samples from the US became less dominant.
🧵

Jun 28 • 11 tweets • 3 min read

Australian COVID-19 weekly stats update:

The risk estimate rose sharply again last week to 1.6% “Currently Infectious”, or 1-in-64. After 7 weeks, there’s still no peak in sight.

That implies a 38% chance that someone is infectious in a group of 30.

#COVID19 #Australia
🧵

Here’s the historical series that drives the risk estimate: Staff Cases (Weekly) in Residential Aged Care, to try to put this wave into context against the other waves since 2022.
🧵

Jun 26 • 5 tweets • 2 min read

I see @WHO have just added XFG.* (nicknamed "Stratus") as a "Variant Under Monitoring" (VUM).

I have it already dominant globally*, so only directing public health to pay attention to it now seems way too late to mitigate the waves it is now causing.
#COVID19 #XFG #Stratus
🧵

https://twitter.com/Mike_Honey_/status/1936609892242272346

Here's their variant list, which links to their analysis on each VUM

🧵data.who.int/dashboards/cov…

Jun 22 • 8 tweets • 3 min read

Here's the latest variant picture for the "Global - Other" countries, to early June.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant rose as high as 57%, but fell back in later samples to 29%.

The XFG.* "Stratus" variant grew to 27%.

#COVID19 #GlobalOther #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
🧵

The odd-looking bump in the JN.1.* + FLiRT group is down to a relatively large batch of samples collected across 3 days in late May, from Kazakhstan. The LF.7.1.3 sub-variant was dominant.

That will likely be smoothed out as more data arrives from other countries.
🧵

Jun 22 • 6 tweets • 2 min read

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to early June.

The XFG.* "Stratus" variant grew strongly to 35%, while LP.8.1.* fell to 28%.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant grew strongly, to 24%.

#COVID19 #USA #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus
🧵

For the US, the XFG.* "Stratus" variant shows a strong growth advantage of 5.8% per day (41% per week) over LP.8.1.*, which predicts a crossover in early June (the data routinely lags).
🧵

Jun 22 • 6 tweets • 2 min read

Here's the latest variant picture for Australia, to early June.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant has continued to dominate at 53%, but growth appears to be slowing.

#COVID19 #Australia #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
🧵

The XFG.* "Stratus" variant is the likely next challenger as it has just become dominant globally. In Australia, XFG.* doubled since last week, to 9%.
🧵

Jun 22 • 8 tweets • 3 min read

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to early June.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant has been struggling lately, at around 25%.

Growth of the XFG.* "Stratus" variant accelerated to 28%, and it is now dominant.

#COVID19 #Global #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
🧵

Jun 15 • 10 tweets • 3 min read

Here's an animated map showing the spread of the PY.1 variant. The first sample was reported in Ontario, Canada in early March.

It was soon reported across North America and Europe and then spread globally. It has been most successful in India.
#SARSCoV2 #COVID19 #PY_1
🧵

Locations are approximate - typically country and state/province.
🧵

Jun 14 • 7 tweets • 2 min read

Here's the latest variant picture for the "Global - Other" countries, to late May.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant rose as high as 56%, but fell back in later samples to 37%.

The XFG.* "Stratus" variant grew to 28%.

#COVID19 #GlobalOther #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
🧵 This perspective excludes all the high-volume countries and regions that I routinely report on: Australia, NZ, Europe, Canada and the US. The remaining countries are aggregated into this report.
🧵

Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll