Here's the latest variant picture for the United States.

DeFLuQE variants are declining in frequency.

XEC.* growth has flattened out, at around 31%.

#COVID19 #USA #DeFLuQE #XEC
🧵 Here are the leading US states reporting LP.8.1. It is showing some signs of growth, notably in Rhode Island, New Jersey and California.

On the first chart above, LP.8.1 is included in the JN.1.* + FLiRT group, which does show some signs of a rebound.
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Australian COVID-19 weekly stats update:

The risk estimate was steady at 0.7% Currently Infectious, or 1-in-140. That implies a 19% chance that there is someone infectious in a group of 30.

The XEC wave looks relatively low and slow, although varying in some states.
🧵 There has been a wild rise in hospitalisations in Queensland, rising from 131 to 305 in the last 2 weeks. This is sharper growth than seen in any recent wave.
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With the XEC variant on the way to dominance in most places, and XEC waves starting to show in COVID metrics, it is time to ponder which variant will drive the next wave after XEC.

The leading contenders at this point are LP.8.1 and XEC.4.

#COVID19 #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵 I show them above using a log scale, so you can compare their growth rates vs OG XEC.

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States.

DeFLuQE variants are still dominant, but are now declining sharply in frequency.

XEC.* growth has resumed, to around 30%.

#COVID19 #USA #DeFLuQE #XEC
🧵 For the US, XEC.* had an accelerating growth advantage of 3.5% per day (25% per week) over the DeFLuQE variants, which predicts a crossover in late November.
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With the XEC variant on the way to dominance in most places, it is time to ponder which variant will drive the next wave after XEC.

The leading contenders at this point are LP.8.1 and XEC.4.

They are shown here using a log scale, to compare their growth rates vs OG XEC.
🧵 LP.8.1 is descended from FLiRT KP.1.1.3. LP.8 adds the Spike Q493E mutation (featured in FLuQE). Then LP.8.1 adds R190S, which is a predicted escape mutation.

LP.8.1 has been surging in Brazil, reaching 53% frequency. The US has reported steady growth, to 7%.
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The Provisional Mortality statistics have been updated by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), up to August 2024.

Here are the deaths where the underlying cause of death was certified by a doctor as COVID-19 (19,307 deaths).
🧵 Each individual death is represented by a single point, spread out across the years of the pandemic.

A major wave of COVID-19 deaths peaked in late June 2024, driven by the FLuQE KP.3.* variant.
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With the XEC variant on the way to dominance in most places, and XEC waves starting to show in COVID metrics, it is time to ponder which variant will drive the next wave after XEC.

The leading contender at this point is LP.8.1. MC.10.2 and NP.1 have fallen by the wayside.
🧵 They are shown above using a log scale, so you can compare their growth rates vs OG XEC.
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With the XEC variant on the way to dominance in most places, and XEC waves starting to show in COVID metrics, it is time to ponder which variant will drive the next wave after XEC.

Here are the leading contenders: LP.8.1, MC.10.2, MV.1, and XEC.4.
🧵 They are shown above using a log scale, so you can compare their growth rates vs OG XEC.
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With the XEC variant on the way to dominance in most places, and XEC waves starting to show in COVID metrics, it is time to ponder which variant will drive the next wave after XEC.

Here are the leading contenders: MV.1, LP.8, XEC.4 and XEM.
🧵 They are shown above using a log scale, so you can compare their growth rates vs OG XEC.
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I've been pondering the June update from the Australian Actuaries MWG, confirming that COVID continues to be a wildcard factor in their forecasts (+79% to June).

The takeaway should be that COVID will continue to defy prediction, as long as it is unconstrained.
🧵 Here's their latest report with more detail:

🧵actuaries.digital/2024/09/12/mor…

Here are the 291,118 Excess Deaths for Spain, comparing 2015-2019 against 2020-2024 (up to July). Each individual Excess Death is represented by a single point, spread out across the weeks and years.
🧵 COVID-19 infections are a direct risk factor for many other issues driving mortality, and also have an indirect impact on health system capacity & function, and general population health.
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Here are the 291,118 Excess Deaths for the UK, comparing 2015-2019 against 2020-2024 (up to July). Each individual Excess Death is represented by a single point, spread out across the weeks and years.
🧵 COVID-19 infections are a direct risk factor for many other issues driving mortality, and also have an indirect impact on health system capacity & functioning, and general population health.
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Here are the 84,567 Excess Deaths for Canada, comparing 2015-2019 against 2020-2024 (up to April). Each individual Excess Death is represented by a single point, spread out across the weeks and years.
🧵 COVID-19 infections are a direct risk factor for many other issues driving mortality, and also have an indirect impact on health system capacity & functioning, and general population health.
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Here are Excess Deaths for Australia, comparing 2015-2019 against 2020 onwards. Each individual excess death is represented by a single point, spread out across the weeks and years.
🧵 COVID-19 infections are a direct risk factor for many other issues driving mortality, and also have an indirect impact on health system capacity & functioning, and general population health.
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With the XEC variant on the way to dominance in most places, and XEC waves starting to show, it is time to ponder which variant will drive the next wave after XEC.

Here are the leading contenders: MV.1, XEC.2, XEM and XEK. They are shown here using a log scale, vs OG XEC.
🧵 MV.1 is descended from JN.1.49.1 via MB.1.1.1. MV.1 adds the Spike:K478T mutation.

MV.1 showed some early success in India, reaching 22% frequency. Data from India has been sparse and lagging. The more recent data from Singapore shows it at an impressive 39% frequency.
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Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope.

Growth of the DeFLuQE variants may have stalled.

Growth of XEC.*, also appears to have stalled at around 17%.
🧵 Pressure on those 2 leaders is coming from a spread of challengers, including MV.1, XEM and XEK. I will cover these in a later thread.
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Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope.

DeFLuQE variants continue to grow, dominating FLiRT and FLuQE variants.

FLiRT and FLuQE variants have been overtaken by XEC.*, growing to around 17%.
🧵 XEC.* variants are showing a slowing growth advantage of 3.4% per day (24% per week) over the dominant DeFLuQE variants, which are still growing themselves. That predicts a crossover sometime in November.
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With the XEC variant on the way to dominance in most places, and XEC waves starting to show in COVID metrics, it is time to ponder which variant will drive the next wave after XEC.

The leading contenders at this point appear to be the sub-lineages XEC.1 and XEC.2.
🧵 They are compared here using a log scale, so you can see their growth rates are respectable against OG XEC.
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The Provisional Mortality statistics have been updated by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), up to June 2024.

COVID-19 deaths quickened during June 2024 as the FLuQE KP.3.* wave began to have an impact.
🧵 These are the deaths where the underlying cause of death was certified by a doctor as COVID-19 (18,557 deaths). Each individual death is represented by a single point, spread out across the years of the pandemic.
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This thread by @SolidEvidence gives an update on the Bavarian BA.5 chronic case that has apparently been evolving in an 18-month-plus infection.

It was detected in wastewater samples by @LongDesertTrain.

I will try to add some context on the sharing of wastewater samples.
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https://twitter.com/SolidEvidence/status/1841557426296013029

Sharing of wastewater samples via GISAID makes discoveries like this by expert variant trackers like Marc and Ryan possible. But the data is extremely sparse.

Here's a map of all the wastewater samples shared via GISAID this year.
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Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope.

DeFLuQE variants (KP.3.1.1 and descendants) continue to dominate FLiRT and FLuQE variants.

XEC.* is now visible and starting to grow.
🧵 Here are the leading countries reporting XEC.*. There is strong growth reported from Germany, France, the Netherlands and Denmark.
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