Latest Twitter Threads by @Mike_Honey_ on Thread Reader App

Oct 26 • 8 tweets • 3 min read

I’ve used WA Health’s COVID-19 wastewater surveillance page to estimate the number of infections of BA.3.2.

I estimate ~400 BA.3.2.* infections in Perth for the latest week, and ~4,600 over the 9 weeks since BA.3.2.* was first detected.

#BA_3_2 #Australia #WA #Perth
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WA Health revamped their dashboard using Power BI, so it is more interactive now and a bit easier to get precise values. However they paused the wastewater variant analysis for 3 weeks, so I’ve estimated the values in that gap.

🧵 health.wa.gov.au/articles/n_r/r…

Sep 14 • 15 tweets • 4 min read

With the NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus" and XFG.* "Stratus" variants carving up dominance around the globe, it is time to ponder which variant might drive the next wave.

The leading contenders at this point are PY.1.1.1 and XFV.

#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #PY_1_1_1 #XFV #XFZ
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Both are at low frequencies globally, but are already remarkably widespread geographically. New entrant XGA might be flattered by the low recent sample volumes.

I added some other contenders for monitoring, although they are less significant: XEC.27.2(.1), XFW, XFY and XFZ.
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Aug 31 • 6 tweets • 2 min read

For context, using Figure 17 we can estimate the number of infections of BA.3.2.

I estimate ~25K BA.3.2.* infections in Perth that week.
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https://twitter.com/Mike_Honey_/status/1961323697861443726

If you match the current level of the navy blue line to the cases/100K scale on the left, it looks like ~2.5K cases per 100K population (from all variants).

Perth's population is 2.3M, so that scales up to ~58K cases.
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Aug 16 • 17 tweets • 5 min read

[heavy sigh]

With the NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" and XFG.* "Stratus" variants carving up dominance around the globe, it is time to ponder which variant might drive the next wave.

The leading contenders at this point are PY.1.1.1 and XFV.

#COVID19 #PY_1_1_1 #XFV
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PY.1.1.1 is descended from "FLiRT" variant LF.7.9.1. PY.1.1 added the K679R mutation, then PY.1.1.1 added A435S (same mutation that characterised NB.1.8.1).

PY.1.1.1 is presumed to have originated from India, rising sharply to 14% frequency there in June.
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Aug 2 • 4 tweets • 1 min read

Here’s the July 2025 update I just sent to my GitHub Sponsors.
I continued to share results from these projects, here and on other social media platforms
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🧵mike-honey.github.io/sponsors/GitHu…

Jul 27 • 6 tweets • 2 min read

Here's the latest variant picture for the "Global - Other" countries, to early July.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant remained dominant, but fell to finish at 42%.

XFG.* "Stratus" grew strongly to 40%.

#COVID19 #GlobalOther #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
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This perspective excludes all the high-volume countries and regions that I routinely report on: Australia, NZ, Europe, Canada and the US. The remaining countries are aggregated into this report.
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Jul 27 • 5 tweets • 2 min read

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to early July.

The XFG.* "Stratus" variant continued it’s dominance, growing to 58% frequency.

NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" was fairly flat, finishing at 14%.

#COVID19 #USA #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus
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Here are the leading US states reporting XFG.* "Stratus". New York state reported strong growth to 78%.
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Jul 19 • 6 tweets • 2 min read

Here's the latest variant picture for the "Global - Other" countries, to late June.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant was fairly steady, finishing at 49%.

XFG.* "Stratus" grew strongly to 30%.

#COVID19 #GlobalOther #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
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The volatility is due to the ragged timing of submissions from various countries.

This perspective excludes all the high-volume countries and regions that I routinely report on: Australia, NZ, Europe, Canada and the US. The remaining countries are aggregated into this report.
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Jul 19 • 7 tweets • 3 min read

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to late June.

The XFG.* "Stratus" variant grew to dominant at 40%, with LP.8.1.* at 28%.

Growth of the NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant is slower, at 16%.

#COVID19 #USA #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus
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For the US, the XFG.* "Stratus" variant shows a strong growth advantage of 5% per day (35% per week) over LP.8.1.*, with a crossover in mid-June.
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Jul 19 • 8 tweets • 3 min read

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to late June.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" and XFG.* "Stratus" variants are battling for dominance in an unclear picture.

XFG.* "Stratus" looks to have the best growth rate.

#COVID19 #Global #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
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Here are the trends across all the International Traveller samples. From that perspective, XFG.* "Stratus" is dominant at 48%.

This dataset (mostly arrivals in the US and Japan) is arguably more random, as it is not skewed by sequencing volumes.
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Jul 13 • 6 tweets • 2 min read

Here's the latest variant picture for the "Global - Other" countries, to mid-June.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant was steady at 51%.

XFG.* "Stratus" grew to 21%.

#COVID19 #GlobalOther #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
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Jul 13 • 7 tweets • 3 min read

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to late June.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" and XFG.* "Stratus" variants are battling for dominance in an unclear picture. So far they have each been succeeding in different countries.

#COVID19 #Global #Nimbus #Stratus
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Here are the trends across all the International Traveller samples. From that perspective, XFG.* "Stratus" is dominant at 45%.

This dataset (mostly arrivals in the US and Japan) is arguably more random, as it is not skewed by sequencing volumes.
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Jul 7 • 6 tweets • 2 min read

Here's the latest variant picture for the "Global - Other" countries, to early June.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant grew again to 53%.

XFG.* "Stratus" fell to 17%.

#COVID19 #GlobalOther #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
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Jul 7 • 6 tweets • 2 min read

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to mid-June.

The XFG.* "Stratus" variant looks less dominant as more data has been shared, down to 33%, with LP.8.1.* at 31%.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant finished at 14%.

#COVID19 #USA #XFG #Stratus
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For the US, the XFG.* "Stratus" variant shows a strong growth advantage of 5.4% per day (38% per week) over LP.8.1.*, with a crossover in early June.
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Jul 5 • 7 tweets • 3 min read

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to mid-June.

The LP.8.1.*, NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" and XFG.* "Stratus" variants are battling for dominance in an unclear picture.

#COVID19 #Global #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
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Here are the trends across all the International Traveller samples. From that perspective, XFG.* "Stratus" remains dominant, at 50%.

This dataset (mostly arrivals in the US and Japan) is arguably more random, as it is not skewed by sequencing volumes.
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Jul 4 • 10 tweets • 3 min read

Australian Influenza and RSV cases update:

Reported Influenza cases continued to rise for June, but at a steady pace. Up to April cases were running at "flunami" pace, it now looks like either a lower or later peak than the recent "big" years.

#Influenza #RSV #Australia
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The trend for Influenza case growth in Victoria is significantly higher than the national picture. It is still tracking above the record-setting wave of 2024.
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Jun 28 • 7 tweets • 2 min read

Here's the latest variant picture for the "Global - Other" countries, to early June.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant rose as high as 61%, but fell back in later samples to 26%.

XFG.* "Stratus" grew strongly to 49%.

#COVID19 #GlobalOther #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
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This perspective excludes all the high-volume countries and regions that I routinely report on: Australia, NZ, Europe, Canada and the US. The remaining countries are aggregated into this report.
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Jun 28 • 6 tweets • 2 min read

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to early June.

The XFG.* "Stratus" variant grew strongly to dominance at 41%, while LP.8.1.* fell to 25%.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant grew steadily, to 20%.

#COVID19 #USA #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus
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For the US, the XFG.* "Stratus" variant shows a strong growth advantage of 5.9% per day (41% per week) over LP.8.1.*, with a crossover in early June.
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Jun 28 • 8 tweets • 2 min read

Here's the latest variant picture for Canada, to mid-June.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant grew strongly to dominance at around 36%. LP.8.1.* fell to around 28%.

#COVID19 #Canada #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
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The XFG.* "Stratus" variant is also quite prevalent at around 19%. This is a novel scenario – until now I’ve only seen one or the other growing strongly in each country or region.
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Jun 28 • 8 tweets • 3 min read

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to early June.

The LP.8.1.*, NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" and XFG.* "Stratus" variants are battling for dominance in an unclear picture.

#COVID19 #Global #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
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XFG.* "Stratus" seemed to have the best underlying momentum, until recently when samples from the US became less dominant.
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Jun 28 • 11 tweets • 3 min read

Australian COVID-19 weekly stats update:

The risk estimate rose sharply again last week to 1.6% “Currently Infectious”, or 1-in-64. After 7 weeks, there’s still no peak in sight.

That implies a 38% chance that someone is infectious in a group of 30.

#COVID19 #Australia
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Here’s the historical series that drives the risk estimate: Staff Cases (Weekly) in Residential Aged Care, to try to put this wave into context against the other waves since 2022.
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