Moderna vax starts at 30% VE against Omicron (ignoring first 14 days) and becomes negative at 6 months (reported as zero, see below). Booster increases to 52% unadjusted VE which declines to 36% after 2-3 months. medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
The authors arbitrarily set the lower bound at zero for calculating VE, even though the odds ratio is negative at 6 months. Image
Image
"while VE of 2 doses of mRNA-1273 against infection with delta is high and wanes slowly, the 2-dose VE against omicron infection is poor and wanes quickly, providing minimal protection of 30% within 3 months of vaccination and virtually none thereafter."
"while the 3-dose VE against infection with delta is high and durable, that against omicron is lower."
"this study of mRNA-1273 found waning 2-dose VE against delta, high VE 3-dose VE against delta, and low 2-dose and 3-dose VE against omicron. Protection against omicron wanes within 3 months after dose 2, suggesting a need for a shorter interval between second and booster doses."

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More from @ToddZywicki

11 Jan
I've referenced this paper on breakthrough infections in SF multiple times since it appeared. It is now published with lots of additional detail. This is the smoking gun that shows on a micro level the vax select for more vax-evasive variants. nature.com/articles/s4156…
To summarize the simple logic--natural selection consists of 3 elements: (1) variation, (2) selection, (3) replication.
Anybody who gets infected can create variation, regardless of whether vaxxed, partially vaxxed, unvaxxed, or boosted. Most variations don't replicate widely because at any given time the current version of the virus is best adapted to its environment so adaptations are less fit.
Read 13 tweets
11 Jan
So the story is Walensky is just a "bad communicator." But how would you like to be the one who has to communicate the new talking points. "Yeah, well we've been telling you for a year that getting vaccinated will prevent you from getting infected and transmitting Covid. Which...
turns out we were wrong about that. While it might reduce your chances of getting Covid, it won't reduce transmission if you get it. Well, turns out we were wrong about that too. With Omicron you are actually MORE likely to contract and transmit Covid. But trust us...
we are certain that even though getting vaxxed will make you more likely to contract and transmit Covid than someone who is unvaxxed, we know it will protect you from serious illness. Trust us. We are certain it is safe in both the short term and long term. So get your booster!
Read 8 tweets
8 Jan
If you are still trying to tell me that mass vaccination will reduces infections and transmission and will bring about the end of the global pandemic then you are either an idiot or a liar.
And don't give me the line, "Nobody could've seen Omicron coming!" The emergence of a vaccine-evasive variant like O was inevitable from the moment we started mass vax into a global pandemic with a leaky, non-durable vax against a mutable, highly-infectious virus.
Instead you counted your shot counts like rosary beads. And just assumed that your high priests like Anthony Fauci knew the "real truth". And vilified anyone who tried to explain evolutionary biology 101 to you as a heretic.
Read 5 tweets
7 Jan
“CONCLUSIONS: Protection afforded by prior infection in preventing symptomatic reinfection with Alpha, Beta, or Delta is robust, at about 90%. While such protection against reinfection with Omicron is lower, it is still considerable at nearly 60%.” medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Vax in previously infected actually REDUCES protection from infection from 62% to 56%. NEGATIVE VE for vaccination of those with NI. @MartyMakary see Table 3
Read 4 tweets
20 Dec 21
Someone recently asked for a thread on the evidence of higher AE for vaccination of Covid survivors v naive recipients. EVERY study I am aware of so far is consistent with this finding. Please update or correct the list that follows.
Efrati nature.com/articles/s4159… "Short-term severe symptoms that required medical attention were found in 6.8% among the post-infected individuals, while none were found in the infection naïve population."
Menni ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/artic… "Systemic side-effects were more common (1·6 times after the first dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and 2·9 times after the first dose of BNT162b2) among individuals with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection than among those without known past infection."
Read 11 tweets
17 Dec 21
Just to clarify my interest for my new followers (thank you!). I am concerned about vaccinate mandates, especially for those with natural immunity (like me). So my focus is on (1) whether policymakers should recognize NI as part of any mandates and (2) whether mandates are legal.
I don't generally comment on the efficacy of vaccines in preventing serious illness and death. I don't comment on any specific risks of vaccines or non-vaccination (myocarditis, etc.) except as they relate to compelled vaccination. Those are not directly relevant to mandates.
I don't comment on the efficacy of particular therapeutic treatments (repurposed drugs, etc.). Those are questions that you should decide with your doctor. That is my WHOLE POINT--everyone has different circumstances and medical histories. One-size-fits-all medicine is barbaric.
Read 9 tweets

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