Got to love this- first of all the fluMOMO algorithm estimates excess deaths in a season- 'associated with flu activity' or 'influenza' not necessarily those with flu as the primary cause. Second, even looking at these, please show me where it says you get 300 deaths/day.
And here's a bit on FluMOMO- the key bit here is is considers all excess deaths during winter to be down to flu (except considering extreme temperatures as another cause), when in fact many of these deaths will not have flu as primary cause.
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
Here's is the critical bit, that the authors acknowledge in the original paper on fluMOMO. It calculates excess mortality, which can occur from other causes:
"Other respiratory pathogens are not directly included in the model, even though they may affect winter mortality. "
Reference here:
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…

Important to be honest that these are modelled estimates of excess mortality over winter, rather than deaths that we know are directly caused by flu.

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More from @dgurdasani1

10 Jan
Lots of people dismissing links between COVID-19 and all-cause diabetes. An association that's been shown in multiple studies- whether this increase is due to more diabetes or SARS2 precipitating diabetic keto-acidosis allowing these to be diagnosed is not known. A brief look👇
Peer-reviewed study from Imperial researchers published in Diabetes Care. This study showed an 80% increase in presentation of new cases of type I diabetes under 17 years between March 23rd and June 4th 2020.

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32816997/
Most presented with an acute form of diabetes called diabetic keto-acidosis (DKA). DKA is an acute presentation of diabetes- which can be life-threatening. It's usually caused or precipitated by certain factors, including infections.
Read 22 tweets
10 Jan
Utter rubbish platformed by @GMB. Schools aren't safe - because of England's exceptional policy in schools- 117,000 children with long COVID (tripled in 5 months), and 82 deaths (annual death rate 2-3x flu, and much greater than other childhood illnesses). These are the facts.
Interesting that GMB doesn't actually put out the clip of the opposing view that highlights this here. The narrative is rather 'anxious mum', rather than children and families beinng failed by govt, media, and society.

Many of these children's (and parents) lives, and health could've been saved by mitigations in schools and vaccination, which wasn't offered to parents for primary school age groups, and delayed massively even for adolescents. And the media is fully complicit.
Read 4 tweets
9 Jan
This is incorrect- if you consider reduction in intrinsic severity (*less* than the reduction in *observed severity* which is due to disproportionate infection of immune people) one would consider this about as severe as the original variant which was *much more* severe than flu.
This is important to consider given a large proportion of the globe, and even countries like the UK, US and Europe are not vaccinated. In the UK 30% remain unvaccinated.
and this is not even considering the impact of long COVID, which we currently don't even know with omicron, but even with the original variant, long COVID was an important consideration, causing multi-system damage and chronic illness in significant numbers.
Read 7 tweets
8 Jan
So what's your plan, if it's not regular vaccination or public health measures to minimise spread? So, mass death, mass chronic illness? You can treat the virus like flu, sure, it may just not treat you like the flu.
theguardian.com/world/2022/jan…
I have to say, I'm sadly not surprised to see this in the Guardian, given the stuff I've seen put out in the past month. They're getting in line with the flu and live with it narratives...
Let's call the 'live with it' plan what it is- it's a 'let the vulnerable, disabled, and disadvantaged die' plan... let's at least be honest about what it involves. Let's dispose with the euphemisms, shall we?
Read 4 tweets
8 Jan
Um, literally just look up the ONS data... deaths from flu are ~1500 *per year*. How were 300 people dying from flu a day? We're being 'triggled'

Triggled: [verb] spun to misinform with propaganda to normalise and minimise death and suffering from SARS-CoV-2. (see also hopium)
Not sure when the BBC became one of the most prominent sources of misinformation in the pandemic, but when you don't have an independent, and trustworthy national broadcaster, you know where you stand.
Read 4 tweets
8 Jan
Really? I read this thread & saw it's purpose as providing information to people that long COVID is a multi-system chronic disease with a complex aetiology - a message that many scientists & govts have failed to. Please stop minimising. You can critique what you don't agree with.
And yes, vaccines do help with long COVID as @IanRicksecker acknowledges, but the data are clear that long COVID doesn't disappear with vaccination either. And given many children don't even have the option of being vaccinated, surely risks to them should also be considered.
Snapshotting because I'm blocked. I've found @IanRicksecker very open to engaging with public health scientists to provide a clear and accurate picture for those who want to know more. Rather than dismissing and judging what he's done, perhaps engage with him.
Read 7 tweets

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