In some respects, what happened in bond markets last week was epic, something we might be talking about for many years.
A thread to explain
2/14
When discussing bond market moves, I believe the best metric is total return. It encompasses both price change and the level of yields (accrued interest).
The next set of charts show calendar week total returns. That is, the week ending Friday (Thursday if a holiday).
3/14
The 30-year data goes back to 1973 and last week was the worst calendar week total return in at least 49-year history! The long-bond lost 9.35%!!
If this was a year, a 9.35% total return loss would be the 5-year worst year ever.
Impressive for five days of work.
4/14
The 10-year note finished it worst week in 42 years, with a total return loss of 4.24%.
Only Feb 1980 saw a bigger loss for a calendar week loss (Volcker inflation panic, funds rate headed to 21%)
-4.24% would also be the fifth worst YEAR ever.
5/14
Finally,
The calendar week total return for the Bloomberg 10+ TIPS Index was -6.09%.
This marks the third worst week ever.
6/14
Note above each one of the other marked weeks were significant.
* 6/21/13, -5.12% = The height of the taper tantrum
* 10/10/08, -7.13% = Lehman failed.
7/14
Why was last week so epic?
I believe the whole bond market finally realized that easy money is over/QT is coming.
For weeks many bond players argued this table was wrong, the Fed would go less than 4 hikes/no QT. Not after last week's FOMC minutes.
8/14
What about TIPS and narrowing break evens?
As the right chart shows, the Fed took over this market. They now own 25% of this market, up from less than 10% pre-pandemic.
The left chart shows the Fed has bought more TIPS than the Treasury issued the last two years!!
9/14
TIPS are no longer a market signal about inflation expectations, the Fed ruined this with its big footprint.
TIPS are flow driven and flows are dominated by expectations of the speed of the Fed printer.
10/14
So, 3 or 4 hikes coming? QT coming? The most vulnerable market to the Fed printer gets killed. TIPS yields soar and BE's fall.
Again, not a signal about inflation. A signal about a loss of Fed liquidity coming.
11/14
Simply put, the bond market saw one of its worst weeks in history because bond market players finally "got it" that the Fed is going to end liquidity.
This kicked off a big the scramble to get out and not be the "bond bag holder" when the Fed printer is turned off.
12/14
This naturally begs the question, what about the stock market? The S&P was down -1.9%, hardly an epic week. What is going on here?
Hate to say it, but the stock market is NOT a leading indicator among FINANCIAL MARKETS.
13/14
Or the stock mkt the "slow kid" as it turns last.
2002 it bottomed AFTER the recession ended (Nov 2001) for the first time in 100 years
2007 it peaked after housing/bond market peaked in 2006
2009 stocks bottomed after the bond market in credit bottomed in late 2008.
14/14
So, if the bond market is having epic convulsions in the wake Fed printer getting turned off, do not take solace that the stock market "doesn't get it."
This is how financial markets turn, the stock market often stays too long and turns last.
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Yesterday, I made the case that tariff-driven inflation expectations are soaring, driving the bond market, and paralyzing the Fed from cutting despite fears of a recession.
Last week, the 30-year yield rose 46 basis points last week to end at 4.87%.
As this chart shows, this was its biggest weekly rise since April 1987 (38 years ago!).
2/16
Why Did This Happen?
Let's start with what it was not. It was not data that suggested the economy was strong or recent inflation was high.
Here is a tick chart of the last 3-days of the 10-year yield.
3/16
The better-than-expected CPI and PPI reports (green) had no impact on the 10-year yield.
The worst-than-expected Michigan Survey (red), with its collapse in sentiment implying a severe slowdown or recession, did nothing to stop the drive in yields to the highs of the day.
How stressed are markets? By this metric, the most in 17 years.
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SPY = The S&P 500 Index Trust. This was the first ETF created in 1993 and is one of the largest at $575 billion.
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The middle panel is SPY's Net Asset Value (NAV). The price closed at a 90-basis-point premium to the underlying value of the assets.
The last time anything like this happened was 2008. To emphasize, not even in the crazy days of 2020 did its divergence get this big.
2/4
VOO = Vanguard S&P 500, $566 billion in assets
At the same time VOO, which is Vanguard's version of SPY, went out at one of its biggest discounts in years (middle panel).
3/4
Finally, IVV iShares Core S&P 500 ETF, $559 billion in assets
It has been trading at a persistent discount for a few weeks (middle panel).
Something has broken tonight in the bond market. We are seeing a disorderly liquidation.
If I had to GUESS, the basis trade is in full unwind.
Since Friday's close to now ... the 30-year yield is up 56 bps, in three trading days.
The last time this yield rose this much in 3 days (close to close) was January 7, 1982, when the yield was 14%.
This kind of historic move is caused by a forced liquidation, not human managers make decisions about the outlook for rates at midnight ET.
It keeps going, the 30-year yield is now 5.00%!
As chart shows, since Sunday Night, 54 hours ago, the 30-year is up 67 basis points. Cannot find a move like this in my database.
The only overlay is the 30-year Gily blowing up during the Liz Truss moment" in September 2022. That was 130 bos in 5 days. We are now 67 bps 2 1/2 days.
S&P futures are down another 100 points or 2% tonight as I write. This sell-off might not be about tariffs but on the realization that the bond market is broken/breaking.
Markets are fragile. Tariffs broke the bond market and now this decline is about this realization.
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A liquation is underway and must be completed, losing positions have to be exited, not supported or ignored.
Cutting rates and making financing rates cheaper in the middle of this kind of liquidation, encourages speculation ... exactly what is not needed in the middle of such a move.
I think the market knows this which is why the chart below shows only a 63% probability of a cut in rates in a month. Not intra-meeting! Rates cuts are not the answer.
The Fed restarting QE to artificially raise bond prices will only cement the belief that a massive spike in inflation is coming.
This is not a problem that can be fixed with "printing." It was years of "printing" that encouraged the massive build-up in speculation that is now being forced to liquidate.
You cannot drink yourself sober. You can encourage speculation by cutting rates/WE to stop a speculative unwind.