Some may recall I got into a brief disagreement with @jfeldman_epi a few weeks back about whether or not it's *always* appropriate to adjust for age when running COVID death rate numbers. Having said that, he makes some valid points here: jmfeldman.medium.com/a-year-in-how-…
For me, the single biggest mistake made by the Biden Administration (or at least the CDC...but the buck stops w/the WH) was on May 13th when @CDCDirector Walensky issued her "fully-vaxxed can take of their masks!" guidance, which was a TERRIBLE change. abcnews.go.com/Politics/fully…
Many people, including myself, roasted the @CDCgov at the time for this change at the time (I wrote a whole thread about it), but the moment the words left her mouth it was too late anyway; genie out of the bottle/etc:
Having said that, I think he also does a lot of hand-waving away of the political realities with statements like this:
He *does* acknowledge the political/polarization factor later on, but again, I think he vastly understates just how "entrenched" that Republican opposition is:
I've posted the graph below many times over the past 8 months or so, but I don't think people fully understand that it's not just how steep the slope is NOW, it's how it's CHANGED over time:
This animation only runs from February 2021 - August 2021, but you can clearly see that the Red/Blue vaccination divide only started AFTER most senior citizens had gotten vaxxed:
THESE graphs tell the story all the way from February through the end of December. The first is the R^2 (correlation strength). The second is the slope itself (the angle of the trend line).
Notice what happened the moment the vaccines became available to all adults?
The moment grandma & grampa were fully vaxxed, the GOP/MAGA/FOX went into overdrive on a robust anti-vaxx campaign. It worked like a charm, though the effect started to flatten out around mid-September...only to start up again as soon as 5-11 yr olds were approved.
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The Inflation Reduction Act is also the reason over 20 million #ACA enrollees are saving an average of $800/yr on health insurance premiums.
Unfortunately that provision is scheduled to sunset at the end of 2025 unless legislation is passed to make the savings permanent.
I’ve written up estimates of how much net premiums would jump for various households in every state starting in January 2016 if the IRA subsidy formula isn’t extended. It’s not pretty. Here’s the first 5 states: acasignups.net/24/07/09/state…
Folks, donating to #HarrisWalz2024 is fine, but we REALLY need to focus on DOWNBALLOT races as well!
Here's how much I've raised for Harris/Walz vs. ~70 House/Senate races & ~700 State Legislative races.
Pick a page, pick some candidates & donate at . Blue24.org
Here's my Senate page where you can donate DIRECTLY to @RubenGallego, @DebbieforFL, @AlsobrooksForMD, @ElissaSlotkin, @jontester, @RosenforNevada, @SherrodBrown, @Bob_Casey, @ColinAllredTX & @tammybaldwin, as well as up to 10 other Senate Dem nominees:
@RubenGallego @DebbieforFL @AlsobrooksForMD @ElissaSlotkin @jontester @RosenforNevada @SherrodBrown @Bob_Casey @ColinAllredTX @tammybaldwin Here's my House page where you can donate DIRECTLY to up to 50 Dems running for COMPETITIVE House races, including @DrAmishShah, @EngelForArizona, @AdamGrayCA, @RudySalasCA, @gtwhitesides, @WillRollinsCA, @YadiraCaraveo, @CurtisHertelJr & @McdonaldRivet:
🔥 Guys...donating to #HarrisWalz2024 is fine, but we REALLY need to focus DOWN BALLOT as well! 1/
As my followers know, I've set up a simple website at which contains pages to donate DIRECTLY to *hundreds* of Democrats running for *competitive* seats in everything from State Legislature to U.S. Senate. 2/Blue24.org
So far this cycle I've raised a staggering $5.4 MILLION for #HarrisWalz2024. I'm incredibly proud of this...but I'm STRONGLY urging people to also donate to STATE LEGISLATIVE races, where small donations go a lot farther.
My main concern wasn’t about her personally (I actually supported her over Biden back in 2019); it was more about whether they could make the transition without it turning into a mess. So far they’ve pulled it off nearly perfectly.
With early voting starting in just 65 days in a few states, David asked this very reasonable question. I'm not an expert, but my general understanding of the situation is this: 1/
There've been a number of polls claiming that Harris/etc. would perform a few points better...but that's all THEORETICAL.
We all know that the moment it became a reality the numbers could change dramatically...especially given all the other chaos which would surround it. 2/
The thinking seems to be that Harris has a higher ceiling but also a lower floor. If you're 100% certain that Biden can't win, it therefore makes sense to figure you have nothing to lose.
However, this would upset millions of Dems who voted for Biden in the primary... 3/
Thread. ~20 years ago, one of the minor controversies surrounding then-President George W. Bush was after being warned that something he wanted to do was unconstitutional, he allegedly angrily replied that the Constitution is "just a damned piece of paper!" 1/
I don't know whether this actually happened or not, but regardless of how appalling it my is, on the most basic level that's actually *correct*: The Constitution *in and of itself* *is* "just a damned peice of paper." It's not a talisman. It doesn't have any magical powers. 2/
The power of The Constitution is in the hands of whoever the American People happen to be at any particular point in time.
If those in charge *and* enough of those who aren't either actively want to ignore the Constitution or just don't care enough to defend it, guess what? 3/