@phil_luttazi The global exit strategy from this pandemic is/always has been the building up of immunity

This virus will never disappear and herd immunity to eliminate is not a thing for a virus like this

So we are stuck with effectively one option (with multiple paths to get there)

1/
@phil_luttazi We must build up a sufficiently robust and diverse immune response so that the importance that this virus has in our lives falls lower and lower.

As adults we are on the same steep learning curve that babies are on in early life. But doing this as adults is risky business

2/
@phil_luttazi However, we have no choice. The virus is with us and just like the other viruses we contend with as babies, it’s not going away.

So it would be foolish to assume that vaccination is our only approach to building immunity when we have a virus that will cycle for our lifetimes

3/
@phil_luttazi We have to build up foundational layers of immunity safely - through vaccination. But virus keeps circulating.

As vaccinated ppl become unintentionally exposed, they will ideally not get severe disease, but they will, with an exposure, gain new immune knowledge

4/
@phil_luttazi We can’t deny infections occur and shouldn’t deny that it helps as long as we get through it

Our immune memory works just like any other memory in our body. It requires repetition. But also benefits to see the broader context to do even better.

5/
@phil_luttazi As we consider our long term efforts to deal with this virus, if we assume that only the vaccine can provide us w immunity (untrue) we find ourselves planning for vaccine purgatory. But simply put that’s not how this is happening.

6/
@phil_luttazi We know that people who have been vaccinated and infected have a more broad immune response than ppl who have been only vaccinated.

T cells don’t care about spike protein any more than all the other proteins not in the vaccine

They work w a fundamentally different process

7/
@phil_luttazi This added breadth of immune memory is beneficial in the long term.

our mitigation strategies exist to keep things ideally better controlled but not to eliminate the virus

In fact, the whole point of getting a vax is to protect us when we get exposed/infected.

8/
@phil_luttazi So as we plan our off ramp, it is absolutely ridiculous to not consider that billions will be infected - repeatedly, and as such we incorporate this into our epidemiological models and planning - in vaccine rich and vaccine poor countries.

9/
@phil_luttazi Burying our head in the sand and pretending infections aren’t happening when we likely have >billion infections would be remarkably shortsighted

We can use measured immunity from both infections and vaccines to better allocate resources, including vaccine doses, globally

10/
@phil_luttazi We can make smart policy that if a child has had two vaccines and gets an infection w Omicron and it causes their antibodies to drive high, then that child probably won’t benefit sufficiently from a 3rd dose to warrant it at that moment.

11/
@phil_luttazi We can learn to measure immune protection & incorporate into mathematical models & in our on the ground decision making

We can gain info on relationships and timing between vaccine and infection to better understand how to consider risk post breakthrough & resources needed

12/
@phil_luttazi So, there are a million reasons we should make sure to consider immune memory from both vaccination and infection as we plan as a nation and as a globe what the next years will look like for us.
13/
@phil_luttazi If you made it this far, I should note this thread was in response to concerns that I shouldn't discuss immunity from infection b/c it's perceived as anti-vax.

I disagree.

But as we get to broad immunity:
• Vax
• Test
• Mask
• Ventilate
• Be respectful

14/

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Michael Mina

Michael Mina Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @michaelmina_lab

8 Jan
IMPORTANT - Please share

Many ppl are frustrated that the @US_FDA is telling people not to use a nasal swab as a throat swab

Don’t be! You should be thanking them.

Seriously, you should. Here’s why:

Short Thread

1/
Because in US, the @US_FDA is THE gatekeeper making sure the drugs we take & tests we use DO work & are safe

FDA makes decisions based on data PROVIDED TO THEM

As far as safety goes, FDA is the BEST DEFENSE the population has against dangerous biological products.

2/
There are a few things to consider:

If the FDA IS endorsing something w an EUA or an approval, you can be pretty darn sure it works AND is safe when used as intended.

FDA is THE REASON ppl in US can go to CVS, pick something up, read the label & safely use the product.

3/
Read 9 tweets
6 Jan
My family is spread across the US - In past few weeks, every single house has had multiple people w COVID

It's a bumpy road and we're taking a particularly rough path with a lot of casualties

But we are building up the layers of immunity to grow out of this virus' grip on us.
Regarding building "Layers of Immunity"

Think about immunity like studying for a test

Read a textbook. Each time, you reinforce formed memory & you see something new too! Some small but useful detail

Immune memory can be considered simply - very much like regular memory
Even though the vaccines aren't stopping transmission (they were never meant to. Herd immunity shouldn't have been seen as an option) the vaccines ARE working to do EXACTLY what they were meant to do - stop disease

Details:
Read 4 tweets
6 Jan
At what point was the message of risk reduction (not elimination) and need for serial testing if we want to catch ppl when infectious lost.

There’s a weird focus on first day of infectiousness - as though all tests are day 1

1:

@EmilyAnthes

nytimes.com/2022/01/05/hea…
Importantly, this NYT article didn’t highlight the right interpretation of that study IMO. The majority of difference isnt PCR vs antigen.

The difference was Saliva vs Nasal swab.

When comparing PCR vs Antigen in nasal swab vs nasal swab, the relationship was as expected

2/
The title of the paper should have been

Discordant results between Saliva and Nasal swab specimens

But we’ve actually seen or known this for other variants - saliva becomes positive sooner

3/
Read 4 tweets
5 Jan
THREAD:

This is an important study - supports anecdotes and other work by @awyllie13

Virus growing and detectable in saliva days earlier than the nose!

Both PCR & Ag in nose lag saliva 1-3 days

In Nose, PCR is 1 day faster than Ag (As Expected)

1/

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
@awyllie13 Numerous reports show saliva comes up earlier and w Omicron there have been MANY anecdotes that throat swabs (which interact with saliva!) are turning positive BEFORE nasal swabs

And this pre-print suggests people are infectious when saliva turns positive

2/
Importantly, people are becoming symptomatic really fast too! As this study suggests

So we can use this to our GREAT advantage...

If beginning to feel Symptomatic - ASSUME positive, ASSUME infectious

w/ limited tests, hold on testing!

3/

Read 9 tweets
5 Jan
This thread by is going around
The numbers are not correct

We do not care about sensitivity against PCR -> We care about Sens against culturable/infectious virus

For that, rapid antigen tests are >90%

And the % infectious at day 5 used is inaccurate.

Its a nonsensical 🧵
Here’s an ex of why we can’t just use FDA numbers vs PCR

If we only compare vs PCR, you get poor sensitivity (here: ~400/800 or ~50%).

But if you compare viral loads that matter (culture pos), you get very high sensitivity: 93% here.

From medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
This is most commonly seen in asymptomatics. Why?

Because if asymptomatic - don’t have a clue if you’re PCR swab is taken when you are shedding live virus or Post infectious

So your just comparing Ag against anytime PCR positivity, regardless of if infectious.

3/
Read 4 tweets
4 Jan
Should @CDCgov reconsider guidance on isolation & add a Neg test? Yes!

Why?

Bc relationship between symptom start & peak virus load has changed!

Guidance must keep up accordingly.

To explain: I made a (tough to read) chart based on real experience of Prof. Kato @neurotheory
@CDCgov @neurotheory Here is the original tweet by @neurotheory showing this TERRIFIC Time course of tests.

@CDCgov @neurotheory I've written a bit more about this in a similar thread on Omicron, testing and symptoms.

3/

Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(