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10 Jan, 4 tweets, 1 min read
The puzzling thing about this is that many of Corbyn's advisors correctly diagnosed the 2019 launch of ChuK/TIG as a doomed enterprise given the electoral system and Labour's profile and organisational dominance. Why would they assume a Corb/PJPP would do any better?
On the one hand, there probably is a more geographically concentrated radical left-Corbyn sympathetic vote, and Corbyn is a higher profile figure than any of the TiGgers. On the other hand, the strongest seats for a Corb/PJPP would be seats where Lab is *very* dominant
Main impact of ChUK-TIG was to remove a number of Labour MPs who were never on board with Corbyn's leadership. Most were replaced with pro-Corbyn (or at least Corbyn-accepting) MPs. Would be ironic if Corbyn himself now performed the same service for his successor
However, all of this should come with heavy caveats - the story is from the Telegraph, not exactly known as a Corbyn friendly source, so I'm not sure how credible it is.

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More from @robfordmancs

Rob Ford Profile picture
6 Jan
The leader was Trump. The goal was convincing voters the 2020 election was stolen. The plan was to overturn it and if that proved impossible, to pave the way for overturning the next election. The riot may have failed in the SR but I fail to see that as "reassuring" as Neil does.
40% plus of the US electorate now say the 2020 election result was not legitimate. I do not find that to be "reassuring". It follows directly from the events of a year ago.
The majority of members of the Republican House now openly reject the legitimacy of the 2020 election result. I do not find that "reassuring". It follows directly from the events of a year ago.
Read 6 tweets
Rob Ford Profile picture
5 Jan
Regardless of what the public voted for, if Edward Leigh voted for the new immigration system, then he has already voted for this. The new system increased restrictions on EU immigration and reduced restrictions on non-EU immigration.
And, in fact, contra Edward Leigh, a system like the one now introduced, which applies uniform controls, and selects based on skills, demand and other economic criteria, is exactly what the public (both Leave and Remain) repeatedly say they want in polling
Despite COVID, there have already been large increases in migration via both the skilled work and study route from India, Pakistan, Nigeria and many other countries over the past year - this is the system Edward Leigh's government voted in, working as designed and advertised
Read 4 tweets
Rob Ford Profile picture
30 Dec 21
The next few days are going to be a hot mess, COVID comms wise, as the irresistable force of motivated reasoning hits the immovable object of Christmas/New Year's reporting schedules
Expect to see a lot of alarmist reporting of large numbers, with caveats about how they lump together several days' figures missing/ignored. Countered by a lot of overconfident reporting of small numbers, with caveats about Xmas/NY under-reporting missing/ignored.
For researchers of confirmation bias, its the Most Wonderful Time of The Year
Read 4 tweets
Rob Ford Profile picture
14 Dec 21
It also puts Labour firmly on the side of public opinion, which as always through the pandemic supports restrictions to combat an emerging threat. Con rebels are adopting a position most of their voters - and in particular their older voters - reject.
The broader problem for Cons this reflects is that many of the strongest ideological convictions of their more vocal & rebellious backbenchers - small state market liberalism, libertarian opposition to COVID restrictions - don't really have any electoral market at all.
These positions are also particularly toxic with the Leave voting (once UKIP voting) "red wall" type supporters Cons picked up in 2017-19, who tend to have exactly the opposite combination of views - favouring big state interventionism and authoritarianism on most things
Read 8 tweets
Rob Ford Profile picture
13 Dec 21
We literally are a "papers, please" society - the whole and explicit point of the "Hostile Environment" policies introduced by this government's predecessors, and still in force, is to make a wide range of service providers demand papers of every not-citizen resident here.
What to study here? "Papers, please" (every month of your course)
Want to work here? "Papers, please"
Want to rent a flat here? "Papers, please"
Get sick and need healthcare? "Papers, please"
The Windrush scandal, which Mr Fysh may remember, was a"papers, please" scandal. The government imposed these bureaucratic demands, without foresight or forethought, on people who had lived here for decades, perfectly legally. Then wrecked their lives.
Read 4 tweets
Rob Ford Profile picture
8 Dec 21
On Sunday it will be two years since Boris Johnson's Conservatives achieved the largest majority since Margaret Thatcher's 1987 landslide. To mark the approach milestone, I'll be putting together a thread of graphs and quotes of the day from "The British General Election of 2019"
The first BGE19 graph of the day reminds us that the polls in 2017-19 were very stable, until they weren't. When the public turns against a government, the collapse can be rapid and savage Image
The first BGE19 quote of the day offers @philipjcowley 's assessment of Boris Johnson, on his ascent to Number 10 ImageImage
Read 6 tweets

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