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Rob Ford Profile picture
Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
Politics Prof, author "The British General Election of 2019" & "Brexitland" Senior Fellow @UKandEU "The Swingometer" - https://t.co/I4x2VwsRoF
11 subscribers
Nov 6 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
Decided to go through this systematically. Incumbent government performance in wealthy democracies since March 2022, when Ukraine invasion really spiked things upwards: 🧵 South Korea President (March 22) - incumbent term limited, incumbent party lost
Malta (March 22) - incumbent Labour party re-elected, gains seats
Hungary (April 22) - incumbent Orban govt re-elected with larger majority
Serbia (April 22) - incumbent Pres re-elected but loses Parliamentary majority
Apr 9 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Writing about the London Mayor election last week made me realise how much more interesting the West Midlands Mayoral election is...so now I've done a Swingometer post on the West Midlands (link in next tweet) There has been a lot of talk, and quite a lot of polling, about Sadiq Khan's fate in London. But Andy Street's fate as Conservative mayor of the West Midlands is more uncertain & more interesting, and yet has attracted much less interest (& no polling)

open.substack.com/pub/swingomete…
Mar 25 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Some brand new data and analysis on immigration. I put the numbers of migrants coming to Britain via various routes directly to the public and ask them whether they want to cut each group or not. Only two cases where a majority want cuts - ‘small boats’ arrivals & dependents of students If we look only at those who had said earlier in the survey that they believed migration needed to be reduced, a majority favour cuts in four cases out of ten - two above plus asylum seekers and students in general.
Feb 7 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
New on the Swingometer - "Labour and Muslim voters" - a deep dive into the electoral risks Labour might face from a slump in Muslim support open.substack.com/pub/swingomete… A poll published this week by Survation showed Labour support among Muslims falling by 26 points - from 86% in 2019 to 60% now. This is a big shift, at a time when Labour support in general is rising. Could it cost the party seats at the general election?
Jan 28 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Firstly, as many are pointing out, foundation courses are not same thing as standard courses. This is not an apples for apples comparison.
Secondly, if anyone imagines cutting overseas student intakes wld free up spaces for UK students, they don't understand uni finances at all If the response to this is "cut off overseas students" then in most cases you will then have a university with a massive deficit. They will respond by cutting research and teaching across the board. That means less UK students, and even tougher entry requirements.
Jan 9 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
One of the dominant tropes in current political discussion is "voters are fed up with the government, but are they convinced by the opposition?" This isn't new - exactly the same discussion happened in 2009-10 ahead of Cameron's win and in 1996-7 ahead of Blair's win From Kavanagh and Cowley "The British General Election of 2010": "Despite some improvement in voters' perceptions, voters were still unsure about the Conservative Party's central message...'The Conservatives are no longer the nasty party. But people are not sure what they are.'"
Jan 1 • 36 tweets • 9 min read
OK time for the 2024 general election predictions thread now. I'm going to start with ReformUK and Nigel Farage - as predictions here have repercussions across the rest of the piece 1/? Will Farage return? If he does, it will certainly be to lead ReformUK election campaign - this excellent @TomMcTague piece on unusual structure of ReformUK - a company with Farage as majority shareholder - means Farage can take over any time he wants unherd.com/2023/12/nigel-…
Dec 29, 2023 • 17 tweets • 7 min read
Going to start making my 2024 predictions now. Naturally lots of Qs about next year’s GE result, which I will cover together in a separate thread. But first some non-GE predictions…. First up this Q from @chrishanretty (no stranger to forecasting). I’m going to say “higher” for two reasons. 1: Reform have gathered pace as the home for disgruntled rad rt Con voters this year, and there’s little reason they’ll be happier next yr. 2: Farage may return to helm.
Dec 19, 2023 • 17 tweets • 5 min read
Yesterday I had the following exchange with the MP @NeilDotObrien regarding the use of data in a widely shared slide of mine. Following this exchange I have added a series of corrections to the thread with the slide, and tweeted out a new thread re-analysing data Image I agree with Neil O'Brien that high standards in data presentation and communication are important. Unfortunately, it seems he does not always apply the same standards to his own communication of data and evidence. Some examples follow
Dec 19, 2023 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Following discussion with @NeilDotObrien yesterday about whether the below graph is misleading due to inclusion of one set of data points which use a different question wording, I will in this thread show the trends for each data source separately & then the overall LT averages This thread be added to original thread along with my earlier correction and provision of additional evidence. I therefore hope @neildotobrien will retract his false claim that I "won't correct" this information, as I have now done so multiple times
Nov 23, 2023 • 15 tweets • 5 min read
A few slides from my recent lecture on long term trends in immigration attitudes which may be pertinent today:
1. Though migration is at record highs, the LT trend in public support for restricting migration is *downwards* Image 2. Though migration is at record highs, more British people now than *ever before* see migration as both economically and culturally *beneficial* Image
Nov 11, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
So it seems that a Home Secretary stirring up moral panic about disruptive Palestine marches on Armistice Day has helped to encourage a disruptive far right march on Armistice Day. As predictable as it is depressing. This prediction hasn’t aged well
Jun 11, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Johnson's appeal was limited in 2019, he was toxic in 2022, and he is still toxic now. Some graphs to illustrate each point follow... Johnson wasn't a popular leader in 2019. He was less popular at every point of his triumphant campaign than Theresa May was at the equivalent point during her 2017 humiliation Image
Jun 9, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
This is excellent! One thought in response taboos of this kind are another instance of how the highly engaged misread the views of those who don't follow politics obsessively. Political 'taboos' are invented and enforced by the highly engaged minority on each other So, on immigration, the belief that one cannot engage constructively with anti-imm voters (and hence defence of high imm is 'taboo') is I think driven by the vocal and inflexible anti-imm minority who dominate debate of the issue out of all proportion to their numbers.
May 25, 2023 • 27 tweets • 8 min read
With the much anticipated ONS 2022 immigration stats arriving shortly, its time for a quick thread on where the public are on immigration drawing on my report last year with @MarleyAMorris and @IPPR . TL;DR - public is not where you might expect! Lets' start with the numbers game. Has the rise in imm produced a demand for cuts? No. The opposite has happened - share of voters happy with imm levels is rising, and in 2022 for the first time ever a majority with an opinion said they want imm levels to stay same or rise Image
May 24, 2023 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
This is disgusting and dehumanising language. Whatever your views on immigration, it is simply wrong to frame those who come to work, study and make their lives here as if they are equivalent to illegal, life wrecking narcotics. It is perfectly possible to critique immigration policy and immigration levels while still respecting the dignity and humanity of those whose lives and choices are being discussed. There should be no place in a decent debate on the issue for this kind of ugly language.
Mar 8, 2023 • 16 tweets • 5 min read
A quick thread about "Stop the Boats" - why the govt sees this as a vote winner, and why they may be mistaken about that. 1/? First things first - rules and processes matter to voters. They want a migration system that sets and enforces clear rules on who can come here, how, and on what terms. Small boats migration is clearly at odds with this framework. Hardline responses to this enjoy high support
Feb 15, 2023 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
As @JMagosh points out, the comparison doesn't hold up. Johnson, though an election winner (in unusual circumstances) was *never* popular. His ratings were weak from the outset, and dire by the end. Sturgeon, by contrast was and remains exceptionally popular despite long tenure @JMagosh This briefing would suggest Labour don't fully understand the opportunity presented to them by Sturgeon's departure. A politician able to maintain positive approvals despite many years in charge is a rare talent. V diff to the PM who blew himself & his party up in 2 yrs.
Feb 14, 2023 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Your regular reminder that attitudes to migration have never been more positive and that voters now favour increased migrant recruitment into a wide range of sectors - with the biggest positive shifts in attitudes coming in sectors where shortages are apparent You can read more on this historic liberal shift in attitudes to migration in my report with @MarleyAMorris here: ippr.org/files/2022-11/…
Feb 1, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
This is ominous for Sunak and for anyone who was hoping for a quieter 2023 in terms of internal Con politics. Sunak's figures with several pollsters increasingly looking no better than Johnson's were a year ago, and Cons are if anything further behind Lab now than then Deterioration could easily continue with further external (strikes, inflation, NHS) and internal (Raab scandal, standards committee, etc) forces driving more negative coverage and criticism of the PM. Aside from muffled positive noises on NI protocol, not much good news ahead
Jan 26, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
If you were born in Britain between 1983 and 2000 and both your parents were EU citizens, it is quite possible the British courts have just voided the British citizenship you (and the Home Office) thought you had. The British passport you may own may no longer be valid. 40 years living in this country as a fully recognised citizen? Poof! Gone. Because the Home Office decided to apply a harder line interpretation to the children of migrants decades later, and the courts now say it has to be applied backwards to everyone born under current law.