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Jan 10, 2022 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Richer, Wiser, Happier by @williamgreen72 is a cracker of a book which distills investment and life wisdom from many of the world's most iconic investors, as well as some lesser known ones

Below are some of my notes with my favourite quotes and lessons, organised by investor
@williamgreen72 1⃣ Nick Sleep and Qais Zakaria - my favourite chapter of the book, profiling their focus on the long game, destination analysis and what they believe is the most powerful business model of all - scale economies shared
2⃣ Howard Marks - Everything is impermanent, and the future is highly unpredictable. Thus we must act with conservatism and vigilance, and be honest with ourselves about our limitations and vulnerabilities
3⃣ Jean-Marie Eveillard and Matthew McLennan (First Eagle Global Fund) - returned 12.49% a year since 1979 (vs 9.35% for MSCI World). Two brilliant but little known investors who blend in science and history into their thinking. This chapter was a hidden gem
4⃣ Mohnish Pabrai - one of the most successful value investors who cloned Buffett's philosophy on investing and life almost perfectly
5⃣ Charlie Munger - Safeguarding against stupidity, being rational, and lessons of a lifetime
There are lots of other investors and insights covered in this book, which makes it well worth reading. Highly recommend.

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More from @punchcardinvest

Nov 15, 2022
$SE The word "efficiency" was mentioned 27 times during the call. Management talked repeatedly about the cultural changes that are now permeating all aspects of the business and decision making. As a result, we now seem to have line of sight on profitability by end of next year
On Shopee. Right now the battle is just to generate any growth in GMV given repeoning+macro+reining in of S&M spend. However the monetisation levers are being pressed hard – according to my calcs this was just about the largest quarterly increase in take-rate recorded.
Takerate + reduction in S&M has seen the biggest quarterly reduction in both EBITDA loss and S&M per order to date. This also includes most of the $77m of one-off severances for all the job cuts, so if you exclude that the overall EBITDA loss per order reduces closer to 20c / ord
Read 9 tweets
Oct 2, 2022
Michael Mauboussin's 2014 paper "What Does a P/E Multiple Mean" is a great guide to understanding the link between valuation, multiples and business economics (ROIC).
Here are some of my notes from reading it:
Multiples are a shorthand for valuation, not the valuation itself. Valuation should be driven by earnings and CFs
The value of a firm can be thought of in two parts:
- steady state value where NOPAT is held constant into perpetuity
- future value creation (growth opportunities)
The steady state component simply assumes that there's a core base of a business, the NOPAT of which can be maintained forever, and ROIC=cost of equity, so the steady-state PE multiple can be expressed as 1/CoE. eg. if the CoE is 8%, then the steady state PE mult should be 12.5x
Read 8 tweets
Sep 26, 2022
Updated market share data of public cloud GPU and CPU deployments

TLDR: $NVDA and $AMD continue to take share.
Strong month for Nvidia with them supposedly claiming 100% of all incremental accelerator deployments in July, accounting for 84% total share (up from 82% I had in my deep dive). Image
This is interesting seeing Nvidia's share broken out by chips. Its flagship A100 has seen a fast ramp since its launch in 2020 but still only c.10% share. Quite surprised to see the older gen V100 (for training) and T4 (for inference) dominating and still being bought in droves Image
Read 6 tweets
Sep 24, 2022
Michael Mauboussin's 2014 paper on Calculating ROIC is an excellent guide to just about everything you need to know about this important metric and how to make sense of it. Here are my summary notes from reading it: Image
ROIC is a key indicator of a company's ability to create value, its competitive advantages and capital efficiency. What's important is:
1) the absolute spread between the ROIC and the WACC, and
2) how much capital can be deployed at that spread (reinvestment rate)
ROIC = NOPAT / Invested Capital (IC)
where NOPAT = EBIT - Cash taxes (ie. cash earnings before financing)
IC can be thought of in two ways:
1) the net assets a company needs to operate
2) the amount of financing a company's capital holders need to supply to fund the net assets Image
Read 15 tweets
Aug 12, 2022
Very interesting data from Jefferies showing CPU and GPU instance share in the top cloud providers. Haven't come across this level of granularity before $NVDA $AMD $INTC

CPUs - clear trend of AMD taking share from Intel, but also AWS's Graviton being pushed strongly as well Image
Nvidia unsurprisingly dominates accelerator instances with over 80% share across all cloud providers, however interesting how much AWS is pushing its inferentia chip for inferencing workloads Image
Which means that Nvidia's share of AWS accelerated instances is falling and is the lowest amongst all the cloud providers (though still ~70%). Similar marginal share erosion happening at GCP with Google's TPUs, but to a lesser extent Image
Read 4 tweets
May 17, 2022
$SE Overall a decent result given all the headwinds and tough comps. Some updated charts and KPIs that I track below along with some commentary:
Shopee GMV sequential decline was well expected by now but still 38% growth yoy and 64% rev yoy was a bit better than I expected. Take-rates flat qoq but these should see a nice increase next quarter as commissions have been raised across the board in the last few months
Good to see S&M per order reached its lowest level ever this quarter, although if i had to nickpick at anything it's the large increase in HQ costs which offset that somewhat, which meant total loss per order of $0.40 was largely flat.
Read 8 tweets

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