How is Boris Johnson doing as PM? (% of Tory members)
Well 61% / Badly 38%
How this compares
B. Johnson, Jul 2020: Well 85% / Badly 15%
T. May, May 2019: Well 20% / Badly 79%
T. May, Jul 2018: Well 60% / Badly 39%
T. May, Sep 2017: Well 71% / Badly 27%
% of Conservative party members who think Boris Johnson...
Has what it takes to win the next general election: 61%
Has what it takes to run the country: 60%
Has a clear vision for Britain: 55%
Has a good team around him: 34%
Top 5 reasons that 26% of 2024 Conservatives have defected to Reform UK in the year since the 2024 election
1. Trust them more on immigration: 56% 2. All other parties are worse: 41% 3. Better at standing up for people like me: 36% 4. Closer to my values: 25% 5. Better placed to win next election: 24%
Compared to those sticking with the party, Conservative defectors to Reform UK are more likely to be men (58% vs 44%), more likely to have voted Leave (80% vs 61%) and are older (83% are over 50 vs 75%)
While Conservative losses to Reform UK are more likely than loyalists to see immigration as a top issue facing the country (88% vs 64%), the two groups do not otherwise differ hugely on what are currently the most pressing problems in the UK
🧵/ Where does the British public stand on transgender rights in 2024/5?
The 4th study in our series shows that scepticism has grown across the board over the last two years, including among groups typically more sympathetic to trans people
On transgender social/legal status, % of Britons think...
Social
Should be able to identify as a different gender: 49% (-6 from 2022)
Should not be able to identify as a different gender: 35% (+10)
Legal
Law should allow people to change legal gender: 34% (-6)
Law should not allow people to change legal gender: 48% (+11)
As many Britons now say you should be able to change *neither* your social nor legal gender as say you should be able to change *both*
Should be able to change neither: 33% (+10 from 2022)
Should be able to change both: 32% (-6)
Change social, but not legal: 10% (-1)
Change social, unsure on legal: 7% (+1)
Unsure on both: 11% (-5)
Other combos: 8% (+1)
While Western Europeans are much more likely to want Ukraine to win than Russia, the number who do so AND care a great/fair amount about it has fallen noticeably in some countries since early 2023
With Donald Trump due to become president again in January, Western Europeans typically expect that he will end support to Ukraine – although they are less sure whether he will follow through on threats to withdraw from NATO