What are the implications of this? For Founders? For VCs? No wrong answers. Curious to hear thoughts. "YC’s $500,000 Standard Deal" blog.ycombinator.com/ycs-standard-d…
My take: (1) definitely good for YC; (2) probably neutral to negative for most founders (it's not a lot of cash, but it puts the squeeze on the next round, especially if that round is small)
(3) Puts a ton of pressure on founders to increase the valuation of the next round, which creates its own set of issues.
(4) Further evidence supporting my observation that accelerators and early-stage VCs are at war with each other - whether they realize it or not.
(5) Strengthens the argument I've made recently (and have gotten in trouble for) that most accelerator programs are just not fit for purpose any more. 7-10% dilution for minimal cash just makes no sense these days, and YC can now claim it's $500K for ~7%.
(6) Yet another challenge for early-stage / first-check funds (like Angular) who are getting squeezed from all sides.
First-check firms like Angular are competing against other first-check alternatives (such as YC). It's a very different product offering. For some founders, YC may be optimal. For others, what Angular (or our peer firms) bring to the table is optimal.
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Wow. Hearing of case after case of "big boy" Series A+ VCs literally fighting to stick big checks into very early-stage companies I'm not comfortable putting small checks into. This market is . . . . . interesting.
Assuming both the Series A+ guys and I am acting rationally and with some skill - what is going on? What explains the inverted risk curve of the VC market? After all, as a small first-check firm, I'm supposed to be taking MORE risk than they are.....
I think what has happened is that we have moved wholesale into a momentum market. What's a momentum market? The more money you raise, the more money you will raise. Because there is so much money looking for a home.
Most of crypto is a fraud perpetrated by "technical" people on non-technical people. The mathematics may be legit. (I don't really know. I am not a PhD. Neither are most of you.) But the use cases are demonstrably not legit and driven by speculative greed and social proof.
The second worst aspect of this is that many of these technical people have convinced themselves of the legitimacy of the crypto industry and can credibly claim to have good motivations. They are, for the most, victims of self-delusion and confirmation bias.
The worst aspect of this is that a generation of impressionable citizen investors is being trained to speculate on intrinsically worthless "assets" in the mistaken belief that they are participating in some social or technical revolution. They are not.
The atmosphere of sheer panic among VCs these days is disconcerting. If I was an LP, I would be sitting on my hands right now. Up and down the capital stack, people have lost their wits, if not their minds.
How do I know? Two things: (1) speed and (2) strategy drift.
(1) Speed. Things are moving so insanely fast there is literally no way anyone is doing any due diligence or actual research at all. No one is asking hard questions. Since "everything goes up and only up" better go faster.
Index closes $200 million dedicated seed fund to intensify multi-stage thesis tcrn.ch/2PJPaSJ via @techcrunch
@TechCrunch What I love about this is the framing. Index's roots were in taking early stage bets on European startups when almost no one else believed Europe could generate great VC returns. But Index did.
@TechCrunch Index was early and high-conviction. And it seems Origins is returning Index to those roots.
I'm not sure this is true, but I am starting to think it might be. Thesis: seed funds and "accelerators" basically can no longer work together. Choose one path and you self-select out of the other.
The best seed funds, like Angular, have gotten pretty good at adding a ton of value and connecting portfolio companies with customers and investors. We're willing to write big checks and build great syndicates - and in many cases, we add a lot of signaling power.
If you have a great seed fund onboard, you don't really "need" the benefits of an accelerator - and they are probably not worth the significant dilution that they involve. The seed funds should get you to the Series A.
Secret of early-stage investing in a four easy steps:
1. Develop a strong internal sense of what "truly great" looks like. This is the key step. Get this wrong and the rest is irrelevant. Here you must be intellectually honest and very humble. "Truly great" is a matter of fact not opinion. A matter of past not future.
The best way to do step 1 is to encounter truly great. Work at a company that is truly great. Work at a VC firm that is truly great and invests in companies that are truly great. Constantly ask: "did I earn the right to this opinion about greatness?"