Frist, Omicron learned how to read bit.ly/3texqjz

But it gets weirder ...

Omicron also uses different mechanisms for mutations that change amino acids and those that are 'silent'.

It somehow seems to know what the effect of the mutation is going to be. Amazing.
Let's compare silent and functional mutation statistics for Omicron and the the other variants of concern.

First, silent mutations. Variants have on average 7.1 silent mutations, with a STD of 2.4

Assuming a Gaussian distribution, Omicron looks like it fit right in:
The same analysis for the 'functional', amino acid changing, or 'non-synonymous' (NS) mutations.

Average # of NS mutations for other variants is 23.1 with STD of 10.

Here, Omicron clearly does not belong to the group of other VOCs.
The ratio dNS/dS, should be a reasonable value. My Monte Carlo simulations of random mutagenesis for SARS genomes came up with an average ratio of 3.5

That is exactly the value for the average of the other variants. Omicron is 6.2, because of the extreme dS value.
* Correction: extreme dNS value
While analyzing the silent mutations in all the variants on the beautiful website covariants.org I noticed something striking: the large majority of silent mutations are C->T changes. Check it for yourself ...
There are 4 nucleotides (ATGC) that can be mutated into the remaining 3, so there are 12 possible mutations. If they have an equal change of occurring, you expect to see each mutation 8.33% of the time.

But C->T occurs 63% of the time in silent mutations in the variants.
What is going on here?

Mutagenesis occurs through 2 different mechanisms:

1. When the RNA genome is copied by RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp), mistakes are made resulting in mutations.

2. "RNA editing" by the mammalian host cell can change the sequence directly.
RNA editing is limited to very specific nucleotide changes, and the C->T mutation is a hallmark of a specific class of enzymes (APOBECs) that can convert a Cytosine to a Uracil (C->U), which gets processed like an Inosine (I).
So, apparently more than half of the silent mutations in SARS2 variants are produced by an RNA editing enzyme that changes a C to a T.

The nice thing about silent mutations is that they are *usually* not selected for or against. So they inform unbiased about mechanisms at work
Interim conclusion:

Half of the mutations in SARS2 are caused by low-fidelity replication (RdRp), and the other half is caused by RNA editing resulting into C->T substitutions.
Because silent mutations aren't biased by selection pressure, they accurately reflect the mechanisms that produce them.

Those same mechanisms should then be responsible for functional mutations.

Are they?
This is where it gets interesting.

In Omicron, the functional/defining mutations have too few C->T mutations. And the difference if shocking.

They are not produced by APOBEC RNA editing.

See picture below. Just look of the density of C>T mutations highlighted in green.
There are 2 mechanisms for producing mutations:

1.Low fidelity replication.
2. RNA editing

Omicron knows which of these to employ, depending on the effect of the mutation:

Silent (ineffective) mutations use 45% of 1 and 55% of 2.
Functional (effective) mutations use only 1
That is quite smart for a virus, which is basically a piece of RNA code.
Still waiting for the zoonati (you know who you are) to explain this to us.
We will give the zoonati (@stuartjdneil, @macroliter) a couple of weeks (they may be busy) to come up with a good (scientific) explanation for this anomaly.

Hopefully they won resort to ad hominem attacks to hide their insecurities.

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More from @tony_vandongen

14 Dec 21
Omicron: Silent Mutations Redux.

Omicron appears to have very few "silent" (S) mutations, compared to the large number of “functional” (NS) amino acid-changing mutations

The ratio dN/dS in Omicron is 41/4 = 10.25

Is there something wrong with that?
If you make random substitutions of nucleotides in the genomes of corona viruses you get a dN/dS ratio of ~3.5

This is to be expected, because changing the 3rd base of a codon usually doesn’t change the amino acid.

That is not that different from 10.25 in Omicron, is it?
For a proper perspective. lets look at the dN/dS ratio for all the corona virus predecessors of Omicron.

The table below shows the "percentage of non-synonymous mutations" in the genomes of Alpha through Iota.

Many zeros, highest is 12%, average is 1.5% Image
Read 14 tweets
8 Dec 21
A Moderna patent (US 9587003) filed in 2017 contains a DNA sequence that ended up being the unexpected insertion of the notorious Furin Cleavage Site (FCS) in SARS-CoV-2.

Its devastating effect on infectivity and transmission in the pandemic are well-documented.
Interestingly, Ralph Baric in the University of North Carolina (UNC) has tested vaccines for Moderna, and is also the world's expert in engineering hybrid versions of corona viruses.

No that couldn't possibly be connected ...
There are 2 baffling aspects op the FCS insert: the presence of a Proline (P) which is suboptimal, and the CGG-CGG codon pair encoding two Arginine residues, which extraordinary rare (1 in 2 million).

Both features are found in this patent.
Read 5 tweets

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