Thread by @ClintEhrlich

There's an underrated dimension to the crisis in Kazakhstan.

It's the interplay of Russia and China. 🇷🇺 🇨🇳

A quick thread... 🧵

Many Western pundits claimed that Russia's deployment of troops was, in part, a rebuke to China.

Here's the @AtlanticCouncil arguing that "it's a message to Beijing."

This argument never made much sense to me.

Beijing and Moscow have a shared interest in:

1. The stability of Kazakhstan and Central Asia as a whole

2. The failure of mass uprisings in Eurasia, particularly ones linked to the West and/or Islam

But I had to give the argument more credence after @DrRadchenko linked to excerpts of a press conference by a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman.

They seemed to suggest that Beijing was, in fact, miffed about the CSTO operation in Kazakhstan.

First, the spokesman, Wang Wenbin, emphasized that China viewed the situation in Kazakhstan as an internal matter.

Translation: Foreign powers shouldn't be involved.

Second, when asked *directly* about the Russian troop deployment, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesman simply reiterated his earlier position.

Translation: When we say foreign powers shouldn't be involved, that includes Russia and the CSTO.

But the plot thickened when China's President, Xi, issued a public statement.

He lauded the decisive actions of Kazakhstan's President, Tokayev, to address the crisis.

hindustantimes.com/world-news/chi…

Xi's statement was significant in two respects:

1. It described the situation as a crisis instigated by external actors, not an internal matter

2. It was issued *after* Tokayev had asked for and received CSTO military support, so it implicitly approved of that choice

What was implicit four days ago has become explicit today:

China now officially endorses the Russian-led CSTO operation in Kazakhstan.

That was just confirmed in a call between China and Russia's chief diplomats.

reuters.com/world/asia-pac…

In hindsight, what should we make of the about-face by Xi's government?

Why did China seem to condemn Russia's intervention in Kazakhstan... only to suddenly praise it?

Here's my working theory:

Based on the closeness of their bilateral security relationship, China expected to be consulted before any Russian troop deployment in Kazakhstan.

Given the tenor of the initial Chinese statement, it seems like that didn't happen.

However, China was not *inherently* opposed to the Russian operation to stabilize Kazakhstan.

Once the urgency of the crisis abated, and Russia had time to communicate its intentions, China and Russia were on the same page.

Shared interests prevailed.

The timing of the Chinese praise is also notable.

It came right as it was announced that Russian troops would start withdrawing from Kazakhstan.

This likely allayed Chinese concerns that RU forces might stay in Central Asia permanently.

theguardian.com/world/2022/jan…

It also appears that the operation was successful, i.e., Kazakhstan has been largely stabilized.

This lowers the risk to China for publicly endorsing it.

Previously, it was possible it would fail, or that protesters might be shot en masse.

It's easy to applaud something that's already worked.

And that is ultimately what China has done with respect to Russia's intervention in Kazakhstan.

They've said, "Great job, guys! Glad it worked out. Now please leave like you've promised."