huf.hl Profile picture
Jan 11, 2022 6 tweets 3 min read Read on X
FARMING UPDATE: 11 January 2022.

Really nice uptick in the portfolio this morning driven by 3 high conviction plays. See thread below 🧵

$1.64m / 531.2 ETH Image
1. We've been adding to $SCREAM, xSCREAM, and FTM-SCREAM LP at $60ish the past 48 hours (now $94). This has netted us over 12 ETH in profits. ImageImage
2. We have been building and staking a position in $CREDIT for the past 48 hours, average entry $2.29 (now $5.53). This has made us another 5 ETH. Staking APY is currently 241.88% APY Image
3. We bought a lot more $BTRFLY at $1984 yesterday as outlined in real-time on my feed. It was too good an opportunity to pass on and is so far +28% inc. rebases. This has added another 3 ETH to the portfolio. Image
Overall, the only portfolio laggard has been $NEWO, which we had previously booked profits on at $1.24 and then decided to re-enter lower:

Still quite defensively placed but hopefully, the 3 plays above highlight our ability to take strategic plays with remaining stables during periods of heightened volatility whilst the rest of the portfolio is positioned for stability. Image

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More from @hufhaus9

Jul 9, 2024
LEVERAGE. ⚔️

It's a powerful thing that can be used to create generational wealth.

But MOST of the time it leads to liquidation emails.

How can we remain leveraged long whilst minimising this risk?

Some thoughts below... Image
📍The Liquidation Problem

Of the $2.4bn of deposits onto Hyperliquid, guess what total notional has been liquidated? (hint: image)

Basically, traders are losing their margin AND their unrealised gains.

How can we keep our gains when you have the right view? Image
📍Pair Trading - a solution?

Pair trading allows you to lever up on your asset views while reducing short-term liquidation risks because the longs and shorts are cross-margined.

It capitalizes on the unique way correlation works in crypto.

Me and @omazett did the maths..
Read 8 tweets
Jun 20, 2024
Here's a statistical approach for thinking about pair trading ✍️

This framework might help you no matter what your strategy is.

Let's take a deeper look at $ARB / $LDO, and how you might profit from this... Image
There are 2 ways of pair trading:

1) Narrative based
2) Statistical Arbitrage

Most trades on Pear Protocol are narrative trades i.e. you build a story why Asset A will outperform Asset B (in any market condition) and enter a long/short pos.

Here we'll focus on 2) Stat-Arb Image
Q1 - "Is there a statistical relationship between these two assets?"

Usually we jump to correlation for this (see below image lol).

More important than correlation, is this relationship between $ARB and $LDO constant over time? AND does it mean revert when it deviates away? Image
Read 10 tweets
Nov 17, 2023
wtf does this mean? and will it impact the price of $BTC?

some thoughts below...
1. If you, as a retail buyer want to buy $IBTC (the iShares spot bitcoin ETF), then you'd go to your broker/online platform and swap your $ for shares in the ETF. The broker would go and buy the shares on the exchange (Nasdaq) on your behalf. Easy. Image
2. This is what we call the 'secondary' market. The shares already exist, and you can buy them at the market price. But what if there are no ETF shares available in the secondary market?
Read 14 tweets
Jun 26, 2023
These are the key dates and timeline for the BlackRock Spot Bitcoin ETF

This is how I'm positioning over the coming weeks...
Recap: Grayscale sued the SEC last yr for not letting them convert GBTC to a spot ETF

The court decision is due out any time in the next few wks/months (the clock is ticking) and paves the way for a potential spot ETF *if* successful

BlackRock filing now is NOT a coincidence.
Let's talk dates and trading.

June 26-30: $BTC market has quite a lot of option OI expiring this Friday.

View: Chop, with looming Binance headline risk.

Positions: flat w/ stink bids between $28.4 - $29.2k due to long liquidations and/or ARK/21shares ETF rejection.
Read 6 tweets
Jun 25, 2023
People don't really understand what Blackrock is, or what they do.

So let's go inside...
But first a little about their founder and CEO Larry Fink, since it will be important later
Larry joined Wall St in 1976. He was smart and made money. He pioneered the idea of debt securitization (packaging up different loans as bonds). He then ran the trading desk for those Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS). Yes, those bonds that led to the 2008 GFC 🤯

*smiles*
Read 26 tweets
Mar 12, 2023
Bull and Bear Scenarios (in fictional quotes):

🐂

"SVB depositors will be made whole" - FDIC/Treasury

"We have received the full $3.3bn" - Circle

"Due to recent events in the banking sector, we felt it was prudent to postpone this month's planned rate hike to April" - Fed
🐻

"50% 'advanced dividend' for uninsured depositors, rest later" - FDIC

"People were trading USDC in anticipation of profits, and thus it's a security" - Gary Gensler

"They are bailing out Big Tech and Silicon Valley with your money!" - Donald Trump

"Long" - Jim Cramer
There's also "SVB has been acquired by XYZ bank" 🐂

I'm positioning for a squeeze higher. Buying $1500 strike 17 March 2023 expiry calls at 0.02 ETH ($29) per option
Read 5 tweets

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