Four big ideas from the global evidence: 1. It's milder (different than "mild"). 2. It's fast. 3. It's a big problem for the unvaccinated + hospital systems. 4. It's worse in the US.
1. It's milder (different than "mild")
The virus's upper-respiratory replication combined with immunity from vaccines and natural infection seem to be responsible for the global evidence of a divergence between case growth and deaths.
This is one of the most important articles I'll write all year—and the most complete framework for how I'm thinking about progress, public policy, and a better future for all Americans:
Think about how often scarcity has been the story of the pandemic:
- First, we were told to not wear masks, bc there weren't enough.
- Then we were told to not get booster shots, bc there weren't enough.
- Now some ppl are worried about hoarding tests, bc there aren't enough.
Now think about how supply side snafus have also become a major storyline in the economy
- We didn't invest in port technology, and now we have a supply bottleneck at the ports
- We watched legal immigration collapse for years, and now we have a labor shortage
An argument I see a lot on here: ~Web3's problems are the same ones email and mobile Internet had, which means Web3 *is* the next mobile Internet!~
No. Just bc two things share the same failures doesn't mean they'll follow the same success path.
It's "analogy by failure."
"Analogy by failure" in Web3 debates doesn't prove Web3 will fail. It doesn't prove anything. It's just a fallacy.
If I tape dung to a cup and say it's a radio, that's a failure too. I can say "you idiots, email also failed once" but that doesn't change that it's cup-dung.
It's really the proving too much fallacy, but I've found pitiful engagement on citations of PTM, and I think we should just rename it for the Internet something more intuitive, since "My thing is failing in all most auspicious ways" is the way this argument typically appears.
Feat.:
- supersonic travel
- carbon removal
- SpaceX's big fat cheap rocket
- the first cancer vaccines
- flying cars
- unraveling the mystery of proteins!
It’s impossible to ignore the fact that the Omicron wave—and the reactions to Omicron from officials—has emboldened a group of Americans who were never really Anti-Vax but are now very, very Vaxxed And Done With All Of This.
It’s not like the Vaxxed And Dones were born yesterday. This group has simmered, flared, maybe tipped the VA election.
But I’m getting the sense that Omicron is going to be an inflection point in ppl demanding an overturning of COVID coverage, attitudes, and policy.
I’m not sure I’d count myself among the Vaxxed and Done. But I’m not trying to endorse or criticize their position here.
My larger point is the Omicron wave seems to be deepening a wedge within the pro-vax (and largely Democratic) cohort, and that’s interesting and important.