Vaccinated America has for months been splintering into two big camps: "We still need widespread COVID precautions" vs. "We just need to move on."

Omicron has deepened that divide.

So I wrote about the rise of the "Vaxxed and Done."

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
This is my best effort at summarizing the views of the "Vaxxed and Done."

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
This is my best effort at summarizing the opposition to the "Vaxxed and Done" philosophy.
Any attempt to summarize a viewpoint you don't entirely agree with is a risky thing.

But the purpose of this piece is neither to endorse nor explode the Vaxxed and Done ideology, but to recognize its emergence as a really important phenomenon.
I think there would be more room for a larger third category—"Vaxxed and Cautious Until Omicron Burns Through and Then Prepared to Be Done"—that would be larger if more people had confidence that many COVID precautions (eg in schools) weren't de facto indefinite.

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More from @DKThomp

11 Jan
NEW POD: The world of Omicron facts with data wizard @jburnmurdoch

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/omi…

Four big ideas from the global evidence:
1. It's milder (different than "mild").
2. It's fast.
3. It's a big problem for the unvaccinated + hospital systems.
4. It's worse in the US.
1. It's milder (different than "mild")

The virus's upper-respiratory replication combined with immunity from vaccines and natural infection seem to be responsible for the global evidence of a divergence between case growth and deaths.

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
2. It's fast.

In Gauteng, Omicron wave trough-to-peak was about 3x faster than Delta. In London, NY, and DC, case growth is peaking much faster than previous waves.

As @jburnmurdoch says: Hard to be certain how much of this is the virus vs behavior shifts. Image
Read 6 tweets
9 Jan
An argument I see a lot on here: ~Web3's problems are the same ones email and mobile Internet had, which means Web3 *is* the next mobile Internet!~

No. Just bc two things share the same failures doesn't mean they'll follow the same success path.

It's "analogy by failure."
"Analogy by failure" in Web3 debates doesn't prove Web3 will fail. It doesn't prove anything. It's just a fallacy.

If I tape dung to a cup and say it's a radio, that's a failure too. I can say "you idiots, email also failed once" but that doesn't change that it's cup-dung.
It's really the proving too much fallacy, but I've found pitiful engagement on citations of PTM, and I think we should just rename it for the Internet something more intuitive, since "My thing is failing in all most auspicious ways" is the way this argument typically appears.
Read 4 tweets
7 Jan
What's the most incredible, statistical-outlier accomplishment in U.S. major sports history?
My two nominations:

1) Wilt Chamberlain's 1961-2 season.

He averaged 50 points/game and 40 shots. Those aren't just records. They're both THIRTY PERCENT HIGHER than the all-time no. 2! (via @billbarnwell)
2) Wayne Gretzky has 700 more career assists (or 57% more) than the no. 2 assists leader. What!?

records.nhl.com/records/skater…

For reference: That would be like home-run leader Barry Bonds finishing his career with 1,200 HRs. He has 762.
Read 7 tweets
7 Jan
New pod on the most important sci-tech innovation in the world, with the great @elidourado!

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/pla…

Feat.:
- supersonic travel
- carbon removal
- SpaceX's big fat cheap rocket
- the first cancer vaccines
- flying cars
- unraveling the mystery of proteins!
🔥🔥@elidourado on progress and the pandemic:
💉💉@elidourado on how mRNA technology and synthetic protein design could come together to provide a one-two punch against cancer
Read 6 tweets
31 Dec 21
It’s impossible to ignore the fact that the Omicron wave—and the reactions to Omicron from officials—has emboldened a group of Americans who were never really Anti-Vax but are now very, very Vaxxed And Done With All Of This.
It’s not like the Vaxxed And Dones were born yesterday. This group has simmered, flared, maybe tipped the VA election.

But I’m getting the sense that Omicron is going to be an inflection point in ppl demanding an overturning of COVID coverage, attitudes, and policy.
I’m not sure I’d count myself among the Vaxxed and Done. But I’m not trying to endorse or criticize their position here.

My larger point is the Omicron wave seems to be deepening a wedge within the pro-vax (and largely Democratic) cohort, and that’s interesting and important.
Read 4 tweets
22 Dec 21
I wrote about the mystery of the moment: Is Omicron less severe?

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

I’ve seen the real-world data. I’ve seen the lab conclusions. It’s not a clean picture. But I have a tentative answer.
The severity conundrum contains an easy & hard question.

The easier Q: Is O milder than previous strains for ppl w/ immunity from infections/vaxx? The answer at this point leans strongly toward yes.

The hard Q: Is O *intrinsically* milder? The evidence here is much more uneven.
What I wanted to do with this piece is provide a synthesis of the real-world and lab conclusions, with all the proper caveats, on Omicron and severity

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

This thread provides a brief summary, but I'd encourage you to read the piece to get the full flavor.
Read 9 tweets

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