Share this page!

Michael Lin, MD PhD 🧬 Profile picture
Twitter logo
11 Jan, 6 tweets, 2 min read
Making a new COVID-19 metathread for 2022.

Previous 2020-2021 COVID-19 metathread is below

2022.01.01. Recommending the 3M Aura as a speakable, breathable, comfortable, affordable N95 mask.
2022.01.04. Reiterating my concerns that molnupiravir's low efficacy is not worth the risk of creating highly mutated viruses, with similar opinions from Danish MDs and an admission from a Danish official that its approval skipped normal requirements.
2022.01.04. Wondering if we're getting $15.4B worth of value a year from the CDC.
2022.01.06. Suggesting we should better publicize reports that Omicron mostly causes hospitalizations by aggravating preexisting conditions, so those with preexisting conditions understand their risk.
2022.01.11. Summarizing data showing case-hospitalization rates at 25% in the Omicron wave vs pre-vaccine waves in Western countries, maybe 10% after adjusting for underreporting in this wave.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Michael Lin, MD PhD 🧬

Michael Lin, MD PhD 🧬 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @michaelzlin

Michael Lin, MD PhD 🧬 Profile picture
11 Jan
Some Omicron trends that we can now definitively see:
• Case hospitalization and fatality rates (CHR, CFR) in SA, Denmark, UK, Australia, US
• A guess at true infection hospitalization and fatality rates (IHR, IFR)
• Omicron peaking in many regions of the US
This follows a previous thread where we inferred from early SA data that the CHR was lower for Omicron than earlier waves due to prior immunity and lower virulence, and it would be similar in the West. (But still bad news due to very high case # s)
The SA data as of 2021/12/28 showed Omicron CHR and CFR at ~50% and ~15% of the 2021/01 peak.

The CHR is clearly ~50% of the year-ago peak. Deaths however are still creeping up and CFR now 20% of year-ago. Others observed older people got Omicron later in SA; may relate to that.
Read 25 tweets
Michael Lin, MD PhD 🧬 Profile picture
7 Jan
Since my analysis concluding 3 shots are required for the broad response needed against Omicron, and that #JnJers will need 2 shots of RNA, others like former Surgeon General @JeromeAdamsMD have reached the same conclusion
16M Americans are stuck in pre-Omicron limbo. We just need to admit J&J was like one shot of RNA, so they were behind 2xRNA-vaxxed and should be allowed to catch up. (And a 2nd J&J is not as good due to immunized clearance of the adenovirus vector)
Most #JnJers understand past mistakes of CDC and FDA on this and other topics have already degraded their credibility. This is why people are turning to writing articles to point out the problem. Credibility on this topic can only go up by addressing it
usatoday.com/story/news/hea…
Read 4 tweets
Michael Lin, MD PhD 🧬 Profile picture
6 Jan
On-the-ground look at Omicron from the Marin County PH officer.

- Cases peaked 2 wks ago
- 18/19 hospitalizations non-ICU (most don't even need O2, some asymptomatic)
- Older vaccinated well protected

Not sure Omicron truly done here but still...

sfgate.com/coronavirus/ar… Image
As @Merz mentioned Marin is one of the highest-vaxxed counties in CA. However it's not particularly young. The experience is "anecdotal" anyway but the PH officer relates it to past experience in the same location. It may serve as an example of what high vax rates can achieve.
@Merz The observation about low ICU rates is similar to what we've seen in London so far
Read 5 tweets
Michael Lin, MD PhD 🧬 Profile picture
3 Jan
While our attention was diverted by Omicron, FDA approved the viral mutagen molnupiravir (MOV) on the last business day before Christmas. The same time, Merck published that MOV doesn't reduce virus levels in the first 3 days. So patients will be shedding mutated virus for 3 days
I wrote in the Washington Post pointing out that widespread use of the drug increases the risk that we will create new immunoevasive variants. This could come from Delta; it may not be milder like Omicron. Since my piece is no longer browsable, I post it here as a public service
It's not just me. Most scientists or clinicians who know the data are worried. They include @JamesEKHildreth, Defense Health Agency director @peterweina, and former BARDA director @RickABright who were overruled either by FDA or by the prev admin on their MOV concerns
Read 7 tweets
Michael Lin, MD PhD 🧬 Profile picture
1 Jan
For a new year tried out a new mask, the 3M Aura N95 mask. Wow what a night and day difference. Didn't realize a mask could be this comfortable. Most amazing thing: speech comes through clearly.

My colleague @AbraarKaran is correct: CDC should be pushing better masks like these
These are $3 each and worth it. You can buy a 3pack (or 10pack) and rotate between them. On the 3 days off you let the mask air out to evaporate odors and let any viruses in them die off. More info on this thread.
Not only did HHS and CDC failed to push for mass manufacturing of these masks earlier (a problem since the previous administration when @RickABright was overruled on the matter) but CDC continued to push wrong or obsolete ideas about N95s
Read 13 tweets
Michael Lin, MD PhD 🧬 Profile picture
31 Dec 21
Going to wrap up 2021 with an optimistic thread.

If we can avoid creating worse variants with molnupiravir, COVID19 can finally become like the flu in 2022.

1/n
The SA experience, mirrored in Western countries so far, suggests Omicron IFR is an order of magnitude lower than previous variants. This is due to preexisting immunity and lower virulence of Omicron.

2/n
 nytimes.com/2021/12/30/wor…
Specifically, deaths per counted case in SA are 16% of the Delta wave so far, but cases are almost certainly undercounted several-fold.

3/n
Read 24 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @michaelzlin has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @michaelzlin!

Read all threads by @michaelzlin

:(